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The Pennsylvania Primary Thread: Obamadammerung
The longest and most agonizing gap between primaries ends at 8 p.m.
Tonight, Pennsylvania gives a popular vote victory to Hillary
Clinton. Tomorrow, the candidates race to Indiana, the only truly
up-for-grabs state left in the primary season. (Obama's already in
Indiana, actually, getting a head start on the Clintons. I'm hoping
on a Pennsylvania upset just for the slapstick comedy of the Obamas
racing through the airport to arrive in the state and claim
victory.)
Carrie Budoff Brown and Ken Vogel have a fine guide to election-watching, pointing out that, unlike in some states (Maryland, Ohio), the cities and suburbs report their results before the scattered rural towns. Jon Vaught LaBeaume has hard data analysis at Election Dissection. The Ohio exit polls will be a good barometer of this race. Has Obama's white support gone up or down?
The Democrats. There are two ways in which Pennsylvanians could actually impact the Democratic primary. The first would be handing Hillary Clinton a tub-thumping landslide, a 20-point win in which she sweeps all but one county (Philadelphia). The second would be a miraculous Obama upset, as rural white voters un-clench their Bibles and muskets and vote for the skinny kid with the funny name. I'd give these scenarios a 10 percent and 5 percent likelihood of unfolding, respectively. Yes: a 5 percent chance of an Obama win.
Barring some sort of Clinton meltdown, Obama never had a chance to win this state. His goal was to keep the score close, and to improve on the pathetic performance he had with white voters in Ohio, to prove to party elders that the campaign bus will be safe if they hand him the keys. Even after a solid month of negative storylines, polling suggests that... it's working. Clinton's lead, which got as high as 26 points, is down to an average of 6 points. Obama has plateaued at around 44 percent of the vote. In recent contests, the undecided vote has broken for Clinton, so I'm betting on a 55-44 victory for Clinton. What could change that: high rural turnout, the Philly machine successfully cutting into Obama's usual black support, or the Philly burbs (which could make up 25 percent of the total state)
The Republicans. I think Ron Paul blew an opportunity here. In 2000, Pennsylvania Republicans voted a full month after McCain was knocked out of the GOP race. The result: A fairly weak 73.5 percent victory for George W. Bush. More than a quarter of Republicans refused to back their candidate. With Mike Huckabee and Paul on the ballot, the last anti-McCain holdout had, I believe, a chance to scare up 15 to 20 percent of the vote. Instead he made a few terribly botched statements that led people to believe he'd left the race and took two perfunctory trips to the state. He spent yesterday in... Montana.
Still, don't expect McCain to get some Saddam-esque vote margin. The highest GOP turnout will be in the northern, rural 5th and 10th districts, among the kind of voters who'd been casting ballots for Huckabee until he dropped out of the race. I'd give McCain 86 percent of the vote in a low-turnout primary, with 5 percent for Ron Paul and the rest to Huckabee or write-ins.
UPDATE 8:00: Daily Kos has exits, which show both a surge of older voters (vis a vis Ohio) and a substantial recovery for Obama from groups he lost in Ohio.
8:13: The regional exit poll is interesting: Obama mopped up in Philly (69-31) and the burbs (62-37), which he needed to do to avoid humiliation. Clinton's margin is coming from the northeast and west of the state. If this holds, though, Clinton's winning by less than 10 points.
8:23: After all the fuss about gun-clinging, guess how much of the electorate owned the fearsome things? Thirty-seven percent. Clinton won them handily, and Obama won non-gun-owners.
8:27: On my TV screen, Howard Fineman says Obama's strategy was to grind Clinton down in Pennsylvania and bankrupt her for the rest of the primaries. It's the Verdun of primaries!
8:33: Lowest common denominator watch: Ten percent of voters think neither Obama nor Clinton is "trustworthy." Clinton won them by 55 points.
8:34: Two-thirds of people think Clinton is "in touch with" them. How many think Obama is in touch with them? Two-thirds. So much for bittergate.
8:50: Every network projects for Clinton with 1 percent of the vote counted.
8:53: Interesting. CNN has adjusted its exit polls down, with seniors dropping from 38 to 33 percent of the vote, under-29s rising from 10 to 12 percent.
9:12: Jim Geraghty hears that Clinton might launch ads mocking Obama for turning down debate invitations. That would be stupid. She ran that ad when Obama ducked Wisconsin debates, and then he pulverized her in the state primary.
9:16: I way overestimated McCain's support, as he's struggling to get 72 percent in his basically uncontested primary.
9:41: One group Clinton improved on, compared to Ohio: Weekly churchgoers. (I'm done quoting the exits as they keep morphing.)
9:46: Marc Ambinder explains why this doesn't matter:
If Obama keeps his pledged delegate lead to around 150, Clinton needs to win 70% of them on May 6 -- and if not, 80% of them after May 6.
That's more than next to impossible.
That's why I'm paying attention to Obama's weakness among certain groups of voters. It's encouraging, if you're a Republican. It's not encouraging enough if you're Clinton. Obama needed to melt down under the wave of controversies, but he merely wilted a little, then kept on moving.
10:10: I'm not watching Fox News; friends who are inform me that the Bradley Effect theory is getting pushed hard, with Obama expected to massively underperform the exit polls in the suburbs. It's the kind of thing we'll know by midnight.
10:36: I'll never understand exit polls. They're actually underestimating Obama's Philadelphia margin at the moment, by 3 or 4 points. This leads me to believe Fox's Bradley Effect proponent Pat Caddell was full of shit.
10:50: Meanwhile, the Democrats nearly won the Mississippi seat of Roger Wicker, the congressman who replaced Trent Lott in the Senate. Their candidate got 49 percent of the vote, so it goes to a 2-way runoff.
12:39: Hats off to the rEVOLution: Ron Paul will come out ofhis home state with around 127,000 votes, giving him around 974,000 votes total for the caucuses and primaries that have wrapped thus far. He'll undoubtedly hit one million for the whole primary season: More than Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, or John Edwards.
|4.22.08 @ 6:21PM|#
It's probably just wishful thinking, but I'd reverse those numbers and say she's got a 20% chance of winning by 10+ points. (OK, maybe a little higher - 25%...?), and almost no chance of winning by 20+ points.
Elemenope|4.22.08 @ 6:25PM|#
I'm gonna go for Clinton by 5. Which makes her basically as good as dead.
|4.22.08 @ 6:30PM|#
I want an income tax cut but my neighbor says that I am not a
"true" anti-tax guy because I don't give a fuck about his Estate
Tax. That makes me a Democrat to him.
