David Weigel | April 17, 2008
Last night Cap'n Ed Morrissey of the good ship Hot Air offered this prediction on the Democratic race.
If superdelegates had begun to reconsider their support of Obama after Crackerquiddick, they’re speed-dialing Hillary after watching Gibson dismember Obama on national TV tonight.
A few hours later comes the first post-debate superdelegate endorsement. And it goes to... Obama. The second superdelegate? Oh, yeah, also to Obama.
Phil Klein speculates on this disconnect, between conservatives (myself included) who think this was the most unimpressive debate performance by a national candidate since the first Bush-Kerry debate, and Democrats who think Obama stood heroically up to a mean-mouthed assault from the Fourth Estate.
It's kind of like in the wake of the YouTube debate last year in which pundits on the right praised Clinton for attacking Obama as being naïve for wanting to meet with foreign dictators. (Clinton was being the grown up, Obama wasn’t ready for primetime.) But to liberals, Obama's stand reinforced the fact that he was the candidate who represented a true break with the Bush foreign policy. Obama may have been pummeled last night, but there's a lot of liberal rage against ABC, and Clinton will be seen as a collaborator who spent the night doing John McCain's dirty work.
That's working for Obama with the Democratic electorate. What's working for him on the superdelegate level is that Clinton does not, and never did, look more electable than Barack Obama. A shudder of dread went up in many Democratic quarters after John Kerry lost, as they realized that Clinton, now the 2008 frontrunner, was going to struggle mightily to score 50 percent of the vote against any Republican. For months and months you could watch Clinton pander to various centrist or conservative interest groups as her flacks argued, desparately, that she wasn't as unelectable as you thought. The early waves of superdelegates went to her out of lust for spoils; the second wave, for Obama, are going because they're convinced he can win. Clinton's job has been to make Democrats believe he'll wind up this process as hated as she is, or as Kerry was, or as Dukakis was. But Democrats don't want to believe that. This or that debate performance aside, Obama is obviously the most talented pol they've had on their team in decades. They don't want to hear that he'll be mau-mau'd over the flag, or his pastor, et al.
This
whole ugly affair brings to mind the struggles of President Laura
Roslin in Battlestar Galactica. She begins her re-election
campaign with a healthy lead, padded by the belief that she has
clarivoyant powers and will lead her people to the promised land.
She stumbles early on by making an unpopular anti-abortion
stand. Her opponent, Gaius Baltar (advised by a former
terrorist--shades of Bill Ayers!) has no traction until the fleet
stumbles upon a new, barely habitable planet where humankind can
settle and declare a truce in their War on Cylons. Baltar starts
surging, and Roslin asks her political director Tory why that
is.
Tory: Madam President, in my opinion, people vote their hopes, not their fears. Baltar is offering them what they want to hear, and you're offering them a bitter reality.
Roslin: I'm offering them the truth.
Tory: They don't want to hear the truth. They're tired, exhausted. The idea of stopping, laying down their burdens, and starting a new life right now is what is resonating with the voters.
Roslin: How well is it resonating?
Tory: It could turn the entire election around.
Replace "starting a new life" with "getting over the 90s and defensive war-on-terror politics" and you've got your analogy. And then Roslin tried to steal the election with forged ballots.
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Episiarch | April 17, 2008, 11:22am | #
Stop stealing my ideas, Dave.
That's exactly what I thought when I saw this too.
Quite funny.
And of course the biggest joke of all was that Roslin
wasn't ready from day one. Far from it, a dead end
political appointee ready to retire and crawl away to die of
cancer, thrust by (what she called) a 'mathematical absurdity' into
the position. No prep, no experience, and no prospects.
And she likes to shove people out airlocks when she doesn't get her
way.
It's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep The phone is ringing. Adama has found another Cylon. Who do you want to shove him out of the airlock?
Weigel,
It sounds like you and Jonah Goldberg have a lot in common.
That is not meant to be a complement.
Episiarch, I didn't even see that until you linked it! Very funny. Great minds and all that.
I would never have thought to use Battlestar Galtica as a means
to explicate the vagaries or American political discourse.
Dave is a genius.
Cally goes out the airlock. Not because she's a Cylon, just because she's annoying.
Hillary is no Roslin.
BTW, I think that the occasion of this debate and the reaction to
this debate is a good opportunity to do a little Randist /
Thatcherite reductivism.
There seems to be a theme to the establishment commentary on the
debate this morning: a grudging concession that, yes, the questions
were puerile and focused on non-policy-related trivia, followed by
a blanket declaration that this is how "the system" works and it's
up to Obama to demonstrate that he can deal with it.
The problem with this argument is that there is no such thing as
"the system". There is no entity "the system" that can take actions
or possess attributes. There is only the accumulation of the
discrete actions taken by individual persons. In the case of the
national political media and commentariat, a relatively small
number of individuals. Each and every action undertaken by each one
of those individuals is subject to its own individual moral
analysis and scorn.
