David Weigel | March 26, 2008
Over at Human Events, Jed Babbin endorses a Republican primary reform plan that, if Scott Bakula was able to head back and implement it a few months ago, would have prevented the nomination of John McCain. Jiggle the order of the primaries every four years, and don't let independents and Democrats vote in them.
By allowing cross-over voting, the Republican Party is enabling liberals to choose its nominee. Just as conservatives demand our borders be secure against illegal aliens, conservatives insist that Republicans—and only Republicans—choose the Republican nominee for president.
Just as America cannot be a sovereign nation without secure borders, the Republican Party cannot claim to be an political entity that stands for any principle if it permits its political opponents to control its nomination process.
Actually, Republicans are damn lucky they didn't follow these rules in 2008. John McCain was the only Republican with half a chance of winning the general election. Go back and check those Mitt Romney trial heats: Hillary Clinton could have run Barack Obama over in a Sherman tank, put the video on YouTube, and still clobbered Romney like one of those "opponents" in Mike Tyson's post-Holyfield comeback.
But let's assume Babbin is making a normative argument. What's more in the interest of Republican voters: Getting the candidate that the majority of them want, or getting a more electable candidate (by definition, if he's scoring crossover votes) with whom they don't quite agree? When you ask that question, you have to ask what a "Republican voter" is. It's not a clear-cut question. I've lived in two states (Illinois and Virginia) where I did not choose to belong to a party when I registered to vote. No one did. I would show up on primary day and choose the ballot I wanted, Republican or Democrat. A lot of states run their elections like this: Is the quadrennial choice of a presidential candidate worth overturning all their laws?
What about the states where people join up to vote by party? In every one of them, you can change your affiliation at any time. In some of them, you can do that on election day... in some of them, you can sign a statement explaining why you've done so, how honest you are in your new affiliation, etc. The pool of voters who are always going to vote Democratic, or always going to vote Republican, is fungible. Asserting their right to a nominee is asserting that the idea of a presidential primary is pure democracy, which it clearly is not, and shouldn't be.
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Good questions, Dave. I suppose these guys should just take the thing one step farther and eliminate their primaries altogether. At least it would save the taxpayers money upfront.
I also should say I think you're right to look at on a normative level. Of course a party retains a right to choose its candidates however it wants (which is why I don't gripe about closed primaries the way some independents do). But what they SHOULD do...that's the real question.
Yeah, a lot of conservatives were upset that Romney lost, which
I found endlessly amusing.
conservatives insist that Republicans-and only
Republicans-choose the Republican nominee for president.
And then only Republicans will vote for him.
I would show up on primary day and choose the ballot I
wanted, Republican or Democrat.
But that is inherently a bad way voting people into office.
We're only talking about political parties here, the government as
an enitity should not be guaranteeing any party's existence. If you
are a member of a party, you and only members of your party should
be involved in nominating its candidate. Likewise, there should be
no legal restriction on the number of political parties on can be a
member of at any one time, although it should be OK for a party to
exclude members for any reason. If a party gets so big that it
can't regulate itself, that is the party's problem not
government's.
The only reason primaries are open here is because Harry F.
Byrd, Sr. wanted his machine to be able to control the nominee of
both parties.
I'm sure Illinois, with its history of machine politics, has a
similar reason why its primaries are open.
Its a method very open to corruption.
"We're only talking about political parties here, the
government as an entity should not be guaranteeing any party's
existence."
The majority-minority system in congress and the committee
structure pretty much insures that independents and small party
candidates will never gain influence from scratch.
Actually, Republicans are damn lucky they didn't follow
these rules in 2008. John McCain was the only Republican with half
a chance of winning the general election.
David has gone from making bad predictions that were proven wrong
(McCain is Dead) to bad predictions that no one can prove in this
universe. Brilliant and completely worthless.
A scenario in which Romney gets the nomination and benefits in the
polls, just as McCain is now, is more plausible then a scenario in
which he would not benefit.
Also:
I wonder if Democrats voting for Romney (so that the Dem would have
an easier opponent) offset Democrats voting for McCain (because
they'd rather see him as president).
The issue is not how a private organization like the Republican
Party chooses its representatives.
The issue is that the two major political party are using the legal
system to block ballot access for other private
organizations.