(clinging to this shit, bros)
|4.22.08 @ 6:36PM|#
You think Paul botched it by not spending time in PA. It all
depends on what his goal is. If he were trying to impact the
election and the views of his party then you are right. If the
presidential bid were just a glorified way of raising millions
which he can later use on other projects then not campaigning makes
sense.
Paul never spent his funds as if he were seriously seeking the
nomination. It always appeared to me that his campaign was an
excuse to raise a lot of funds for something else. Under FEC rules
he gave give his funds to a non profit organization and he just
happens to have one that he runs. We'll see I guess.
|4.22.08 @ 6:47PM|#
"If the presidential bid were just a glorified way of raising
millions which he can later use on other projects then not
campaigning makes sense."
If Ron thought he was going to raise millions when he started he is
crazier than his detractors say. Nobody saw that coming at the
beginning, but that doesn't rule out your non profit conspiracy
theory once he started pulling in the dollars. Frankly its very
reasonable that he didn't know what to do with all that money,
headquarters was an iffy operation.
|4.22.08 @ 6:52PM|#
Hillary by eleven is my prediction. Took the average of the polls and added five. The only thing that troubles me is if the polls probably don't account for all the migration to PA, but much could be from the NY/North NJ area so that would probably help Clinton anyway, along with the Hispanics.
Kolohe|4.22.08 @ 7:04PM|#
"Jon Vaught LaBeaume has hard data analysis at Election
Projection. "
LaBeaume's site is called ElectionDissection.com. Election
Projection (.com) is a different site run by someone named Scott
Elliot.
|4.22.08 @ 7:29PM|#
Hillary by 8 . . . she bawls in front of the camera, Chelsea has a lesbian orgy induced orgasm, and Bill claims that Obama is actually the Grand Wizard of the KKK. On to Indiana.
|4.22.08 @ 7:34PM|#
Call me a goddamned moral relativist (which would be true), but Chelsea as a lesbian is much more appealing than Hillary as one.
Bryan|4.22.08 @ 7:37PM|#
shrike,
I have no love for cutting the estate tax either. My kids won't
have done shit to earn that money. Give it back to me at a reduced
tax rate while I'm alive. I'll spend it.
|4.22.08 @ 7:55PM|#
"I'll spend it." - Bryan
And you should. Enjoy it!
The most rational comment I have heard regarding this tax is this -
'What tax could be fairer than one levied on me AFTER I die?'
So - that is the one I will worry about least.
Caveat - If Herr Bush had not driven up future taxes by $5 TRILLION
then it might be different.....
|4.22.08 @ 8:02PM|#
Do you think there are any states that Obama lost to Clinton (count this one, but I don't think by 10) but that he could then beat McCain?
|4.22.08 @ 8:02PM|#
Bryan | April 22, 2008, 7:37pm | #
shrike,
I have no love for cutting the estate tax either. My kids won't have done shit to earn that money. Give it back to me at a reduced tax rate while I'm alive. I'll spend it.
What you talkin' 'bout Willis?
You already own your estate!
You made your money, you paid your taxes on it and you can spend it
how you want while you are alive.
If, however, you opt not to spend and instead save it to pass it on
to your kids then the Government takes a second slice of your pie.
Then it wonders why savings are down and debt is up.
|4.22.08 @ 8:07PM|#
The estate tax issue is one of the most bullshit issues ever (since it effects such a minute amount of folks, hey Taktix or Episarch, you'll never, ever qualify btw ;)), but it's a real tribute to the genuis of Luntz. He took this bullshit non-issue, repackaged it, and made it have real legs. The guy is unbearable, but he hit on something there. Give the devil his due...
|4.22.08 @ 8:10PM|#
Kwix
Jeez, you're absolutely right, I should have realized that there
were some obvious answers to that question...NY and CA will go
Democrat if a chicken was had the D beside its name...Ohio and Pa
though, there's the rub. Interestingly, I don't see a Democrat
becoming Prez without winning those two states, and Obama will lose
both. Interesting, because I think he will beat HRC. His effect may
be to make states like Alabama and Virginia a bit more competitive,
but still GOP, yet lose the race.
That guy is going to need either 1. a hell of a VP or 2. McCain to
do something really dumb
|4.22.08 @ 8:11PM|#
When I say "Obama will lose both" I mean to HRC. I'm very curious if the person who loses to HRC in those two states could then beat McCain...
|4.22.08 @ 8:15PM|#
Hillary by 4. I switched my party affiliation to Democrat to vote for Obama, because I feel he will bring the swiftest end to the war in Iraq and give our country a better face for the international community than we've had in decades.
bill|4.22.08 @ 8:18PM|#
There is no way at this time in history America is going to elect a black man or a woman.
B|4.22.08 @ 8:18PM|#
Why and the hell do you guys continue to talk about Ron Paul and
his vote totals? The guy is a fucking joke, totally insignificant
in the greater, or even lesser scheme of things.
Ron Paul blew an opportunity? For christ sake, you have to have an
opportunity before you blow one.
Nephilium|4.22.08 @ 8:19PM|#
Mr. Nice Guy:
I've gone on record here as saying that Ohio will flip to the
Democrats. I'm fairly certain that Satan - (D) would beat Jesus -
(R) in Ohio the way the Republican party has killed it's good name
with scandals.
Nephilium
|4.22.08 @ 8:31PM|#
8:27: On my TV screen, Howard Fineman says Obama's strategy
was to grind Clinton down in Pennsylvania and bankrupt her for the
rest of the primaries.
That's funny, Obama's using the same strategy that al-Qaeda's
number 2 was talking about last week. Coincidence?
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 8:37PM|#
Nephilium,
I challenge your estimate with this stupid, but potentially fun,
take: Marx(D) vs Lenin(R), who would win in Ohio?
|4.22.08 @ 8:45PM|#
Suggested REASON cover article: Go back over the last, say, 50
years, and look at the campaign promises of Presidential candidates
who were subsequently elected. See how many were kept. See how many
went totally in the opposite direction (e.g., "I'll lower taxes"
said by one who subsequently raises them; "I'll eliminate Cabinet
posts by someone who adds to them; "I'll cut the size of
government" by someone until whose leadership the size of
government grows.)