Talking about "the system" is a dodge to attempt to generalize [and
thereby avoid] the moral responsibility for the actions of these
individuals.
There was no "system" that took some action while we all passively
sat by, helpless and blameless. Charlie Gibson asked questions, and
he is morally responsible for his choice of questions. Various
press luminaries commented on those questions and the content of
the debate, and they are morally responsible for their
contribution. If Marc Ambinder wants to throw up his hands and say,
"I can't help it, it's just the system, man!" he is a liar.
When did Obama morph into a warmonger?
"I will do whatever is required to prevent the Iranians from
obtaining nuclear weapons," Obama said.
Geez, last I heard he was just going to have a nice quiet chat with
them.
It's weird when the leftiest Dem is to my right on an issue.
As I've said before, Iran is going to get nuclear weapons, and
excepting nonmilitary actions like sanctions, our best option is
probably just to accept it. They do not have Saddam's history of
invading his neighbors and the Iranian people are fairly
pro-American.
These conservatives, like Captain Ed, are the same people who
told us that Hillary was inevitable because she owned the party;
Reverend Wright was going to knock Obama out of the race;
Bittergate was going to cause his poll numbers to go down; and the
effect of the "A More Perfect Union" speech would be to make people
angry that he sold our his gramma.
These people don't understand Democrats, or how the Democratic
Party works. Everything they write about this race is solipsism,
projected onto Democratic voters and delegates. They should stick
to subjects they understand better.
Oh, sure, Dave. Compliment me to distract me from the truth. How very Baltar of you.
"Do you believe in the flag, sir?"
I wanted to reach through the screen, then reach through the
you-tubes, find that lady's neck and throttle her.
You, ma'am, are what is wrong with America.
Frakking lame analogy.
Really.
Frakking.
Lame.
Roslin is more McCain than Clinton...in bed with the Military, all
about security and destroying the enemy in our midst.
Come on.
Joe,
I tend to think that the people who do that are simply hoping that
the media will take up their claim and magnify it.
If the media claims loudly enough that you're losing and are a
loser, it will become true, 9 times out of 10.
joe,
To be fair, it's only HRC's insanely high levels of ineptitude that
have removed the anointed oil from her skin. It was ridiculous that
she was given so much early support, given her inexperience and
untested ability to campaign nationally (helping Bill was not the
same thing; not at all). Fortunately for her, Obama isn't a
particularly strong candidate, either, so she can hang around until
the bitter end.
McCain is Lee Adama. Angry.
McCain is Lee Adama. Angry.
And the guy he looks just like, Tigh, isn't angrier? Tigh is so
similar to McCain it's scary.
Tigh is the guy McCain will have as a running mate that will take over when he is in the hospital on a respirator?
Tigh is so similar to McCain it's scary.
What's gonna be scary (and retarded) will be the undoubtedly
endless Tigh/McCain mashup videos that will appear all over the
you-tubes come this autumn.
What the hell is wrong with me? McCain is Tigh. I guess I'd do better if BSG actually had seasons and schedules and stuff.
after reading episiarch's original and lmnop's (spoiler to last week's episode in link), I had the thought that Baltar is actually *Bill* Clinton and Hillary is #6 - completely disregarding pulchritude, of course.
What's gonna be scary (and retarded) will be the undoubtedly
endless Tigh/McCain mashup videos that will appear all over the
you-tubes come this autumn.
Not a video per
se, but it's been out for almost a year now.
I've a weird feeling McCain is going to turn out to be Commodore Matthew Decker.
joe --
If you do, start with the mini-series instead of season one. The
mini-series was the real "pilot" of the show, but not knowing that,
you might get season one and be confused by all the shit going
on.
Wouldn't libertarians kill to have a candidate with a fraction of Hillary's guts or Obama's charm? I mean, look a the losers you've had to pin your hopes on.
Kolohe --
Upon seeing that, I've come to the conclusion that McCain is a
cylon-squirrel hybrid. Those cheeks are what ruins it.
I would go with Petraeus for Lee Adama.
This or that debate performance aside, Obama is obviously the
most talented pol they've had on their team in decades.
I don't think so. People keep saying that, but all he's really done
is run to the left of Hillary, who made the same mistake Guiliani
did of assuming her lead would hold up even if she ran as a
centrist. Everyone thought Dukakis was a political genius too, when
he had that 17-point lead.
What's great is that Michael Hogan will be at the top of the line to play President McCain, assuming that McCain wins. He'll probably have an, er, eventful presidency, too. Excellent fodder for a motion picture or, at least, a miniseries.
ABC should be banned from ever hosting a debate again.
The more I think about the dumb ass questions asked in that debate,
the more it pisses me off.
If you do, start with the mini-series instead of season
one.
Actually, they're packaged together now.
http://www.amazon.com/Battlestar-Galactica-Edward-James-Olmos/dp/B000AJJNFE/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1208448240&sr=8-4&tag=reasonmagazineA
"Picking up where the miniseries ended (it's included here, sparing
the need for separate purchase),"
What's great is that Michael Hogan will be at the top of the
line to play President McCain.