It's as if Coke and Pepsi managed to get laws written that
restricted Royal Crown from putting products on retail shelves
(regardless of whether or not the retailer wants to carry Royal
Crown) without first establishing a legally-verifiable demand for
their products.
McCain's the only Republican who could stand a chance in the general? I'm no Romney fan, but I think he would've stood an excellent chance, too. I'm rather surprised by the consistent chant coming from the left and left-libertarians that Obama and/or Clinton are such tough candidates. They seem quite vulnerable to me, especially given their weak résumés.
If Romney had run as a common-sense business Republican instead of re-inventing himself into some phoney-baloney "movement" conservative, he could've one this thing especially with the way the economy is now.
This year Rush encouraged his listeners to vote for Hillary (the
perceived weaker Dem) in the primaries once McCain had the
nomination locked up. Perhaps now that this trick has been played
very publicly, the Republicans don't want that table turned on them
in the future.
Anyway, it's a party decision. I'll never join, so I don't really
care, but I think it will lead to them being further marginalized.
That may be a good thing.
I don't think any political hack not on the Romney payroll would
dispute me on this.
1)Romney was a Mormon, which weakened him among voters crucial to
electing Bush in 2000 and 2004. You saw this in state-by-state
polls: Huge swathes of the South became competitive with Romney on
the ballot.
2)Romney had little cross-over appeal and low favorable numbers.
I've seen polls that put his negatives higher than Hillary
Clinton.
3)Romney was defined early on as a flip-flopper, and there were
hours of video showing him saying one thing and then taking the
opposite position a few years later. By the start of voting in the
primaries, I'd already heard Sportscenter and late night hosts use
his name as a punchline.
I thought the Republicans (at least the Limbaugh strain) were voting for Clinton. I'm not sure it's because they think she's the best leader. What's a bit more hypocracy?
Dave Weigel | March 26, 2008, 2:41pm | #
4. Romney was also treated with more angst by the MSM than any
other candidate in either of the 2008 primaries.
Dave,
Yep, exactly the points I made at the time.
I was disappointed that movement conservatives showed such little
principle in supporting Romney, who had been quite liberal before
he decided to run for President, simply because he pandered to them
for a few months.
Of course, being pro-choice myself, I actually found Romney more
palatable before his conversion.
And pro-gay-marriage, though I'm not sure how much Romney changed on that issue.
TallDave | March 26, 2008, 2:50pm | #
The movement conservatives were scurrying around with their head
cut off. It was not until it was down to Romney, Huck, and McCain
that they solidified their support. That is what surprised me, just
how fast the Talk Radio PR Campaign could rewrite history. People
that were cool on Romney were fierce supporters within a month. He
went from afterthought to Ronald Reagan in what seemed like a
couple of weeks.
I have genuine problems with the whole primary system as it
stands today. The government subsidizes the two major parties with
taxpayer funded registration rolls and primary elections.
My proposal is let the parties have any process that they desire,
but don't stick one thin dime of the costs to the taxpayers. Why
the hell are we passing LAWS about primary elections? The two major
parties are not part of government, and I'm sick and tired of them
being treated like they are.
Hillary Clinton could have run Barack Obama over in a Sherman tank, put the video on YouTube, and still clobbered Romney like one of those "opponents" in Mike Tyson's post-Holyfield comeback.
Dave, you owe me a new monitor.
Weigel wrote, "What's more in the interest of Republican voters:
Getting the candidate that the majority of them want, or getting a
more electable candidate (by definition, if he's scoring crossover
votes) with whom they don't quite agree?"
But is that the choice? If the candidate is getting "crossover
votes," that may only mean than an organized faction from the
opposition has determined to "nominate" the candidate that will do
worst against "their guy." Getting "crossover votes" is no
indication of general popularity of electability, and may indeed
indicate the opposite. You might be able to leave primaries "open"
yet deter crossover saboteurs if you included a "poison pill"
provision along the lines of, if ANY candidate gets an outright
majority of votes in a primary election, he or she will be deemed
the winner and no election for that office will be held at general
election time. In the case of Presidential contest, I suppose, the
rule could be that the primary-majority winner would automatically
be allocated the State's electoral votes come November.
All the above being said, I still think that parties should be able
to nominate their own and exclude outsiders from voting. As others
have said above, I don't think that the State should be in the
business of "defining" freedom of association, or
disassociation.