I'm just guessing here, but I'm betting the percentage of kept
promises hovers somewhere between 0-5%, depending on how picayune
the promises you include, and how generous you are at counting
something as the keeping of a promise.
This would raise the question, of course, as to why anyone cares
what promises Presidents make.
|4.22.08 @ 8:49PM|#
"That's funny, Obama's using the same strategy that al-Qaeda's
number 2 was talking about last week. Coincidence?" - Preemptive
Neil.
Not at all.
Obama is a secret Muslim.
McCain is a secret Commie guest of the Hilton Hotel chain in
Vietnam.
Hillary is biker lesbian Mongol.
Fear is in the air.
(shrike here - changed the name to guilt the guilty)
Yahoo Answerer|4.22.08 @ 8:51PM|#
Operation Chaos doe snot seem to be going as well as Rush
Limbaugh had hopped.
If Hillary either looses or wins but not by a landslide she is
toast.
Yahoo Answerer|4.22.08 @ 8:56PM|#
"Hillary is biker lesbian Mongol."
I remember an episode of the Simpsons set in a future where Lisa
was POTUS. In one scene she stated that she was proud to be "the
first heterosexual female president."
|4.22.08 @ 9:22PM|#
Ten percent of voters think neither Obama nor Clinton is
"trustworthy."
ie, 90% of voters are hopeless dupes.
Elemenope|4.22.08 @ 9:30PM|#
ie, 90% of voters are hopeless dupes.
No, Chris! They are just operating upon a less demanding definition
of "trustworthy".
Trustworthy adj.
1. deserving of trust or confidence; dependable; reliable
2. when given the chance, would not kill us all
The American people are working with def. #2.
BakedPenguin|4.22.08 @ 9:33PM|#
Operation Chaos doe snot...
You ever tell a deer to clean her nose? It just doe snot work.
|4.22.08 @ 9:35PM|#
I didn't have the stones to make a prediction about this
primary.
It's shaping up to be a six point Clinton victory. Six points is
exactly what the RCP Average and Surveys USA had as their final
results.
And, oh yeah, the sum total of the culture war crap among blue
collar voters in PA has been Obama slightly outpacing his
performance in Ohio among them.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 9:37PM|#
TEXAS POLYGAMIST TIPSTER AN OBAMA DELEGATE!
You all will not believe this! The Jawa Report is reporting that
the alleged tipster responsible for the raid on the Texas Compound
of Polygamists, is a Democrat Precinct Chair from El Paso County,
Colorado, and PLEDGED BARACK OBAMA DELEGATE #269.
This is confirmed, though buried in the stories, by both the Denver
Post and Salt Lake City Tribune.
We have the story and links now up at
www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com Click on url for my
name.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 9:40PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 9:37pm | #
HOLY SHIT!!!
I bet your sleuthwork will prove as effective as all your previous
efforts!
Keep up the good fight mein heir!
Also, I have a line for you on discounted cialis!
I get emails about it all the time! But you REALLY need the shit
homie. Really.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 9:43PM|#
I am calling this one for Mrs. Clinton. May this archive live forever as proof of my prediction.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 9:44PM|#
I mean 'mein herr'.
My german was learned by watching the movie Top Secret.
I can say, "There is a schnauzer in my leiderhosen" perfectly,
though
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 9:47PM|#
Dondero,
Whats your point? Why aren't you calling CNBC and Fox news with
this worthless drivel?
|4.22.08 @ 9:47PM|#
Wow - Obama is capturing the polyamorous vote according to
'Dondero'.
That is admirable - although the Amish may cancel that vote
out.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 9:49PM|#
Don't feel self concious Gilmore. It took me a few minutes just get the pun from the title.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 9:51PM|#
Kinda sad actually. German makes up roughly a third of English . . . I made myself depressed.
|4.22.08 @ 9:52PM|#
Can someone here fill me in on the Dondero funnies??? I haven't seen him post in long while prior to tonight. Is he now on the McCain bandwagon? Does he claim that JohnnyMac is a libertarian? That would be rich . . .
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 9:54PM|#
Neil | April 22, 2008, 8:48pm | #
LOL Clinton wins it I guess people were just to
"bitter".
Neil, please. try and spell
Florida Haole|4.22.08 @ 9:57PM|#
"That is admirable - although the Amish may cancel that vote
out."
As strict pacifists I would think the Amish would be more likely to
vote for Obama. Although, they might just vote for Paul in the
Republican primary.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:00PM|#
I'm new to posting here. Who the hell is this Dondero guy? Name
sounds familiar but can't place him.
You guys seem to have run into him before judging by the utter
contempt shown to his thread.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:01PM|#
jes' guessin' | April 22, 2008, 9:55pm | #
Gilmore,
a miniature schnauzer, you mean
[german accent]
I have now just checked, and, ja, i vas initially incorrect.
It is in fact a gargantuan Dachshund
lunchstealer|4.22.08 @ 10:02PM|#
For the record, I own three guns, and I voted (in Texas a while
back, not Penn) for Obama. Not that I'm decided on whether I'll
vote D in November (I won't if it's Hillary, maybe 50/50 if it's
Obama - otherwise voting L), but I wanted to cast a vote for
someone whose antiwar policy wasn't just revisionist
pandering.
Also for the demographic record, I hates me some WWE, and approved
of Obama's response, as being the most empty pandering thereto.
Hillary's looked forced, and McCain looked like he believed it.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:03PM|#
Naga Sadow | April 22, 2008, 10:00pm | #
Who the hell is this Dondero guy?
No von who matters. Zere are no real persons named Donderoooo
Angry African|4.22.08 @ 10:04PM|#
Look. This isn't the Rumble in the Jungle. It's not World War II. It's not even Tom & Jerry. It's more like Wrestlemania. A little bit of fireworks and a laser display. But it is really just make-believe. A show. A show that happens every few years. Lots of noise and lots of action. But fundamentally still just a show. Nobody gets hurt. Yes, I am talking about the US Presidential election. http://angryafrican.net/2008/04/22/storm-in-a-teacup/
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:04PM|#
FH,
Mrs. Clinton might have tapped into the hawkish Amish pacifists
that seem to escape most pollsters..
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:06PM|#
lunchstealer | April 22, 2008, 10:02pm | #
For the record, I own three guns,
Ahh, gut!
I have zwei. Von is for fighting, and von is for fun.
|4.22.08 @ 10:07PM|#
Since the Amish have no television or radio they are probably
unaware that Obama is a secret Muslim anti-flag pin guy.