I cast Hogan in that role for "Petraeus: Man of
Iron."
ABC: Senator Obama, if you were a tree, what
kind of tree would you be?
Obama: [several moments of silence]
Excuse me?
ABC: Answer the question, sir! America has a right
to know!
My guess is that not a lot of the posters to this thread are getting laid a lot.
I thought people voted for both their fears and their hopes. This is why John McCain is still in the race
I would never have thought to use Battlestar Galtica as a
means to explicate the vagaries or American political
discourse.
BSG is the best show on TV because for most of the first three
seasons, it tackled the interaction of politics, society, morality,
military, religion & power, in a way pretty much unseen before
on tv. Futhermore, it's the best treatment of these issues in any
format since Dune.
*spoiler just below*
The only weaknesses were when the series got seriously bogged down
when they got too heavy-handed with the Iraq war references, and
made one too many throwaway episodes after the new caprican exodus,
but has more or less recovered since then.
Wouldn't libertarians kill to have a candidate with a
fraction of Hillary's guts or Obama's charm? I mean, look a the
losers you've had to pin your hopes on.
I'll buy Obama's charm. What has Hillary ever done that displays
guts? Since guts is being used as a synonym for bravery, what is
the bravest thing Hillary has ever done? Unprotected sex with Bill
doesn't count.
My guess is that not a lot of the posters to this thread are
getting laid a lot.
Troll or not, Henry, but I've found that chicks are hot for BSG in
a way they aren't for much else sci-fi fare.
Guts and charm in a politician?
I think libertarians should shudder at the horrors such a
combination would likely produce.
Joe this stuff could still very well hurt him a lot in the general election, so don't count out the effectiveness of swift boat slime attacks just yet.
If you do, start with the mini-series instead of season
one.
Actually, they're packaged together now.
http://www.amazon.com/Battlestar-Galactica-Edward-James-Olmos/dp/B000AJJNFE/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1208448240&sr=8-4&tag=reasonmagazineA
"Picking up where the miniseries ended (it's included here, sparing
the need for separate purchase),"
There is also a film, called Battlestar Galactia: Razor, which is
also very good. Its a side story of Pegasus. I would watch it after
season 3.
joe, I'd definetely give BSG a try, if you like sci-fi or can
atleast tolerate it you wont be disappointed.
J sub D
I have long suspected that those who hate and fear Hillary the most
are right-wing men with very small penises.
swift boat slime attacks
True, pointing out what Obama has actually said may sink him in the
general just as it did Kerry.
It's interesting that Dems thought Kerry would be the most
electable candidate even though the 1971 statements that destroyed
his campaign were well known to them. The generally-friendly MSM
coverage of Dems seems to have an insulating effect that often
causes them to miscalculate the general election impact of what
they have said.
Guts and charm in a politician?
I think libertarians should shudder at the horrors such a
combination would likely produce.
Right. Why go for guts and charm when you can get stupidity and
kookiness? Anyway, libertarian candidates aren't really trying to
get elected; they're doing educational work. How many voters know
about the gold standard?
Then again slimeball attacks might work when things are
relatively quiet and tranquil (1988, 2000, 2004,) but don't seem to
work well when things are really in the toilet (1976, 1980, 1992,
now).
Trying to paint Bill Clinton as a pot-smoking, draft dodging
Communist agent in 1992 didn't pan out.
What's gonna be scary (and retarded) will be the undoubtedly endless Tigh/McCain mashup videos that will appear all over the you-tubes come this autumn.
Too late:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaCkFm0XlVQ
It's the smell of reality intruding on your fantasies, Taktix®. Kind of acrid, isn't it?
Nah. Hillary's more of an Admiral Kane. Domineering, dishonest,
out of her mind with power lust and willing to throw her ethics and
morals in the toilet to accomplish her goals at a moment's
notice.
Obama is more of a Boomer than anything else: sleeper agent with no
idea of who he really is until it's too late.
Yep, Tigh = McCain. Spot on.
There is no political equal to Adama. He's DA MAN. He's too human
to be part of the political class.
Why go for guts and charm when you can get stupidity and
kookiness?
What makes you think they won't go together?
Hugo Chavez and Robert Mugabe come to mind.
I thought you were talking about the president in "Prison
Break", which I thought was also relevant. She seems a lot like
Hillary, specially the season 1 prison break.
So lots of Battlestar Gallactica fans here?
I'll have to get season 2
Its still amazing how wrong the MSM has been on just about all
fronts of this primary election.
I.e.
Rudy vs. Hillary!
Fred Thompson is the next Ronald Reagan!
John McCain is dead in the water!
White people in Iowa won't vote for a black guy!
Hillary is dead in the water...er wait, Obama is finished!
Wright will really hurt Obama!
Bittergate will really hurt Obama!
And on and on.
