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Ethiopia's Quagmire
The U.S.-backed occupation runs into trouble:
Nearly two years after being driven from Mogadishu, Islamists have re-taken swathes of south Somalia and may have their sights again on the capital.
The insurgents' push is being led by Al Shabaab, or "Youth" in Arabic, the most militant in a wide array of groups opposed to the Somali government and military backers from Ethiopia, an ally in Washington's "War on Terror"....
Analysts say Islamists or Islamist-allied groups now control most of south Somalia, with the exception of Mogadishu, Baidoa where parliament is protected by Ethiopian troops, and Baladwayne near the border where Addis Ababa garrisons soldiers.
That is a remarkable turnaround from the end of 2006, when allied Somali-Ethiopian troops chased the Islamists out of Mogadishu after a six-month rule of south Somalia, scattering them to sea, remote hills and the Kenyan border.
The Islamists regrouped to begin an insurgency that has killed nearly 10,000 civilians. Military discipline, grassroots political work, youth recruitment and an anti-Ethiopian rallying cry have underpinned their return, analysts say.
[Hat tip: Dan Clore.]
|9.29.08 @ 9:39AM|#
Interesting how you put this up without comment Jesse. Do you think this is a good thing? Are you happy that lunatic radicals are taking over another part of the world?
|9.29.08 @ 9:52AM|#
I don't see this news as a commentary on American foreign policy so much as I see that sub-Saharan Africa is developing new ways of self-immolation. The end result is the same, only the means change.
|9.29.08 @ 10:09AM|#
How does this square with the claim that its the American
presence in Iraq that is responsible for the Islamist insurgency
there? As far as I know, there is no meaningful American presence
in Somalia.
What is the extent of our "backing" for the Ethiopian "occupation"
of Somalia? Purely verbal? Financial? What?
joe |9.29.08 @ 10:14AM|#
RC,
Americans are an occupying foreign army in Iraq. Ethiopians are an
occupying foreign army in Somalia. In Red Dawn, Russians were an
occupying foreign army in America.
Are you under the impression that the widespread observation that
the military occupation of other countries breeds resemtment is
somehow limited to Americans?
|9.29.08 @ 10:20AM|#
The meaningful American presence in Somalia may be oil.When we
intervened there in 92', Chevron, Amoco, Conoco, and Phillips had
exclusive concessions covering two thirds of Somalia. Conoco's
corporate compound in Mogadishu was made into a defacto U.S.
embassy a few days before the marines landed in the capital.
(this is from an L.A. Times piece from back then)
|9.29.08 @ 10:24AM|#
I am an Ethiopian. First and for most Ethiopins never approve of the somali invasion, and second the pupet gevonment of Ethiopia invaded somalia at the order of the american government, who is providing both finacial and miltary assistance the ethiopian dictator. In short the occopation of somalia is a proxy war of The american govt against the so called Islamist Terrorists.
Neu Mejican|9.29.08 @ 10:25AM|#
RC Dean,
Huh?
The Ethiopian army went in to oust an existing Islamist movement
that dates back more than a decade. Somalia is, at least in part, a
fight between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Eritrea has been funding the
Islamists...Ethiopia wants stable access to the water.
American's got involved and didn't make any friends, but not all
fights have something to do with us.
JMR|9.29.08 @ 10:29AM|#
All fights lately seem to have something to do with my wallet around tax-time...
Neu Mejican|9.29.08 @ 10:35AM|#
Naod,
That is interesting.
I was under the impression that it was the Ethiopian government
that was using the American war on terror as cover to do what it
has wanted to do for a long time. By saying "we are fighting your
Islamist enemies" they were able to get some funds and some
political cover in a bid to establish a friendly government in the
country that stands between Ethiopia and the water. Is that not
accurate?
Can you elaborate on the US relationship with the Ethiopian
government to help us get a better picture?
But of course|9.29.08 @ 10:39AM|#
The religion of peace.
Are you happy that lunatic radicals are taking over another
part of the world?
Matt Welch probably is.
EJM|9.29.08 @ 10:46AM|#
As far as I know, there is no meaningful American presence
in Somalia.