Oops. That should have been, "no indication of general popularity OR electability..."
The nomination of McCain just proves that the GOP has become the
Party of War. He disagrees with the Republicans on just about
everything (or has only very recently come around to the orthodox
GOP views), but because hes all for more wars he gets the nod
anyway.
All you have to do is be 1)Pro life and 2)pro war and you're an
acceptable nominee.
American voter prejudice is an interesting issue. Is it
generally more anti-Mormon than anti-black or even anti-female? Or
anti-Clinton? No, I don't think we can say that with any
confidence.
I don't put any credence in primary polls, especially when they're
dealing with hypothetical matchups, and Clinton especially has no
business casting any flip-flop stones. Again, I don't like Romney
at all, but he has some serious credentials lacking altogether in
either of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's nothing to
sneeze at.
Richardson should've been the nominee for the Democrats, but either
he or their voters screwed up.
David,
The trial heats re: Romney and potential Dem opponents were even
more worthless than the current McCain v. DEM surveys. In fact,
Romney was the only Democrat--as a governor, with market economy
experience, a history as a social/cultural moderate, distance from
Bush/Washington/war, not to mention attractive, with an attractive
family--who had much of any chance of defeating a Democrat this
year. When I hear allusions to these preposterous early match-ups
by pollsters, I always remind my political journalism students (who
sometimes listen to me) that Walter Mondale led Ronald Reagan in
the polls in January 1984!!
All you have to do is be 1)Pro life and 2)pro war and you're
an acceptable nominee.
The GOP: We're pro-life, until you're born.
But seriously, McCain just out-campaigned the other guys in the
old-fashioned way of going to diners, shaking hands, and kissing
babies. The new-fangled campaigns of Giuliani and Thompson ( who
was also pro-life/war) didn't pan out.
McCain's narrative is a lot stronger than Romney's. McCain is Bush
without the fatal flaws (no chicken-hawk, anti-torture). Romney was
the Republican John Kerry, and smart GOP voters dumped him.
Romney and Richardson were somewhat similar in that they both looked good on paper in terms of demonstrated experience and competence, but were missing something vital in practice. Richardson had the charisma of a not very energetic lump of granite, which was a fatal weakness in this cycle. And Romney... I don't know quite what it was, but there seemed to be something ever-so-slightly repulsive about him. Never underestimate the squick factor.
The nomination of McCain just proves that the GOP has become
the Party of War
Well, I prefer to think of it has helping the Iraqis establish some
semblance of a liberal democracy. It is the most important
issue for me, which is why it's unlikely I can support a Dem this
time around unless they moderate significantly, despite my
social-liberal preferences otherwise.
Giulani lost because he was pro-choice. If he had been pro-life
from the beginning he would've won it.
Thompson just lost because he was, well, boring as hell even though
he had some interesting positions. Though, because his respect of
federalism he stated that he would not sign a national ban on
abortion if Roe v. Wade was overturned probably helped sink him as
well.
Dave, you forgot "launch a war with Iran" which I absolutely
guarantee will happen under a McCain Presidency. I'd bet money on
it.
We'll probably have a draft, too.
That guy is the biggest militarist in the last 100 years.
Cesar,
War with Iran is very unlikely, draft is virtually impossible
unless we're nuked or something.
if Scott Bakula was able to head back and implement it a few
months ago
What does Captain Archer have to do with this? Oh, I see, you were
referring to that other shitty show Bakula was in.
I have genuine problems with the whole primary system as it
stands today. The government subsidizes the two major parties with
taxpayer funded registration rolls and primary elections.
My proposal is let the parties have any process that they desire,
but don't stick one thin dime of the costs to the taxpayers. Why
the hell are we passing LAWS about primary elections? The two major
parties are not part of government, and I'm sick and tired of them
being treated like they are.
I think the fundamental issue here is that, in practice, the two
major parties actually are part of the government.
@Pro Libertate
McCain's the only Republican who could stand a chance in the
general? I'm no Romney fan, but I think he would've stood an
excellent chance, too. I'm rather surprised by the consistent chant
coming from the left and left-libertarians that Obama and/or
Clinton are such tough candidates. They seem quite vulnerable to
me, especially given their weak résumés.