The miniseries I'm watching right now is John Adams, not BSG,
FWIW.
Edward -
I gave you an opportunity to actually discuss a point you attempted
to make, rather than reflexively belittling your Homo
erectus intellect.
I shall not over estimate your intelligence or wit again. You are a
boring, lame, stupid twit.
slimeball attacks...2004
The real slimeball attacks in 2004 did fail: the forged Bush Guard
memos that blew up in Dan Rather's face.
Of course, unscrupulous Dems could always forge some memos saying
McCain shirked his service too. Maybe this time around they'll be
smart enough not to use Microsoft Word.
You know, Edward, you are so right. I don't know how I didn't
realize it before! I was blinded, I suppose.
Thanks man, it's really nice of you to help me through this
epiphanical trial of my will. Your the best.
Want to be BBF? Lol!
Why go for guts and charm when you can get stupidity and
kookiness?
What makes you think they won't go together?
Hugo Chavez and Robert Mugabe come to mind.
Yeah, but they've been successful. I'm thinking of the libertarian
stupidity and kookiness of an Aaron Russo or a Ron Paul--the kind
of stupidity and kookiness that never gets beyond the
making-people-cringe stage.
TallDave, that was on the level of George Allen accusing Jim Webb of writing kiddy porn(!) and hating women.
No, no, no.
Roslin is more Bush than Clinton. Convinced of her own divine
purpose, etc.
Also, please do not compare a classic beauty like Mary McDonell to
Hillary fracking Clinton...
McCain needs an eye patch.
Seconded. Somebody go tell his NVA prison guards they fucked
up.
Yeah, but they've been successful.
Yeah, that's why it's so scary.
I'm thinking of the libertarian stupidity and kookiness of an
Aaron Russo or a Ron Paul--the kind of stupidity and kookiness that
never gets beyond the making-people-cringe stage.
Yeah, it's a shame we can't get a little more credibility in our
libertarians.
"Yeah, it's a shame we can't get a little more credibility in
our libertarians."
Maybe it's the product. Just sayin'. I mean, you guys should be the
ones into marketing.
Epi,
I wish Tigh's wife was still around so they could have him call her
a "trollop" on the
show and make the likeness complete.
Cesar,
Sorry, I didn't know Greenspan had been a libertarian candidate.
When did he run?
So Greenspan was a card-carrtyng member? But when was he the Libertarian candidate?
If you were past a fourth grade reading level I'd recommend his book he goes on at length in there about his philosophy.
Elemenope,
Troll or not, Henry, but I've found that chicks are hot for BSG
in a way they aren't for much else sci-fi fare.
Really? My girlfriend is a sci-fi fanatic (Stargate, Dr. Who,
Farscape, Firefly, Star Trek, Dune, etc) who even wants me to go
with her to a sci-fi convention at some point, but she just falls
asleep on me when we watch BSG. Her parents are also into sci-fi,
but her mother isn't all that interested in BSG.
In fact, the only people that I can think of who like BSG are male
(me, my girlfriend's father, and my sister's ex).
I wish Tigh's wife was still around so they could have him
call her a "trollop" on the show and make the likeness
complete.
Or McCain could kill his wife. Just saying, to make the likeness
complete.
As for behind the scenes, I don't know how McCain treats his
wife, but I know how my ex treated me. Our relationship lasted
another 7 months, and the emotional/mental abuse wore me down
slowly. Eventually he started raping me, but at the time I was so
mentally fucked that I didn't understand what was
happening.
Oh, you are a terrible, terrible person SugarFree, to link to this
thread.
TallDave says:
True, pointing out what Obama has actually said may sink him in
the general just as it did Kerry.
It's interesting that Dems thought Kerry would be the most
electable candidate even though the 1971 statements that destroyed
his campaign were well known to them. The generally-friendly MSM
coverage of Dems seems to have an insulating effect that often
causes them to miscalculate the general election impact of what
they have said.
Kerry didn't lose because of what he said in 1971.
He lost because he was running against an incumbent President
during an economic expansion and a war that was still not perceived
as a failure.
Greenspan called himself a "libertarian Republican," Cesar, and he would no more have associated himself with the pathetic little Libertaian party of Aaron Russo and Ron Paul than he he would have eaten cow turds.
Edward I'm a libertarian and don't associate myself with the LP,
either, nor do the vast majority of posters on this site.
Whats your point?
you are a terrible, terrible person
Stop, stop... all this praise will go to my head.
Edward you've been on this site how long and you never learned the difference between a Libetarian and a libertarian?
My expert comment on the debate:
I disagree with Weigel. I think Obama did well.
I think it was good for him. While I may not
be like most voters in that I've already made up
my mind based on policy positions. I am like
most voters in that I'm not paying attention to
them.
I watched about 15 minutes of the debate while
flipping channels to better programming.
I haven't paid much attention to Obama or Hilary scandals.
Therefore I base my opinions
on feelings and impressions.
Obama looked and sounded confident and intelligent
and strong and safe whenever I saw him.
