Predictions '08

Jesse Walker | November 4, 2008

At this point Joe Biden has a better shot than John McCain of becoming the next president of the United States, so I'll skip the race for first place and offer some educated guesses about how the more interesting candidates might fare:

Third Place: Ralph Nader's name recognition surpasses Bob Barr's, and he's currently outpolling the LP's man by about 2 percentage points. And no one ever went broke underestimating the electoral performance of the Libertarian Party. Nonetheless, if Barr draws mostly from the right and Nader draws mostly from the left -- which seems like a reasonable outcome to expect, though there are surveys showing Nader making inroads among right-wing populists -- then the Libertarian could come out on top. This time around, there are simply more disaffected conservatives than disaffected liberals out there.

Fifth Place: Chuck Baldwin should top Cynthia McKinney easily. You might at least expect her to do well in Georgia, the state that used to send her to Congress, but the Greens aren't on the ballot there.

Seventh Place: A month ago this would have been an easy call for Alan Keyes. But with Ron Paul's non-campaign polling 4 percent in Montana, he has a shot at it. If McKinney flops badly, he might even make it to sixth.

Last Place: Write-ins aside, I'm expecting Gene Amondson of the Prohibition Party to bring up the rear, despite his catchy campaign slogan: "Vote tradition, vote prohibition!"

Comments

|11.4.08 @ 8:09AM|#

I think Ron Paul should do better than 4% and with massive write-ins accross the country could do exceptionally well.

Go Ron Paul

A real Patriot who actually understands economics

VM|11.4.08 @ 8:18AM|#

hay Lt Dru - is ^^^ that twaddlenock just precious. d00d (above). go back to Ekon 79 with that weak-ass shit!

Fluffy|11.4.08 @ 8:18AM|#

In 2006 my wife made a cake with "F U Santorum" written in the icing for election night. [Yeah, I know, we're class acts. But it was fun to celebrate Rick's demise.]

This year she's making cupcakes instead, with the names of states written in icing, and when something we want to see happen in a given state [Chambliss going down in flames, Dole getting smoked, Franken NOT pulling it out, Paul causing McCain to lose in MT] we will celebrate with that cupcake.

It feels like I'm going to eat a lot of cupcakes.

Mosby|11.4.08 @ 8:21AM|#

You and your wife must be loads of fun to hang out with.

|11.4.08 @ 8:31AM|#

mmm cupcakes...

robc|11.4.08 @ 8:32AM|#

For whatever reason, KY doesnt allow write-ins for the presidential race.

Im guessing it is because you are actually electing a slate of electors.

|11.4.08 @ 8:39AM|#

Back during Perot's first run, I was convinced that ol' Ross would do way better on election day than the polls were indicating. Well, election day came and went, and Perot's performance was pretty much exactly what the polls said all along.

I figure the same will be true of Ron Paul's performance this year.

mike farmer|11.4.08 @ 8:43AM|#

I'm not sure McCain can be written off so easily. The problem is that we can't trust the media to report with integrity, so there's no telling what's really going on with voters.

I remember when the same thing was being said about a Kerry victory on election day. Who knows?

Kyle|11.4.08 @ 9:00AM|#

will they actually report write in candidate totals tonight? I would think it could takes days or weeks to count them, since you have to go through each ballot individually.

Bingo|11.4.08 @ 9:05AM|#

Prediction: The reaction of conservative pundits once the reality of their loss sets in will be entertaining.

KJL at The Corner has already offered this wonderful false dichotomy for voters out there

In other news: We're at war. How many of us remember this as we vote today? Unless, of course, a) we have lost a loved one to the war or b) we think Dick Cheney is a war criminal.

Fluffy|11.4.08 @ 9:07AM|#

Since this is the prediction thread, I am predicting 385 electoral votes for Obama.

|11.4.08 @ 9:09AM|#

338 EVs for Obama.

53.2%-46.0%.

58 Democratic Senate seats.

|11.4.08 @ 9:10AM|#

George,

Do real patriots write racist newsletters?

|11.4.08 @ 9:10AM|#

Since this is the prediction thread, I am predicting 385 electoral votes for Obama.