Strictly based on principle is no way to go through life,
son.
(parodying Dean Wormer...)
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:08PM|#
Dem Pollster Pat Caddell just said on Fox News that Clinton is
"clobbering Obama" and will win by the mid-teens, maybe as much as
15%.
All are saying that this is great news for Republicans, and that
Republicans now want to run against Obama: Big Reason - Reagan
Democrats hate Obama.
WELCOME BACK TO THE GOP REAGAN DEMOCRATS!!!
|4.22.08 @ 10:09PM|#
MSNBC keeps showing that Nutter fascist, the guy who pushed the
smoking bans in Philly.
*shakes fist at TV*
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:09PM|#
Sorry Gilmore, already googled his name. It was funny just reading the posts under the links. What a fucking douche! He seems almost like a plant to discredit libertarians.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:10PM|#
Geez, remember all those Ron Paulists who "flirted with Obama"
immediately after Paul pulled out of the race a few weeks
ago?
Wonder how they're feeling now?
We're not hearing from any of those "Paul-Obamacans." The silence
from them is deafening.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:12PM|#
Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the Anti-War
so-called libertarians. They're the biggest loser here.
After all, Hillary said today that she would "Obliterate Iran" if
they attacked Israel. And the Reagan Dems in Northeastern PA, and
around Pittsburgh and even the northern Philly suburbs LOVE HER FOR
IT!
Florida Haole|4.22.08 @ 10:12PM|#
"MSNBC keeps showing that Nutter fascist"
Most people who seek or are in political office are nutter
fascists.
|4.22.08 @ 10:12PM|#
"Reagan Democrats hate Obama."
They won't vote for the first gay President. Sorry but between the
Ellen show dance, his bowling, and his wife calling him an
accessory, either he is very effeminate or gay, not that there is
anything wrong with that, just that Reagan Dems don't seem to like
that.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:13PM|#
The hawkish Amish, descendants of Amish Knights who survived the
Quaker wars, do not have television either and are unaware of Mr.
Obama's contempt for their religion and weapons, wooden guns shaped
like Amazon Goddesses that they clutch as they meditate.
Also, they want to level Iran too, but Mrs. Clinton got the word
out on that.
Onward to Indiana! The Clinton train is picking up steam!
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:14PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:12pm | #
Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the Anti-War
so-called libertarians
ja, und Neil. Und ze Donderooo
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:14PM|#
The real Dondero - me (and my cell # is 832-896-9505, call now
to confirm) - is a Bob Barr and/or Wayne Root for President
supporter.
I hope McCain does well. But only so as the lower level Republican
candidates like Tom McClintock, George Broun, Woody Jenkins, Sean
Parnell, et.al win for Congress!
Unless the LP screws the pooch and nominates a Lefty non-Celeb
Libt. like Mary Ruwart, or Steve Kubby, I'll be voting for the
Libertarian candidate for President, thank you.
|4.22.08 @ 10:14PM|#
"Most people who seek or are in political office are nutter
fascists."
Yes I know but this is personal. Philly has great bars and cold
winters. Not only when I visit do I shiver, but I also lose my
seat. Even though I don't drink like I used to, Nutter cost a
couple of bars a lot of my money.
Florida Haole|4.22.08 @ 10:14PM|#
Dondero, due to your phrasing I must ask: Are you saying LVMI people are not "real Libertarians"?
|4.22.08 @ 10:16PM|#
Pat Caddell doesn't know what he's talking about, if he even
said that.
With over half the vote in, she's up 8%. To get to 16%, she'd have
to win the remaining half of the vote 62-38. There are large areas
of the Philly suburbs that haven't reported yet. The margin is
going to come down a point.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:16PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:14pm | #
The real Dondero - me (and my cell # is 832-896-9505, call now to
confirm
Danke, Ich mรถchte nicht Geschlecht mit Ihnen haben
|4.22.08 @ 10:16PM|#
"I'm new to posting here. Who the hell is this Dondero
guy?"
The Bob Shrum of endorsements.
jes\' guessin\'|4.22.08 @ 10:18PM|#
Gilmore,
Nuthin' personal. Jes' callin' ya out fer yer bad jermin. BTW, it's
lederhosen not leiderhosen.
...and dachshund means 'badger dog', a dog designed to probe into
holes and fetch badgers (or gerbils?)
Just be careful with your German. I don't want you to get this
Dondero (German for 'Cleveland Steamer' nonetheless) all
excited.
Tryin' to be helpful.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:18PM|#
What the hell is a "Reagon democrat"?
The type of professed Democrat who voted for Reagan rather than
Carter or Dukakas.
lunchstealer|4.22.08 @ 10:20PM|#
Dondero, due to your phrasing I must ask: Are you saying
LVMI people are not "real Libertarians"?
Dondero's basic criteria for libertarianism is thus: Pro-choice,
pro-genocide. Anti-drug-war is icing on the cake, but not at all
required for libertarianism.
|4.22.08 @ 10:20PM|#
The type of professed Democrat who voted for Reagan rather
than Carter or Dukakas.
Known in contemporary parlance as a "Republican," they probably
didn't play much of a role in the closed Democratic primary
today.
Reagan Democrats? What, are skinny ties next? Somewhere, it's
always 1985.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:21PM|#
Guy,
I damn near fell out of my chair after reading your post. Reminds
me of a family guy episode where Peter, if I remember correctly,
says "As we all know, Christmas is the day when Jesus rises from
the dead to feast on the flesh of the living".
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:21PM|#
jes' guessin' | April 22, 2008, 10:18pm | #
Gilmore,
Nuthin' personal. Jes' callin' ya out fer yer bad jermin. BTW, it's
lederhosen not leiderhosen.
...and dachshund means 'badger dog', a dog designed to probe into
holes and fetch badgers
Ja, ja, zat is ze one.
If i uundershtaand vat you mean by ze Baadjer
ees, that ze one that makes it fiishysmellin?
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:24PM|#
Wow, during her inagugration victory speech, Mrs.
Clinton did not complain about the boys picking on the girl. But
she did just beg for money.
Now she is wanting to surrender Iraq. Maybe the pullout is so that
our troops will be safe from the blasts over Iran? She also wants
to make the military a lot bigger.
YES SHE CAN! YES SHE CAN! YES SHE CAN!