Gotta agree with you there - if the Republicans had nominated
Romney, they'd have still gotten my vote. Obviously, my first
choice would have been Ron Paul, but that was just as obviously
never going to happen. If they'd nominated Giuliani, I'd probably
still have held my nose and voted for him. But Bomber John "100
Years War" McCain?
No way in hell! Suddenly Obama looks like the least vomitive
candidate of the lot.
I tried hard to stick with the Republicans, but, sorry, McCain is
deal-breaker for me...
Episiarch,
I thought the last season of Enterprise was decent. I
couldn't abide all of the time travel nonsense of the earlier
seasons, though. Egad.
But Bomber John "100 Years War" McCain?
Actually, what McCain said was he'd be happy to have troops there
for 100 years if, as in S Korea and Germany and Japan, they weren't
taking high numbers of casualties.
Really Dave? Because John McCain is already promising us "other
wars, my friends" and us told us theres going to be a lot of
"combat wounds, a lot of PTSD".
Sounds like a prelude to Iran to me.
The only way you get troops for that is through a draft.
TallDave having permanent bases in Iraq (which the war supporters in 2003 swore up and down we wouldn't have) is something that sounds insane even to some war supporters now.
I thought the last season of Enterprise was
decent.
I used to respect you, but that time is over. It's not that you
thought any season of Enterprise was decent. It's that you actually
continued watching after the first season.
having permanent bases in Iraq (which the war supporters in
2003 swore up and down we wouldn't have) is something that sounds
insane even to some war supporters now.
A 99-year lease is not a "permanent" base. And we will need those
bases when we invade Saudi Arabia (who needs Iran).
Episiarch,
I ignored the series after watching the first episode. In a fit of
ennui, I later watched it on DVDs checked out from the local
library (needing DVDs for entertainment during my daily workout).
In no way did I officially sanction or finance the show. However, I
will say that I think that Voyager was worse.
If only the vastly superior Firefly had been given more
than half a season!
For those keeping score, my new workout entertainment is the
original Mission: Impossible series, interspersed with the
usual Teaching Company DVDs.
What about the states where people join up to vote by party? In every one of them, you can change your affiliation at any time.
Wrong! In NY, the effective date of a change in enrollment works
such that you'd have to wait at least a year to vote in the primary
of the party you're switching to. I'm pretty sure there are other
states with similar anti-interference provisions in their election
law.
That is what surprised me, just how fast the Talk Radio PR
Campaign could rewrite history.
PC,
See John McCain and the National Review. He's gone from pariah to
Eisenhower + John Wayne.
If only the vastly superior Firefly had been given more than
half a season!
I'm not speaking to you. But I'll tell VM to tell you that you're
right.
VRWC | March 26, 2008, 3:50pm | #
The McCain flip was predictable, the Romney flip was somewhat
predictable but I had no idea how successful it would be. Since it
happened so late it could not overtake McCain. Also once again the
Massachusetts and Mormon things really hurt him from gaining the
momentum anyone else would have gotten.
I haven't been following the National Review but I have been
keeping an eye on the Talk Radio Media Machine and they fully
utilized the NYTimes story to do their flip flop. Before the story
I would comment on conservative sites wondering out loud when, not
if, all these disgruntled "conservatives" were going to crawl to
McCain with their tail between their legs with especially Rush in
mind. Ever since McCain got the nomination I end every McCain
comment on "conservative" blogs with the statement that they will
vote for amnesty and like it.
If Romney's science fiction choices had been better, maybe I would've voted for him. But Battlefield Earth? Shudder. He lost the anti-Scientologist and the geek vote all at once.
Battlefield Earth was a brilliant choice. I think it
was Weigel's theory that he picked it to highlight a quacky
religion that is so quacky that his quacky religion would no longer
look so quacky in comparison.
I won't have too much longer before I get to see 'ol Romney
regularly again, he's gonna get the nod to be VEEP.
Battlefield Earth?
Yeah, the whole series was awful. I read most of it when I was
12.
Cab,
I don't think so, though it's possible he was bought off with the
vice presidency.
Referencing Scientology to me highlighted his quirky
religion (i.e., you shouldn't cast stones, Mitt). I'm sure I wasn't
alone. And he said it was his favorite book, if I recall correctly.
That's like saying Wright is your favorite minister (just
kidding).
Cesar,
I doubt he actually promised more wars, and again a draft is
virtually impossible unless we suffer some sort of catastrophe.