Hillary looked scared. She had trouble glancing
over to her side where Obama was towering over her. Her eyes looked
like she was afraid of him.
I'm a libertarian Republican, and I've voted LP many times. I also have taken action to adjust M0 an M1 upon occasion, but that's another story.
Edward you've been on this site how long and you never learned
the difference between a Libetarian and a libertarian?
Apparently you haven't learned the difference, Cesar. I was talking
about stupid, kooky Libetaian candidates, and you bring up
Greenspan. Idiot.
I'm not the idiot who forgot to capitalize the "L" so I knew
which kind of libertarian you were talking about.
Now you remember to! See even trolls like you with asperger's
syndrome can learn.
I was talking about stupid, kooky Libertarian candidates
And what point were you trying to make exactly?
Russo is a kook. Ok, so what? What the hell is your point?
Seriously, Neil has made more substantive points.
Seriously, Neil has made more substantive points.
And Neil is unintentionally hilarious, providing for much
amusement. You're just a bitter douchebag, MK2...whoops, I mean
Edward.
Ok, Edward, Russo was a kook. Wow, I agree with you, so would 99% of the non-PaulBot posters here. So.....whats your point?
My orginal point was that libertarians (Or Libertarians) would probably love to have a candidate (one to promote the libertarian cause) with the guts of Hillary or the charm of Obama rather than the silly, stupid kooks you've been saddled with. Greenspan doesn't count.
And you think the same tired old Hillary bashing is
witty?
Pot/kettle. Compared to the drivel you post, I'm a one man
Algonquin Round Table. I asked for an example of Hillary's bravery.
You couldn't name one. Step up to the plate or admit you're full of
shit.
THE URKOBOLD PREFERS EDWARD IN THE ORIGINAL GERMAN. THUS,
Scheinbar haben Sie nicht gelernt, der Unterschied, Cesar. Ich war dumm reden, verrückt Libetaian Kandidaten, und bringen Sie sich Greenspan. Dumkopf.
HOW SOOTHING.
It's been an hour, Edward. What has Hillary ever done the exhibited bravery or "guts" as you call it?
Hillary is pretty gutsy to keep battling away against the odds at this point. How much guts does it take to adhere to an irrelevant political cult and blatheringly repeat the same old shit dogmas ad nauseam, J sub D?
Edward, does Alan Keyes also have guts?
Seriously, shes doing it so she an ask donors to keep giving her
money so her campaign debts can be paid off, not because she has
"guts".
AH. PRESIDENT BUSH IS GUTSY AS WELL, STICKING TO HIS IRAQ PLAN DESPITE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE THAT IT'S NOT WORKING. THE URKOBOLD MUST NOT UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF THE WORD, "GUTS." FORGIVE HIM, ENGLISH IS NOT HIS FIRST LANGUAGE.
Okay, Cesar. I concede the Keyes point. Forget the Hillary-has-guts part. She's obviously the Alan Keyes of the Democratic party. How about Obama's charm? Wouldn't you love to have a Libertarian candidate with Obama's charm?
Actually, Edward, I'd prefer a candidate that has a shitload of
money and knows how to spend it.
Ross Perot got 19% of the vote this way and got the two parties to
at least endorse parts of his agenda out of fear.
Edward, Nixon was a brilliant man and hes the closest thing we've ever had to a petty tyrant in this country.
Well, I've achieved what I wanted to achieve. I've got a bunch of knuckleheads to engage a troll. Cheerio, morons.
J sub D | April 17, 2008, 1:09pm |
I asked for an example of Hillary's bravery. You couldn't name one.
Step up to the plate or admit you're full of shit.
Edward | April 17, 2008, 1:16pm |
Okay, Cesar. I concede the Keyes point. Forget the Hillary-has-guts
part.
So you have chosen the latter option. Perhaps there is hope for you
yet.
Elemenope,
Thanks, I didn't even know there was a mini-series.
henry | April 17, 2008, 12:08pm | #
My guess is that not a lot of the posters to this thread are
getting laid a lot.
Hey, I'm married! What do you expect?
Joe this stuff could still very well hurt him a lot in the
general election, so don't count out the effectiveness of swift
boat slime attacks just yet.
Maybe, Cesar, but they've been "predicting" this would happen in
the primary, too. As per Fluffy, they seem to have been
"predicting" it as hard as they could, in the hopes of making it
happen.
The Swift Boat attacks didn't sink Kerry. His non-response response
played into his series of half-measures in opposition to Bush,
making him seem gunshy. Even then, he came closer to unseating an
incumbent wartime president than any other candidate in history.
This time - no Shrums. In fact, counterpunching seems to be what
Obama does best.
Then again slimeball attacks might work when things are
relatively quiet and tranquil (1988, 2000, 2004,) but don't seem to
work well when things are really in the toilet (1976, 1980, 1992,
now). Yeah, retread Boomer culture war is a luxury item that
people worry about when they can afford to.