The U.S. has launched a few airstrikes over the past year or two
tied in with the situation there. Also, the USS Howard is one of
the ships currently surrounding the hijacked MV Faina. And, there
is a U.S. military base in neighboring Djibouti (apparently the
only one in sub-Saharan Africa).
|9.29.08 @ 10:53AM|#
brotherben,
Alabama is probably the best team in the nation right now. The
Gators apparently still have defensive trouble, grumble.
|9.29.08 @ 10:56AM|#
Pro Lib, I don't know if I'd go that far, Georgia shot themselves in the foot a whole bunch and that resulted in a lot of Bama points. But we do love us some Nick Saban down here ;)
|9.29.08 @ 11:08AM|#
May be people should read some of this before commenting.
http://tinyurl.com/3u964k
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/08/news/arms.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VJka6q16Os
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2008/06/12/ethiop19029.htm
http://tinyurl.com/ysmvtc
http://www.slate.com/id/2178793/
jacques|9.29.08 @ 11:12AM|#
The USA could disappear tomorrow and muslims will still be
fighting the: Buddhists in Thailand, Hindus in India/Kashmir, Jews
in Middle East, each other in M. East, Christians and animists all
over Africa, Coptics in Egypt, Christians and each other in
Lebanon, ...
In each conflict, it is the muslims who refuse to accept the
"other".
DannyK|9.29.08 @ 11:12AM|#
John, this is Hit & Run. They still don't require ritual denunciation of the Evil Enemy in this blog.
EJM|9.29.08 @ 11:18AM|#
Since both Ken Menkhaus and Enough's John Prendergast are quoted in the story, I might as well plug Dr. Menkhaus's recent report for Enough.
jacques|9.29.08 @ 11:18AM|#
Islam will eventually destroy the earth. I think we all know that is the likely outcome of the advance of Islam combined with the advance of nuclear technology.
|9.29.08 @ 11:30AM|#
Islam will eventually destroy the earth
Wait, I thought that was the Hadron Collider.
Boston|9.29.08 @ 11:42AM|#
Wait, I thought that was the Hadron Collider.
Once Islam gets a hold of it.
|9.29.08 @ 11:56AM|#
I don't know if I'd go that far, Georgia shot themselves in
the foot a whole bunch and that resulted in a lot of Bama
points.
This could easily apply to the presidential campaign as well. Go
figure.
Are you under the impression that the widespread observation
that the military occupation of other countries breeds resemtment
is somehow limited to Americans?
Not at all. I was just inquiring about the common if often unstated
assumption that the American presence in a country brings
out the worst in people in a way that the presence of other
countries does not.
I mean, whaddaya know, it sounds like a UN "occupation" of Iraq
would have sparked exactly the same insurgency as an American
one.
Just sayin'.
Kolohe|9.29.08 @ 12:03PM|#
My problem with this and especially the Enough article linked
above is that it goes overboard to assert "US policy is the sux0r"
(with a slight undercurrent of "US is the sux0r") because it
assumes if p then q equals if not p then not q.
where p is 'us supports something'
and q is 'shit happens'
Everyone is eager to blame the US for the current situation in
Somalia - because of some specific but mostly 'moral' support of
Ethiopia. But Somalia (like Haiti) has been a clusterfuck and a
tragedy for the entire lives of everyone posting here, and well
before that as well.
|9.29.08 @ 12:06PM|#
I was just inquiring about the common if often unstated
assumption that the American presence in a country brings out the
worst in people in a way that the presence of other countries does
not.
If you're going to keep that much straw sitting around, I hope you
have a fire extinguisher.
Neu Mejican|9.29.08 @ 12:54PM|#
I mean, whaddaya know, it sounds like a UN "occupation" of
Iraq would have sparked exactly the same insurgency as an American
one.
Nah. A different dynamic would have altered the outcome in some
important ways I am sure. The UN, for instance, may have had the
wisdom not to dissolve the army and go so aggressively for
"De-Bathification." The resulting opposition to the occupation
would have looked a lot different.