This is a biased prediction because you just want to eat cake.

|11.4.08 @ 9:13AM|#

Prediction:
302 Electoral Votes for Obama

Guy Montag|11.4.08 @ 9:14AM|#

[non-partisan, dispassionate, Keith Oberman voice]

Early exit polling by this reporter indicates that Senator Obama is getting 100% of the vote. 100% of the KKK members in Philly have indicated they voted Obama. 100% of union members indicated Obama. 100% of worshipers at the All Dulles Area Muslim Society, Adams Center (ADAMS)in Herndon, VA voted Obama.

Based on this reporter's sample, if John McBush gets a single vote in this election it will be due to blatant and obvious fraud!

We do have reports of Vice Presidential operatives, under the guise of "Army Reservists", having been dispatched across the country. We all know what that is about.

[/non-partisan, dispassionate, Keith Oberman voice]

TallDave|11.4.08 @ 9:16AM|#

I predict an Obama win, with free gas and mortgages for all. Evan Thomas said the MSM "glow" was worth 15 points in 2004, and this time their coverage was like unto the sun itself.

Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating the Obama-Rezko deal, and it looks very very bad:

"Agents and I talked about payoff, bribe, kickback for a long time, though it took them only a short number of minutes of talking with me while looking at the appraisal to acknowledge what they already seemed to know: The Rezko lot was grossly overvalued," Mr. Conner told The Washington Times Monday.

"Rezko paid the asking price on the same day Obama paid $300,000 less than the asking price to the same seller for his adjacent mansion," he said. "This begs the question of payoff, bribe, kickback."


In a wrongful-termination complaint filed last month in the Circuit Court of Cook County, Mr. Conner said his appraisal of the Rezko property, held in Rita Malki Rezko's name, was replaced with a higher one and he was fired when he questioned the document.

Can a Presdident serve his term from prison, or does that only happen in Douglas Adams books?

|11.4.08 @ 9:17AM|#

when something we want to see happen in a given state [Chambliss going down in flames, Dole getting smoked, Franken NOT pulling it out, Paul causing McCain to lose in MT] we will celebrate with that cupcake

Please tell me there are...other things...in those cupcakes. Or that you will be swilling booze at the same time.

Since I don't eat cupcakes, I will just be swilling booze.

TallDave|11.4.08 @ 9:21AM|#

We do have reports of Vice Presidential operatives, under the guise of "Army Reservists",

I heard many people in the Armed Forces even had the nerve to try to vote! Fortunately, responsible and vigilant Dem election officials courageously threw their ballots away.

cunnivore|11.4.08 @ 9:21AM|#

Prediction:

We will keep troops stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan at least until 2012.

We will continue to run up record deficits for the next four years.

The next SCOTUS appointee will be obsequious to the state and care little about the Constitution.

The War On Drugs will continue at its current level if not increase.

But who's going to win the presidential election? Damned if I know, but it'll be the puppet on the left or the puppet on the right.

Warty|11.4.08 @ 9:22AM|#

I'll be chewing bubble gum and kicking ass. And I'm all out of bubble gum.

|11.4.08 @ 9:26AM|#

I copied and pasted that all by myself!

Clubber Lang|11.4.08 @ 9:27AM|#

My prediction is pain.

|11.4.08 @ 9:28AM|#

Hey, TallDave, how's about you lay off the "black people committing crimes" shtick for a couple more weeks?

You've still got the stink of pimping the backwards B story on you, and I don't think it's going to come off for a long time.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:29AM|#

Prediction:

There will be a flame war between TallDave and joe no matter what happens tonight.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:32AM|#

As for the election I'm gonna go with what Larry Sabato said since he got it right the last time and in 2000:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008110301

|11.4.08 @ 9:32AM|#

I'll be chewing bubble gum and kicking ass. And I'm all out of bubble gum.

Warty, either put the glasses on, or start eating that trashcan.

cunnivore|11.4.08 @ 9:33AM|#

Oh, and I voted for Barr, even though I threatened to vote for McCain after Hopey O'Change's minions canvassed me three freaking times during the past week.

Also voted for a bunch of Greens because they were the only opponents the Democrats had in all the local races. Had to wash my hands afterward, though.

Zeb|11.4.08 @ 9:35AM|#

Prediction: in every presidential election from now on, the paranoid supporters of the losing candidate will complain that the election is being stolen by the other party's corrupt election officials.

Mike Linksvayer|11.4.08 @ 9:35AM|#

The market gives Barr a slightly better chance than Nader of clearing 1% of the vote (28% vs 20%). See Intrade.