Now, onward to Indiana and win a few dozen more delegates! Need an
exciting convention and all.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:25PM|#
Guy,
Wouldn't that just be called an uncommitted voter?
Dondero,
Are you so sad a character that you have to get people pissed off
with you just so can get phone calls and pretend you have
friends?
|4.22.08 @ 10:26PM|#
Interesting discussion on MSNBC about counties that have flipped from Republican to Democrat in the runup to this race.
|4.22.08 @ 10:27PM|#
Listening to Hillary is giving me a stomachache. I just don't see the appeal of this person.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 10:27PM|#
I don't want you to get this Dondero (German for 'Cleveland
Steamer' nonetheless) all excited.
Ahh! Nien! Nien! Der Donderooo in Bavaria it means "machtloser Affe
mit Wรผrstchen"
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:29PM|#
The phone number is there, published openly on this Forum, because in the past, advesaries have published nonsense posts under my name. If anyone wishes to confirm that it is indeed my posting, all they need to do is call.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:30PM|#
"As we all know, Christmas is the day when Jesus rises from
the dead to feast on the flesh of the living".
LMAO for real! That is way funny.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:30PM|#
Lunchstealer, I opposed Saddam Hussein, the genocidal maniac.
You and your kind supported him.
So, the Dondero definition of "libertarian" is to oppose genocide
and support human rights.
ELVIS|4.22.08 @ 10:31PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:29pm | #
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXiMfukBZM4
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:31PM|#
Naga Shadow, is that a real name or a bogus on-line name you're
posting under?
If bogus, why are you being such a chicken shit? Why not use your
real name?
jes\' guessin\'|4.22.08 @ 10:31PM|#
Are you so sad...(Dondero)
Naga Sadow, I'd call you a quick study but that would be an
insult...in this case.
|4.22.08 @ 10:32PM|#
"Bad night for Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and all the
Anti-War so-called libertarians. They're the biggest loser
here."
Don't sell yourself short, Dondero. You can more than hold your own
with anyone on that list.
|4.22.08 @ 10:32PM|#
"I may stumble, I may get knocked down, but with your help, I
will always get right back up."
It's true. She's a terminator. My God, it's moving! Hit it again.
Again. Again!
Neil|4.22.08 @ 10:33PM|#
Looks like the blue collar base of the Democrat Party just isnt
comfortable voting for Obama.
Its gonna be Hillary double digits, underpreformed in the suburbs.
Guess theyre "bitter" too.
|4.22.08 @ 10:34PM|#
"joe | April 22, 2008, 10:26pm | #
Interesting discussion on MSNBC about counties that have flipped
from Republican to Democrat in the runup to this race."
Yeah Limbaugh will try to get some credit for this, but anyone that
has goes through PA can see that the demographics are changing
rapidly. Harrisburg itself changes from month to month. This is the
first Presidential Primary for many new Hispanics. PA is getting
bluer and bluer every day. Maybe it is just because I have followed
PA closely throughout the years, but it seems to be getting bluer
faster than any other state. Most of the educated productive people
leave because there are no jobs and people like Rendell are just
going to make it worse.
SADDAM\'S JEALOUS BOYTOY|4.22.08 @ 10:34PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 10:30pm | #
Lunchstealer, I opposed Saddam Hussein
This is true. He was facing away. And the Saddam was invading his
backside. I hate you!!
|4.22.08 @ 10:35PM|#
If she was a Weeble should wouldn't even have to worry about getting knocked down.
Election Analyst|4.22.08 @ 10:36PM|#
Does anyone think this is actually going to make any
difference?
(sitting at a bar, watching basketball)
Neil|4.22.08 @ 10:37PM|#
How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will never win white working class votes?
Math Teacher|4.22.08 @ 10:38PM|#
Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:33pm | #
Its gonna be Hillary double digits
Uh, Neel?
You divide the difference by 2. it has to add to 100%. 55/45 is a 5
point difference. Not 10.
I have some books you could read.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:39PM|#
WOW! Politico.com is now reporting, with 71% in, that it's a 10
point margin. Hillary has inched up to near 55% to Obama's 45%. It
had been hovering at 54% to 46%. Looks like Philly is all in. So,
that means the trend will be all up for Hillary from here on out as
Western PA and the rural areas report in.
Again: Very, very bad night for "Ned Lamontian/Daily Kos" latte'
sipping elitist Anti-War Democrats.
HUGE VICTORY FOR THE REAGAN DEMOCRATS.
Now Libertarians need to figure out how to reach this
constituency.
Black Man|4.22.08 @ 10:39PM|#
Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:37pm | #
How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will never
win white working class votes?
Shit is ahhiight.
DONDEROOOS MOM|4.22.08 @ 10:41PM|#
Honey? It's time for the meds. And then you can go back to the computer friends before bed.
John|4.22.08 @ 10:41PM|#
This is the first time, Paul's received double-digits (He nearly did it in Iowa) Of course, the low turnout and fewer candidates on the ballot were to his advantage.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 10:41PM|#
Isn't it funny, that we never hear Libetarians and especially
Reason-oids on the subject of blue collar voters and Reagan
Democrats?
Tonight was the TRIUMPH for the Reagan Dem and Blue Collar
America.
Mainstream libertarianism is the best way to reach them. Not
radical extremist America-hating, unPatriotic leftist
libertarianism.
|4.22.08 @ 10:41PM|#
WOW! Politico.com is now reporting, with 71% in, that it's a
10 point margin. Hillary has inched up to near 55% to Obama's 45%.
It had been hovering at 54% to 46%. Looks like Philly is all in.
So, that means the trend will be all up for Hillary from here on
out as Western PA and the rural areas report in.
The TV networks are up to 76% and its back down to 8 pts.
|4.22.08 @ 10:42PM|#
"How does it feel liberals to have a probable nominee who will
never win white working class votes?"
What you don't think "Dukakis with rhythm" has a chance?
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 10:45PM|#
E.D.,
Guy Montag is a real name. Some people do use real names
online.
However, I never use my real name online :)
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:46PM|#
Dondero,
Its a posting name of course. Chickenshit for exercising my
constitutionally protected right to privacy (as interpreted by the
Supreme Court anyway, it doesn't actually appear in there). Have
you not been reading your own posts? Hilarious and more than a
little bizarre, can't be having possibly deranged persons showing
up at one of my residences.
I'll back off, you may continue with your rants
YAWNING|4.22.08 @ 10:46PM|#
Neil | April 22, 2008, 10:42pm | #
Hell yeah LOL the Real America is the victor tonight!