Dan Clore|9.29.08 @ 12:55PM|#
Thanks for the hat tip, but you could always link to my
mailing-list, Smygo, that I posted this story on:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/smygo/
|9.29.08 @ 1:01PM|#
I think Kolohe and I are saying the same thing, joe. You got a problem with how he puts it?
tarran|9.29.08 @ 1:19PM|#
It is important to note that the U.S. Navy was flying close air
support missions in support of the Ethiopian invasion. This was as
much a U.S. operation as the toppling of the Taliban by the
Northern Alliance was in Afghanistan in 2001-2002.
The invasion was done at the behest of the U.S. government; the
rise of the Islamic Councils was deemed a threat to the U.S. The
fact that the Islamic Councils had popular support made this a
boneheaded move. The councils get their popularity from the fact
that they were providing the best system of conflict resolution/law
enforcement in the region and were superior to the despotic
warlords they replaced.
Incidentally, since the collapse of the former Marxist government,
the U.S. and other powers have been trying to create a new
governemnt to take over the territory. They have been using the UN
as the vehicle to accomplish this. It has proved a failure; most
Somalis ignored them until they arrived on the heels of the
Ethiopian army. They have no base of popular support. For all
intents and purposes, they are a collonial government imposed by
outsiders.
Neu Mejican|9.29.08 @ 1:22PM|#
tarran,
Interesting. But I still question the "at the behest of the US"
angle on this. Ethiopia has their own interests here and they are
certainly not unwilling to use their military to advance their
interests.
jtuf|9.29.08 @ 2:41PM|#
In related news, Somali pirates just seized a Ukrainian ship full of tanks and other heavy weapons.
DannyK|9.29.08 @ 3:13PM|#
The Russians are sending a warship to the area to liberate the Ukranian ship. As they say in the television biz, hilarity ensues!
james_joyce|9.29.08 @ 3:30PM|#
Somalia: pretty good argument for a free market, horrible argument for anarchism.
Neu Mejican|9.29.08 @ 4:09PM|#
jtuf,
Shit.
On Friday, Kenyan and Western officials said that an American
warship was steaming toward the hijacked ship to intercept it, and
the Russian Navy announced that it, too, was sending a warship, the
Dauntless. This could lead to a showdown with the pirates in the
middle of the Indian Ocean. With nearly two dozen hostages aboard a
floating ammunition depot, things could get complicated.
via NY Times
more
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/26/africa/27pirates.php
EJM|9.29.08 @ 4:30PM|#
Somalia: pretty good argument for a free market, horrible
argument for anarchism.
It ranks both
at the top of this year's "Failed States Index" and
at the bottom of this year's "Corruption Perceptions
Index".
Separately, I might as well plug the Somalia sections on Reuters Africa, allAfrica, and
ReliefWeb.
james_joyce|9.29.08 @ 5:38PM|#
It ranks both at the top of this year's "Failed States
Index" and at the bottom of this year's "Corruption Perceptions
Index".
I can't help but wonder, though, what would have happened if
everyone would've just left it alone. Not that anyone could really
do that and get away with it politically. I just wonder if a state
would have crystallized, if it would have remained an ultra violent
quagmire, or if it would have gradually grown into the
anarcho-capitalist wet dream that some libertarians fantasize
about.
I'm sure someone's written about it somewhere.
|9.29.08 @ 7:54PM|#
jacques | September 29, 2008, 11:12am | #
The USA could disappear tomorrow and muslims will still be fighting the: Buddhists in Thailand, Hindus in India/Kashmir, Jews in Middle East, each other in M. East, Christians and animists all over Africa, Coptics in Egypt, Christians and each other in Lebanon, ...
In each conflict, it is the muslims who refuse to accept the "other
Ron White: "I was doing a show at a military base with 50,000
soldiers, and I mentioned that fact. And a drunk woman yelled out
'And everyone of them is a lousy fuck!'. I wondered out loud, did
you ever think "well, maybe it's me'??
After 49,995, you have to wonder: 'Maybe I'm the common denominator
in this calculus of love'."
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