I think the bigger question is whether either will clear .5%.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:36AM|#

I voted for Barr, voted for Warner, wrote-in my dog for Congress, and voted against the incumbent in all the local races.

cunnivore|11.4.08 @ 9:36AM|#

There will be a flame war between TallDave and joe no matter what happens tonight.

For the last time, though. Right? I can't imagine what the partisans will find to argue about after tonight's celebration of the illusion of popular control of govt is finished.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:37AM|#

"For the last time, though. Right? I can't imagine what the partisans will find to argue about after tonight's celebration of the illusion of popular control of govt is finished."

TallDave will find out via Hot Air that one of Obama's cabinet nominees knew a Palestinian in college or something, copy it from The Corner and paste it on a thread here, and that will be the next thing they argue over.

Kaiser|11.4.08 @ 9:39AM|#

"Prediction:

We will keep troops stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan at least until 2012.

We will continue to run up record deficits for the next four years.

The next SCOTUS appointee will be obsequious to the state and care little about the Constitution.

The War On Drugs will continue at its current level if not increase."

QFT


I voted Barr, then proceeded to vote against every incumbent to congress I could. Had to write in my own name once because the person running did not have anyone running against them.

Guy Montag|11.4.08 @ 9:45AM|#

[non-partisan, dispassionate, Keith Oberman voice]

New exit polling indicates that the only people getting votes besides Senator Obama are McKinney and Nader.

Nobody has voted for McCain and Bush anyplace in the country. We predict Obama will get every EV available from all 57 states, bringing his total above 500.

Any change from this outcome will obviously be due to Republican election stealing.

[/non-partisan, dispassionate, Keith Oberman voice]

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:45AM|#

"I voted Barr, then proceeded to vote against every incumbent to congress I could. Had to write in my own name once because the person running did not have anyone running against them."

I really fucking hate that. Gerrymandering needs to die. They should have computers do the redistricting somehow in a completely random fashion.

|11.4.08 @ 9:46AM|#

Prediction:
If the market goes down, Larry Kudlow will blame the election of Obama.

|11.4.08 @ 9:48AM|#

Wow, I am guessing by the early NH votes that Oabama is going to clean house. I sure hope so. God help us all if that idiot McBush wins.

Jiff
http://www.Ultimate-Anonymity.com

cunnivore|11.4.08 @ 9:48AM|#

BDB,

Rectangular District Amendment. I'm working on that one immediately after we pass the amendment that makes all federal laws null and void five years after passage.

|11.4.08 @ 9:52AM|#

Will no one rid me of this meddlesome anonymity guy?!?

TallDave|11.4.08 @ 9:52AM|#

Any change from this outcome will obviously be due to Republican election stealing.

Hey, you forgot racism!

cunnivore|11.4.08 @ 9:53AM|#

I should clarify, the RDA would require that House districts have at most two north-south boundaries and two east-west boundaries, with the only other permissible boundaries being state lines. This would make gerrymandering more than a couple of districts in each state next to impossible.

|11.4.08 @ 9:53AM|#

Barr and Nader do about the same; McCain wins by a small margin; joe gets almost as upset as he was during last season's Super Bowl.

Early voting was bad down here, so I voted this morning. Babar got his vote, which makes it four times in a row that I've opted for the LP presidential candidate.

Chuck|11.4.08 @ 9:54AM|#

I did the same as Kaiser--voted Barr for President (we have about a dozen names on the Pres ballot in Floriduh), and voted anti-incumbent on the rest of the ballot. I even voted not to retain the judges that were up (and I will continue to do so until we find some that will not sign no-knock warrants).

I am wearing all black today in mourning. I wish I could drink heavily but I am at work until after 9:30 tonight.

BDB|11.4.08 @ 9:54AM|#

Cunnivore--

Sadly the only way you could pass that would be the convention method of amending the Constitution. The Congresscritters would never let that one past them.

TallDave|11.4.08 @ 9:54AM|#

Oddly, this hasn't made much news either:

Florida Congressional candidate Eddie Adams Jr. (R) was admitted to Tampa General Hospital Sunday suffering from severe burns on the hands and arms. He will be undergoing additional skin grafts Tuesday.

A vandal tied a mattress to the underside of Mr. Adams pick-up truck. Friction with the road, and contact with the catalytic converter combined to ignite the bedding.

Head|11.4.08 @ 9:55AM|#

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