LOL
Hilary LOVES real americans.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 10:52PM|#
Guy,
What was the fire chief's name? I haven't read Bradbury in about 3
years.
|4.22.08 @ 10:54PM|#
"Four more years of a war with no exit strategy"
Definitely true of McCain, but Obama wouldn't promise a pullout by
the end of his first term.
|4.22.08 @ 10:58PM|#
This is the first time, Paul's received double-digits (He
nearly did it in Iowa)
Wrong.
1/19 NV - 13.73%
2/01 ME - 18.28%
2/05 AK - 16.80%
2/05 MN - 16.09%
2/05 ND - 21.27%
2/09 KS - 11.40%
2/09 WA - 21.64%
|4.22.08 @ 10:59PM|#
This election is making me feel like poop. It is a poopy election with poopy candidates. It is a surreal poopiness that dominates these campaigns. Poop, I tell you . . . poop!
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 11:00PM|#
Seconds ago... Politico.com
Hillary now at 55.06%
Obama at 44.96%
SHE JUST WENT OVER A 10% MARGIN WHICH IS THE DEFINITION OF A
BLOW-OUT THAT ALL THE PUNDITS HAD ESTABLISHED FOR HER.
And looking at the map, it's just the rural counties that are left
to report in.
She'll probably end up with an 11 or 12% margin.
Very, very bad night for Anti-War Liberals, and even Anti-War
Libertarians.
THE STRENGTH ON FOREIGN POLICY REAGAN DEMOCRATS WIN BIG!!
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 11:01PM|#
Naga,
NEIN!
Montag was just a Fireman and an expert at finding hidden books. He
taught himself how to read and no longer liked the society that had
him trapped. So he escaped.
The Fire Chief was killed by Montag.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 11:03PM|#
What a chicken shit you are Naga Shadow for posting under a
bogus name. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's your Constitutional right and
all. But who the fuck cares. Just means you're a yellow-bellied
coward for using a fake name.
I do NOT ALLOW Anonymous postings at my Libertarian Republican
blog, nor fake names.
Too bad let's you all scumbags get away with it. If I was Matt
Welch I'd delete all posts by people who use fake names.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 11:04PM|#
Amazing, no discussion here on the biggest issue of the night:
The Return of the Reagan Democrats.
Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American
politics?
John|4.22.08 @ 11:05PM|#
Having a bunch of people in A&F garb isn't exactly the way to counter being called an elitist.
|4.22.08 @ 11:06PM|#
Dondero,
What is your purpose here? Are you leaning towards Clinton against
McCain at this point?
(I know you're supporting LP, but you know they have no chance of
getting an electoral vote in Nov).
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:06PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:03pm | #
How libertarian of you.
Eric, it was me, and if it wasnt obvious - it should have been, but
i understand, you're not a clever lad - in the future, ALWAYS
assume its me. It makes it more fun
|4.22.08 @ 11:07PM|#
Is there an Obama "political cliche" drinking game for his speeches yet or do all the people who test the concept die?
Ali|4.22.08 @ 11:07PM|#
Eric-
I do not have any clue about mainstream american politics. And you
know what? I don't care!
|4.22.08 @ 11:08PM|#
"The Return of the Reagan Democrats"
That movie sucked. Luckily it doesn't seem to be playing at the
theater tonight, since the 8-10 point margin, if it holds up, is
very close to what she had been expected to win by and is far less
than she'd been polling in PA for pretty much the entire past
year.
Had Dondero been soiling himself over Hillary before tonight, or is
this a new phenomenon?
There's really no need to know anything about a candidate's
position if Dondero's around. Just find out which candidate(s) he
supports, and run screaming the other way. You're pretty much
assured of getting 1) the more libertarian candidate, and 2) the
candidate with the better chance of winning.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:09PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:04pm | #
Amazing, no discussion here on the biggest issue of the night: The
Return of the Reagan Democrats.
Maybe no one except you really cares.
That would be too much for your little fantasy world though.
I can't wait until later in the year when we can watch Hilary go
down crying like a bitch and giggle because everyone you've ever
supported (for whatever goddam reason) is doomed, almost by your
very endorsement
kiss of death it is
Ali|4.22.08 @ 11:09PM|#
Paul is crossing the 100,000 votes in PA. Who would've thunk
it?
Hey, Eric, how many votes will your mainstream Root get in
November?
|4.22.08 @ 11:10PM|#
"Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American
politics?"
Voting for Clinton makes you a Reagan Democrat?
|4.22.08 @ 11:10PM|#
I do NOT ALLOW Anonymous postings at my Libertarian
Republican blog, nor fake names.
That's sort of like a 400-pound woman who reeks like rotting
garbage saying she doesn't let guys feel her up on the first date,
isn't it?
Ramsey|4.22.08 @ 11:12PM|#
Holy shit, I swear you are getting crazier by the day Dondero.
Look, saying that the Reagan Democrats won big is the exact same as
saying that the Christian Muslims won big. The two are like
unconnected sets in a Venn diagram (see also military
intelligence).
I am assuming that you are being rhetorical when you ask "Do you
all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream American politics?"
but I think you would fit in better running with the survivalists
in Montana than anywhere else. Here is a pro-tip, and this one is
free, real Americans don't work themselves into a froth rage
because somebody posts under a pseudonym.
Chill out dude, have a beer or something.
|4.22.08 @ 11:12PM|#
The Reagan Democrats are dying or dead. That was 24 years ago. Changing demographics are not best described by quarter century old labels.
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 11:12PM|#
Yellow bellied coward? LOL, who the hell even talks like that anymore? Wow, you basically banned me from a site I didn't wanna visit in the first place, that'll teach me.
|4.22.08 @ 11:14PM|#
"Paul is crossing the 100,000 votes in PA. Who would've thunk
it?"
Exit polls have him taking the "Neoconfederate" vote 90-10%.
Brandybuck|4.22.08 @ 11:15PM|#
Geez, remember all those Ron Paulists who "flirted with Obama" immediately after Paul pulled out of the race a few weeks ago?
No, I don't remember them. That's probably because they don't
exist.
HUGE VICTORY FOR THE REAGAN DEMOCRATS.
OMG! Dondero thinks that a win for Clinton is a win for Reagan
Democrats!
Now Libertarians need to figure out how to reach this constituency.
Obviously Libertarians need to draft Clinton as their candidate!