And then Roslin tried to steal the election with forged ballots.
You mean like Al Gore's people did in Palm Beach and Broward
Counties in 2000.
Really? My girlfriend is a sci-fi fanatic...
See, that's your problem right there. I've found it to hold true
more with chicks who do not like sci-fi as a rule.
Well, and now Clinton is only ahead +1 in the latest Zogby poll
in Pennsylvania.
I wonder if the talking heads will bring that up, or just ignore
how stupid they were about "Bittergate"?
It has been hilarious watching the mainstream media try to
explain away how wrong they got the public's response to
bittergate.
Scarborough: uh...uh...maybe we'll see the polls change on
Friday?
Matthews: Hey, I know this guy who tells me this is all over talk
radio!
'kay fellas.
As I've said before, Iran is going to get nuclear weapons, and excepting nonmilitary actions like sanctions, our best option is probably just to accept it. They do not have Saddam's history of invading his neighbors and the Iranian people are fairly pro-American.
I have to agree.
Joe they've simply decided not to talk about it and are moving
on to Bill Ayers.
Its really, really sad that at my age I even know who Bill Ayers or
the Weathermen are.
It has been hilarious watching the mainstream media try to
explain away how wrong they got the public's response to
bittergate.
Like the ARG poll that showed a 20-point drop?
Obama's trend has been to come into places where Hillary is leading
and rapidly eliminate that lead with huge spends and lefty
rhetoric. Hasn't happened in PA.
Uh, Dave, she came in like +20 now in the latest poll shes
+1.
Average +6.6, thats way smaller than what she had. And no movement
about Bittergate.
I've gotta start getting BSG on netflix. It sounds pretty neat.
Holy Cow, I agreed with TallDave and joe on the same freakin'
day.
Go to your shelters people. Armageddon is nigh.
Edward, Nixon was a brilliant man and hes the closest thing
we've ever had to a petty tyrant in this country.
Not even close. FDR was much closer to a dictator. He did things
Nixon never dreamed of: running for a third term, internment camps,
mass arrests of war protestors, attempting to stack the Supreme
Court, wiretapping the press and political opponents, the largest
government expansion ever.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
You can see even without the ARG poll there's no movement.
Dave, if Nixon had been our President in the midst of a total
war he would have done all that and probably way more.
Its a three way tie between Wilson, FDR, and Nixon, but if you're
talking about outside the context of a World War Nixon wins.
You really want to argue polls with me again, son? Didn't work
out so well last time.
Like the ARG poll that showed a 20-point drop?
No, like an analysis that doesn't require you to cherrypick a poll
to get the result you want.
Hasn't happened in PA. Yes, it has. The pattern has played
out exactly the same in PA as in almost every other state. Hillary
had an 18-20 point lead coming out the last primary, and now with a
week to go, Obama has it down to the mid-single digits. The
question now is whether he closes the deal, or whether that margins
remains.
I'm picking the latter. She wins by 5-8.
I seem to see slight movement towards Obama AFTER "bittergate". At the very least, the media was wrong that it was going to sink him.
Wait a second, is there a 20 point drop or has there been no
movement?
Go back to Red State and check up on the talking points.
No, the talking points now are that all the undecideds will break to Hillary, apparently.
No, FDR tried to stack the court well before Pearl Harbor. It
had nothing to do with the war.
On Jan. 30, 1937, Roosevelt's 55th birthday, the president
disclosed to his closest aides a draft bill to reorganize the
federal judiciary. The measure -- mischievously linked to a
long-ago proposal by 75-year-old Justice James C. McReynolds --
called for all federal judges to retire by age 70. If they failed
to do so, the president could appoint another judge to serve in
tandem with each one older than 70.
The practical effect of the proposal: Roosevelt could have
appointed six more Supreme Court justices immediately, increasing
the size of the court to 15 members. A Congress dominated by
Democrats undoubtedly would have appointed judges friendly to
Roosevelt and his New Deal agenda.
Its a three way tie between Wilson, FDR, and Nixon
Not even close.
I seem to see slight movement towards Obama AFTER
"bittergate".
Probably just noise.
I think the race stablized over a week ago - which was a few days
before the San Francisco comments got reported. They can't even be
said to have stalled his momentum.
Heh, Obama bashing ABC in a speech now. Cripes, is even last night
going to help him?
Wait a second, is there a 20 point drop or has there been no
movement?
Obviously if there's been no movement with the 20-point drop taken
out, there's been negative movement with it. And as I said, the
normal trend has been Obama gains, so no movement means Bittergate
has probably hurt him.
Go back to Red State and check up on the talking
points.
Oh, gee, the wildly partisan joe is calling me a partisan shill.
Yawn.
Anyways, it's certainly fun to see Obama go from "Words matter" to "People are too obsessed with what I say."
So a poll of a number of polls shows no movement.
And yet one shows a 20 point drop.
Not even a 4 or 8 point drop. A 20 point drop over a few
days.
