Obama Gets Separation: Convention Bounce or Palin Thud?

Radley Balko | September 2, 2008

The snapshot below is from RealClearPolitics' summary of the latest tracking polls.  Obama seems to have opened up his biggest lead since the primaries ended.

Whether that was positive reaction to his speech and the DNC coverage or negative reaction to McCain's VP selection I guess remains to be seen.

UPDATE:  Link fixed.  

Comments

|9.2.08 @ 12:38PM|#

Link is broken. It goes to some story about a kid who killed himself in Iraq.

|9.2.08 @ 12:38PM|#

Radley,

Rather than going to the Realclearpolitics page you intended, your link goes to a particularly depressing story about a soldier from Missouri.

|9.2.08 @ 12:53PM|#

Enjoy it while it lasts, Dhimmicrats!

McCain's going to pick up some Joementum tonight. Look out!

BDB|9.2.08 @ 1:08PM|#

I'm guessing it is a bit of both. Obama over 50% the first time.

Nick|9.2.08 @ 1:10PM|#

This Babygate scandal is really getting rich.

The Right, who have eternally criticized identity politics and political correctness, are arguing that Palin "wouldn't be asked these questions if she were a man," (pointing out RFK, who had 10 kids and a pregnant wife when he ran for president.)

The Left, who have long defended the rights of working mothers and freedom from traditional gender roles, are reaming Palin for not being a good mother, for going back to work three days after her Down Syndrome baby was born and for accepting the VP nomination when her teenage daughter was pregnant.

The hypocrisy on both sides is hilarious to an impartial observer who really doesn't give a damn whether her teenage daughter is pregnant. I agree with the Right's point (the Left seems to be foaming at the mouth to do anything possible to discredit the pick) and I also see the point of the Left that this is proof that her advocacy of abstinence-only education doesn't work (and it looks like she too, was impregnated before being married - having her first baby 8 months after eloping.)

It's going to blow over and one month from now, people won't have any feeling towards it whatsoever. How fickle is the chattering class...

BDB|9.2.08 @ 1:12PM|#

If Obama can hold it at 50% give or take a few into next week, that's the ball game.

Warty|9.2.08 @ 2:04PM|#

I vote "noise".

What was the earlier depressing link?

hotsauce|9.2.08 @ 2:23PM|#

Considering the bump is less than other recent candidates have received (or so I read earlier today), a better framed post would read "Palin bounce or convention thud?"

|9.2.08 @ 2:55PM|#

If you read the same story to that effect that I read in RCP today, hotsauce, you should note that it doesnt' include today's tracking polls, which show a larger lead than yesterday's.

Also, the Republicans are in the midst of what's supposed to be their VP bounce.

Which leaves us with three possibilities:

1. Meager convention bounce for the Dems, and a VP dip for the Republicans.

2. A solid convention bounce for Obama, and no VP bounce for McCain.

3. A huge convention bounce for Obama, and a standard-sized VP bounce for McCain.

I think we're seeing #2.

BDB|9.2.08 @ 3:05PM|#

But...TEH MOOSEBURGERS AND SNOWMOBILES!

hotsauce|9.2.08 @ 4:13PM|#

A VP bounce? Did Obama get one of those?

|9.2.08 @ 5:00PM|#

A much more relevant indicator is the "Battleground States" poles listed below the popular vote pole. It's still a total toss up, but Obama looks to be in better shape than McCain.

In 2004, Bush had 286 electoral votes and Kerry had 252. McCain can, therefore, afford to lose up to 16 electoral votes to Obama (that didn't go to Kerry).

Judging by the afforementioned poles, it looks like Obama may have turned NM (5 EVs) and IA (7 EVs) blue, meaning McCain now has only 4 EVs of leeway. VA (13 EVs) is the real surprise as it went to Bush by 8+% but is now a "Tie". CO is another one that is too close to call (less than a percentage point difference but slightly favoring Obama) but previously went to Bush.

|9.2.08 @ 5:01PM|#

A much more relevant indicator is the "Battleground States" poles listed below the popular vote pole. It's still a total toss up, but Obama looks to be in better shape than McCain.

In 2004, Bush had 286 electoral votes and Kerry had 252. McCain can, therefore, afford to lose up to 16 electoral votes to Obama (that didn't go to Kerry).

Judging by the afforementioned poles, it looks like Obama may have turned NM (5 EVs) and IA (7 EVs) blue, meaning McCain now has only 4 EVs of leeway. VA (13 EVs) is the real surprise as it went to Bush by 8+% but is now a "Tie". CO is another one that is too close to call (less than a percentage point difference but slightly favoring Obama) but previously went to Bush.

|9.2.08 @ 5:02PM|#

...damned server! Sorry for the double post.

|9.2.08 @ 7:36PM|#

hotsauce,

Once again, because the VP announcement and convention were so close together, it's tough to say whether we're seeing an Obama VP bounce. The Gallup tracker dropped 2 points the day after Obama picked Biden, but then went back up as the convention began.

Was that real, or just noise? Was there a VP dip, no effect, or a VP bounce?

I dunno.