Maybe Gravel can be her running mate. Wow, what a win for
Libertarians!
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:15PM|#
LevStrauss | April 22, 2008, 11:10pm | #
Voting for Clinton makes you a Reagan Democrat?
ShhhhhhhH! Dont ruin it!! It's too much fun. let him rant some more
about how she's like, a post-op Rudy or something. It will be
recorded on the intertubes forev-ah
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:16PM|#
Naga Sadow | April 22, 2008, 11:12pm | #
Yellow bellied coward? LOL, who the hell even talks like that
anymore?
Hint = it ends in a long "oooooooooooooooo" sound.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 11:17PM|#
Okay, I am going out on a limb here and predict Mrs. Clinton by 9 points, +/- 2
Ronald Reagan\'s Ghost|4.22.08 @ 11:18PM|#
Voting for Hillary makes you a Reagan Democrat? I am confused and remember I died thus curing me of Alzheimers. Mr. Donderoo, you are a damned Liberal!
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 11:19PM|#
More Politico.com. Now 85% reporting:
Clinton keeps going up, now at 55.20%. Only Counties left, far
nothern rim of the State, plus oddly Chester County in the
South.
Looks like she'll end up with between 10 to 12 point winning
margin.
The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate, Strong on
Defense, fiercely Patriotic.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:20PM|#
what sucks is that i'm only going to win pennies on the dollar
betting hilary was going to win tonight.
joe convinced me back in....whenever. At least now I might get
better odds on the nom.
Eric Dondero|4.22.08 @ 11:20PM|#
Pat Caddell explained earlier tonight that Hillary is not a
"Reagan Democrat" but that the RDs are voting for her, cause she's
closest to their views. Yet, in the end, 90% of them will end up
voting for McCain.
McCain IS the Reagan Democrat.
Guy Montag|4.22.08 @ 11:20PM|#
Naga,
I was just giving the "Reagan Democrat" common press usage from
back-in-the-day. As others have pointed out, it is a pretty
meaningless term now.
|4.22.08 @ 11:20PM|#
You ALMOST got Ron Paul's margin - by early results he has about
15%.
You just should have left out the last part...
|4.22.08 @ 11:22PM|#
Neil, do you think the Mormons in Utah are going to refuse to vote for John McCain?
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:23PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:19pm | #
Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.
V chip, censor video games, tax the shit out of you to pay for
univeral healthcare for geriatric voters, a woman who'll bullshit
over anything, and say anything if it gets her elected... and
protested the vietnam war.
Way to go dude.
While the rest of us military-types who thinks she's a cunt? What
do you call us?
Oh, right. "Cowards".
You're a fucking A+ parody of yourself. Semper fi man, semper
fi.
|4.22.08 @ 11:23PM|#
The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate,
Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.
And they're going to vote for McCain. Why are you so excited?
Ali|4.22.08 @ 11:24PM|#
Eric,
You know what. Now that I think about it, I agree with you. Hillary
is the true libertarian candidate.
GILMORE|4.22.08 @ 11:24PM|#
Eric Dondero | April 22, 2008, 11:20pm | #
McCain IS the Reagan Democrat
...
Who was your first candidate, i forget. They keep changing.
I wish Inigo Montoya was here.
Brandybuck|4.22.08 @ 11:25PM|#
The Return of the Reagan Democrats: Socially Moderate, Strong on Defense, fiercely Patriotic.
Every candidate Donderoooooooo has supported has not only failed,
but failed spectacularly. Today we see him all but endorsing
Clinton by name. If we can only get him to endorse McCain, then
we'll see Obama versus Paul in November!
Ronald Reagan\'s Ghost|4.22.08 @ 11:25PM|#
Ever read Macbeth, Mr. Donderoo? McCain stars as Laertes.
|4.22.08 @ 11:27PM|#
The result is in that mushy middle area - not an Obama collapse,
not knocking Hillary out of the race, just status quo ante.
She still can't catch up, but she can stay in the race if she wants
to.
Still feeling smug, Neil. Hillary is the hard part; McCain is going
to be easy after her.
All this going on, and he still can't get a lead? Not in the cards
this year.
|4.22.08 @ 11:30PM|#
Bill Kristol is another Reagan Dem . . . basically, ex-socialists that have a hard-on for war that haven't quite lost their love for big spending and government planning. That's why those types love FDR . . .
Naga Sadow|4.22.08 @ 11:53PM|#
Damn! The Obama-Clinton wars will continue unabated . . . not such a bad situation from the laugh perspective.
|4.22.08 @ 11:55PM|#
@Eric Dondero
Too bad let's you all scumbags get away with it. If I was Matt
Welch I'd delete all posts by people who use fake names.
Oh, lighten up! A fake name could only improve your reputation. I
suggest "He Who Must Be Kicked In The Nuts"...
lunchstealer|4.22.08 @ 11:55PM|#
So, the Dondero definition of "libertarian" is to oppose
genocide
...you respond by not only killing him, but his friends too,
and his family members, and then you go to his village and burn the
WHOLE MOTHER FUCKING THING DOWN TO THE GROUND. You then, threaten
all his countrymen, and the countrymen in surrounding
countries...
This fits the definition of genocide. Just sayin'. Admittedly
you're just kind of using genocide as a revenge fantasy, which is
definitely better than actually practicing it on a large scale as
Saddam did. But objectively pro-genocide.
|4.23.08 @ 12:01AM|#
David Weigel: 100% right with Clinton-Obama prediction, 100%
wrong with prediction on Ron Paul: more than 3 times his
prediction. And all this with NO news coverage for Paul since weeks
(with a few exceptions)
in the msm over the past few weeks/months and the media
misinterpreting his take over Paul dropping out.
Paul|4.23.08 @ 12:10AM|#
Haven't had a chance to read all 183 (and counting) comments,
but for someone who's not even registering on the media richter
scale, Ron Paul got 16% of the vote.
That's at least notable.
President - GOP Primary
Pennsylvania - 8863 of 9268 Precincts Reporting - 96%
Name Party Votes Vote %
McCain , John GOP 546,617 73%
Paul , Ron GOP 120,481 16%
Huckabee , Mike GOP 86,635 11%
|4.23.08 @ 12:23AM|#
After Hillary putting on an Osama bin Laden ad, why doesn't
Obama put up an add about Monica Lewisnky?