This is only difficult for someone shilling a set of talking
points.
Yes, if you're shilling a set of talking points you toss out the results you don't like and ignore the previous trends for Obama.
This is straight out of high school. Senator Clinton is the
nerd, happily joining up with the Mean Girls to beat up a rival,
not realizing that the minute Obama's beaten they'll turn on
her.
What I'm seeing is McCain, Clinton, and the traditional media all
ganging up on Obama. That says to me that he's the one they're
worried about. And NOT because he's secretly in touch with the
Cylon-Moslem fascists.
Anyways, it's certainly fun to see Obama go from "Words
matter" to "People are too obsessed with what I say."
If you've ever read A Canticle for Leibowitz, you'd know
just how compatible those two statements are.
Even when some words matter, not every word matters. For example,
the shopping list of a five centuries dead guy: doesn't matter.
Here's a talking point from... TalkLeft.
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/14/125129/490
new Rasmussen national poll finds 56% of Americans disagree
with Obama's remarks calling small town Pennsylvanians bitter and
clinging to G-d and their guns. Only 25% approve
Not everyone agrees, though:
According to Tracy Klujian, 35, a bitter florist from suburban
Philadelphia, "When I'm not too busy clinging to guns or religion,
I'm going to cling to Barack Obama."
Maybe this will actually help Obama!
I feel bad about messing up your nice thread here. It's sort of like making fun of Mormons. Accept my apology.
Yes, if you're shilling a set of talking points you toss out
the results you don't like You toss out the extreme outliers
when aggregating data, d00d. This is high school statistics
here.
...and ignore the previous trends for Obama.
Let's go to the tape:
joe | April 17, 2008, 2:03pm | #
Maybe this will actually help Obama! I wasn't going go to
the scene of your humiliation, but since you brought it up - yeah,
maybe his response to this bulllshit, likke his response to the
Wright statements, will end up helping him, causing the entire
kerfuffle to end up as a net gain for him in the primary. Probably
not, though, because he's not going to put together a major speech
over something like this.
Hey, where'd my cut n paste go?
When I'm slapping TallDave around, I don't need these tag
issues!
That's, "...and ignore the previous trends for
Obama.
Let's go to the tape:
joe | April 17, 2008, 2:03pm | #
I seem to see slight movement towards Obama AFTER
"bittergate".
Probably just noise.
I think the race stablized over a week ago - which was a few days
before the San Francisco comments got reported. They can't even be
said to have stalled his momentum.
If you would just change the order of things slightly - first
look at the data, then decide what's going on - you'd do so much
better.
Did you know, TallDave, that I didn't write anything about this
episode having no effect on the race on Saturday? Or on Sunday? Or
Monday? Or Tuesday?
No, I waited all the way until Wednesday, so we could have 5 whole
days of post-story polling to see if there was a trend, because I
certainly wasn't going to go mouthing about what some people I've
never met think, until I had some solid data to go on. And then, I
was going to make sure my conclusion conformed very closely to what
the data indicated.
That's how I roll.
I could start working in some block quotes to make things clearer. Yeah, that's a mess, inn't it?
Yes, but I was just kidding. It just seemed the right thing to
type for some reason.
At least you've learned to close the tags. I understand that some
people were considering violent solutions to your problem. Not me,
of course. Others.
Wise action, joe.
Blogger appears to be more restrictive about what HTML you can use
in the comments section, which pisses me off to no end over at
Urkobold. I want HTML freedom! CSS! Tables! Images! Javascript! And
yes, by God, BLINKING TEXT!
I'd like some of those buttons, where you don't have to type the
tags yourself.
I think that would be a win-win.
Wouldn't you love to have a Libertarian candidate with
Obama's charm?
I would.
They do not have Saddam's history of invading his
neighbors
Well, not counting their current activities in Iraq, that is.
Still, I think the mullahs have correctly calculated that no one
will do anything to stop them getting their nukes.
I think the question is, if they act this bad without a strategic
deterrent, what will they be like when they have one?
I think the race stablized over a week ago - which was a few
days before the San Francisco comments got reported. They can't
even be said to have stalled his momentum.
I'd probably have to agree, given that it looks like his momentum
had already stalled. The unknown is how this will affect the
motivation of the bitter hicks to vote against him, either now or
in November.
I'd like some of those buttons, where you don't have to type
the tags yourself.
No shit. A simple set of italics, bold, block-quote, and link
buttons would do wonders. If they really wanted to treat us right,
they'd give us a strike-through button.
RC
At this point the Iranians are not doing anything beyond filling a
power vacuum.
A power vacuum, I might add, that was created by our invasion and
the destruction of the traditional relationships.
In spite of appearances the Persians do not seem to have any wider
imperialistic aims.
I think the question is, if they act this bad without a
strategic deterrent, what will they be like when they have
one?
Let's keep in mind, the Iranians weren't pulling this shit before
we started this war, and certain people ahem ahem started shouting
"On to Tehran!"