It'd be on the same level, except much funnier.
|4.23.08 @ 1:02AM|#
Hah, Ron Paul is still gaining name recognition.
I wonder if he can use some of that to help Mr Barr out.
Paul Numbers|4.23.08 @ 2:05AM|#
So far,
994,789 voters have punched for Paul. 9 states to go. Maybe he'll
break 1 million and this is 1 million Republicans opposed to the
Iraq War.
Nice figure. Wish it were more.
Paul Numbers|4.23.08 @ 2:16AM|#
Forgot to say congrats to PA voters. Most votes by any state yet for Paul, native son. No more war! Where's that fag, Neil Young BTW. Who did he endorse?
Keep On Rockin\' in the Free W|4.23.08 @ 2:24AM|#
Mr. No-More-War endorses Barack Obama. Please see:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2006-05-08-young-obama_x.htm
Look at Mother Nature on the run in the 2000s.
modd|4.23.08 @ 2:31AM|#
Maybe if Hillary played Wagner she'd scare the hell out of them damned minority voters.
Paul Numbers|4.23.08 @ 3:22AM|#
Thanks for taking your hat off. It would've been better if you'd
actually voted for Libertarian principles. Maybe you did, although
you've made that a secret. Fair enough. You have to lie in your
profession, although next time you call a colleague on a lie
remember what youv'e done. It doesn't have to be like that.
cheers,
hatless
|4.23.08 @ 5:59AM|#
There is no way at this time in history America is going to
elect a black man or a woman.
You're a bit out of date there, sport. If Obama can defeat
Hillary's cronies at the convention, he's a shoo-in. After that
"100 years in Iraq" remark, given McCain's inability to back down
no matter how bloody stupid he looks, the democrats could even
nominate Al Gore again and beat him.
-jcr
|4.23.08 @ 6:01AM|#
Do you all have any clue whatsoever about mainstream
American politics?
Really man, you've missed your calling. You should be a
professional gag writer.
-jcr
|4.23.08 @ 6:13AM|#
They won't vote for the first gay President.
Given a choice between a man who might be gay, and bull dyke like
Hillary, which way do you think the homophobes are going to
vote?
-jcr
Guy Montag|4.23.08 @ 6:32AM|#
After that "100 years in Iraq" remark
Wanna quote McCains actual remark, rather than that fiction Sen.
Obama made up about it?
And before you assume I am some McCain liker you go out and try to
find ANYTHING I ever said in support of that Leftist RINO.
|4.23.08 @ 9:58AM|#
Looking like a 10% margin this morning. Enough to, what's the phrase? Oh yeah, "Keep Hope Alive" and give the supers cover for staying uncommitted and milking their moment in the sun.
|4.23.08 @ 10:02AM|#
The margin, from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with over 99%
reporting, is 8.4%.
That's still enough to keep Hillary in the race.
Doug Mataconis|4.23.08 @ 10:04AM|#
The Paul numbers are meaningless. The race is over and many
Republicans either switched parties to vote in the Demo. primary or
stayed home altogether. Calling this result representative of
anything is a big mistake.
And considering that Paul was the only candidate on the GOP side
who actually campaigned in Pennsylvania he arguably should've done
better.
tarran|4.23.08 @ 10:28AM|#
Meh, Doug, I doubt most people in PA even new he was campaigning
there.
BTW, I'm heartened to see that Eric Dondero is now a Hillary
Clinton supporter. I predicted that he would come out in favor of
her after he loudly supported Mitt Romney who essentially shared
most of his political ideas with her.
Of course, thanks in part to guys like Eric, who are so gung-ho
about killing brown people that they are willing to bankrupt their
nation and wreck its economy, the Democratic nominee will
be the next president. And, the fact that it is looking
increasingly like it will be a closet Marxist fills me full of
dread.
|4.23.08 @ 11:40AM|#
It might seem off-topic, but since the clip from Rocky III was
included in the article, it's not might fault...
Was anybody else confused/concerned at 2:17 into the video? I never
knew Rocky wore a sports bra...
|4.23.08 @ 11:50AM|#
The margin, from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, with over
99% reporting, is 8.4%.
Figures that in the minute after I post, better numbers come
in.
That's still enough to keep Hillary in the race.
Just barely. The whole perception game was pegged to a double digit
win.
What's the delegate count, from the Dem's goofy district
system?
|4.23.08 @ 12:13PM|#
I don't know what's up with CNN. They're so married to their
story, they're stilling running with a 55-45 split.
The delegates for Pennsylvania are about a 12-15 net gain for
Hillary.
That puts Obama up about 130, down from 140-something.
|4.23.08 @ 12:38PM|#
Now, with 99.44% (yup, that's really the number), it's 9.2% Still doesn't round to "double digits."
lunchstealer|4.23.08 @ 12:58PM|#
Ugh. Seriously, a 9 point win where she's banking on getting the racist vote? I'd call her loathesome, but that would be insulting to loathesome things.
|4.23.08 @ 2:46PM|#
I used to think that the conservative backing of Hillary was
because they wanted the two of them to mess each other up before
the nomination. Now I think they really DO want Hillary to win,
because they just can't deal with the cosmopolitanism of Obama.
They want to stay with the 55-45 split, because that way they can
say it was "double digits". Even though it wasn't.
Interestingly, it does seem that Hillary capitalized on the over 60
vote and those with only a high school diploma. The older you are
and the stupider you are, the more likely you are to back
Hillary.
|4.23.08 @ 5:34PM|#
# 12:39: Hats off to the rEVOLution: Ron Paul
# will come out of his home state with around
# 127,000 votes, giving him around 974,000
# votes total for the caucuses and primaries
# that have wrapped thus far.
Three times your predicted finish, as others have also observed.
This race still has some surprises, no? I wonder what else is in
store?
# Doug Mataconis | April 23, 2008, 10:04am | #
# The Paul numbers are meaningless. The race
# is over ... And considering that Paul was
# the only candidate on the GOP side who
# actually campaigned in Pennsylvania he
# arguably should've done better.
Yet, Wiegel's analysis, above, suggests that, had he campaigned
"better," Paul "had a chance" of doing 15-20%. Well, he hit that
mark, anyway. So who is right: Wiegel, who thought Paul's "high
water mark" would have been maybe 20% with a good campaign, or
Metaconis, who thinks the campaign he did run should have done
better even than that?
Does ANYONE understand what is going on this race? I suspect not,
and that includes yours truly. It is entertaining, though. :-)
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