Frakking lame analogy.
Word, Roslin is teh hawte...Hillary on the other hand...
Well, not counting their current activities in Iraq, that
is.
Whoa whoa whoa whoa!
Don't tell me you think that the US can be said to have
invaded Nicaragua?
[During the Reagan administration, I mean. Obviously we did in fact
invade them those other two times.]
No shit. A simple set of italics, bold, block-quote, and
link buttons would do wonders. If they really wanted to treat us
right, they'd give us a strike-through button.
Add my whiny melodious voice to the pleading for HTML
buttons. Nick, are you listening?
Buttons? We don't need no stinkin' buttons! I'm fine typing in
tags and code. What I want is simply the power to format my text in
the way the Founding Fathers intended.
BLINK
BLINK
BLINK
Buttons? We don't need no stinkin' buttons! I'm fine typing
in tags and code. What I want is simply the power to format my text
in the way the Founding Fathers intended.
You drive with a manual transmision, don't you?
I do. And when I ran a web site for a nonprofit a while back, I used Notepad to edit the HTML [maniacal laughter].
Roslin has Tory
Hillary has Huma.
Roslin wins, because Tory doesn't look like she hasn't eaten for a
month.
MY FELLOW "BITTER", STUPID, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE :-)
If you think like Barack Obama, that WORKING CLASS PEOPLE are just
a bunch of "BITTER"!, STUPID, PEASANTS, Cash COWS!, and CANNON
FODDER. :-(
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be
better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on
the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-)
husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and
prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal
health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who
anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and
fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal
health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us
out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband
(Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he
absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time
against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE
AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment
is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton)
left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and
protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is
better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made
higher education affordable for every American. And created higher
job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or
since.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than
Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President
Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest
Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with
pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and
political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like
Hillary and Bill Clinton..
You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the
Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think
he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton.
:-)
Best regards
jacksmith... Working Class :-)
p.s. You Might Be An Idiot! :-)
If you don't know that the huge amounts of money funding the Obama
campaign to try and defeat Hillary Clinton is coming in from the
insurance, and medical industry, that has been ripping you off, and
killing you and your children. And denying you, and your loved ones
the life saving medical care you needed. All just so they can make
more huge immoral profits for them-selves off of your
suffering...
You see, back in 1993 Hillary Clinton had the audacity, and nerve
to try and get quality, affordable universal health care for
everyone to prevent the suffering and needless deaths of hundreds
of thousands of you each year. :-)
Approx. 100,000 of you die each year from medical accidents from a
rush to profit by the insurance, and medical industry. Another
120,000 of you die each year from treatable illness that people in
other developed countries don't die from. And I could go on, and
on...
DON'T BE DUPED !!!
Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in
the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they
feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. With
Hillary Clinton you are almost 100% certain to get quality,
affordable universal health care very soon.
But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton
takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is
the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and
waiting for. You can do this America. "Carpe diem" (harvest the
day).
I think Hillary Clinton see's a beautiful world of plenty for all.
She's a woman, and a mother. And it's time America. Do this for
your-selves, and your children's future. You will have to work
together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative.
Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are
living through now.
You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the
republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don't
want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They
want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your
children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that
you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more
immoral profits for them-selves.
Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the
vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the
vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than
it shows. And higher than Obama's. She also leads in the electoral
college numbers that you must win to become President in the
November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!
As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans
trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run
against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it
is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win
the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating
help.
Hillary Clinton has been OUT MANNED! OUT GUNNED! and OUT SPENT! 4
and 5 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous,
and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.
If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in
November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote
cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and
republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much
stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON'T BE DUPED!
Think about it. You have the most to lose.
The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. Everyone needs to
throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this
outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.
The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to
make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose
the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or
are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee
through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and
caucuses.
Fortunately the Clinton's have been able to hold on against this
fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of
Hillary Clinton's. Only the Clinton's are that resourceful, and
strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have
ever seen.
"This is not a game" (Hillary Clinton)
Sincerely
jacksmith... Working Class :-)
Mary McDonnell has also made this comparison. I think that what
it comes down to is that both Clinton and Roslin are pragmatists
(Roslin a fairly brutal one) who are viewed as divisive largely
because of personal reactions to personality traits.
As an aside, as an incredibly liberal Democrat, I'm completely
horrified at how easily my party, the media, and even a lot of
middle of the road voters have been taken in by Obama. Love her or
hate her, at least Clinton did -something- in the Senate, while she
was there. Obama did nothing for two years, then ran for president.
Not to mention little things like the fact that an Iraqi contractor
paid for $300,000 of the cost of his house. How on earth can anyone
say that that's less dirty than Hillary Clinton, or most any
elected official for that matter? And how can liberals justify
backing a man who named James "blame Hollywood Jews for Brokeback
Mountain" Meeks as one of his "spiritual advisers and mentors"
after spending 20 years hammering Republicans for ties to the
religious right? It's appalling.
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