Besides the draft being incredibly unpopular, the professional
military has made it pretty clear they don't want draftees, as they
make poor soldiers.
As for the permnanent bases in Iaq, the elected Iraqi gov't has
asked for our help, and can ask us to leave at their discretion.
Iranians are unlikely to extend a similar invitation.
I concede "brilliant" may have been a bit much.
Poor Romney. The more he got picked on, the more I was rooting for
the poor bastard.
"Theres going to be other wars my friends, other wars. We're
going to have a lot of combat wounds, a lot of PTSD, and my friends
its going to be though, we're going to have a lot to do. We will
never surrender, but there will be other wars".
What "other wars" is he referring to?
If only the vastly superior Firefly had been given more than
half a season!
I'd settle for another movie.
I love the scene (from the series iirc)where the guy promises to
get revenge on Mal, and Mal pragmatically kicks him into the
engine.
What "other wars" is he referring to?
Well, unless you think we've just entered a utopian phase of
history in which there will never be be another war, he's just
echoing what Plato said thousands of years ago: only the dead have
seen the end of war.
TallDave-
Hes not talking about some distant future. Hes talking about during
his term. He didn't say there MIGHT be other wars, he said there
WILL be other wars during his term.
The guy is a militarist and has a chip on his shoulder about losing
Vietnam. I fear hes going end up working out his issues on the
world stage with very bad results.
"What "other wars" is he referring to?"
Destabilization of the middle east into a region wide conflict. The
"war of civilizations" that Kristol and company talked about. I
really think a draft is on the way but there has to be a uniting
catalyst. Absent some pearl harbor or 9/11 like event this will be
hard to accomplish but I don't think that will be a problem.
Also he is trying his damndest to start a cold war with Russia all
by himself. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
If you think the current exploitation of "patriotism" is absurd
just wait.
PC, not to mention the guy has a really, REALLY short
fuse.
He'd answer that phone at 3 am and blow up the world in the
process.
Cesar | March 26, 2008, 4:44pm | #
He's Teddy Roosevelt with a shorter fuse, a neocon cabinet, and
nukes.
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.
I liked the original incarnation of RomneyBot. Tolerant, independent and got by on competence. RomneyBot2000 scared me. It was like someone at PNAC hacked his brain.
I don't think any political hack not on the Romney payroll
would dispute me on this.
1)Romney was a Mormon, which weakened him among voters crucial to
electing Bush in 2000 and 2004. You saw this in state-by-state
polls: Huge swathes of the South became competitive with Romney on
the ballot.
2)Romney had little cross-over appeal and low favorable numbers.
I've seen polls that put his negatives higher than Hillary
Clinton.
3)Romney was defined early on as a flip-flopper, and there were
hours of video showing him saying one thing and then taking the
opposite position a few years later. By the start of voting in the
primaries, I'd already heard Sportscenter and late night hosts use
his name as a punchline.
A hack or someone who reads reason Hit and Run for their news...it
is not as if you guys covered Romney.
The GOP: "We're pro-life, until you're born."
The DEM: "We're pro-choice, until you can afford it."
Hes not talking about some distant future. Hes talking about
during his term. He didn't say there MIGHT be other wars, he said
there WILL be other wars during his term.
He didn't actually say that, but likely there will be, just as
there were during the admins of Clinton, Bush I, Reagan, Carter,
Ford, Nixon, LBJ, JFK, Eisenhower, Truman, and FDR.
PC, not to mention the guy has a really, REALLY short
fuse.
This from the guy that is constantly demanding we stop looking at
Obama's character and talk about issues.
If one cent of public money is spent on a State Primary it should be open.If the Parties want to limit voting to registered members let them hire private polling places and fully fund the election.
I think raising a candidates temperment is legitimate, since hes
going to have the ability to destroy the world.
Maybe you don't.
FWIW Hillary Clinton's crying before every primary she loses
raises issues about her stability.
Call me sexist if you want but its a real concern.
I think raising a candidates temperment is legitimate, since
hes going to have the ability to destroy the world. Maybe you
don't.
I do think it's legitimate; as I've said before, character matters.
I just find your inconsistency on the subject amusing.
If the President has a short fuse, it could mean the difference
between war and peace.
If the President's preacher says something, it doesn't mean jack
shit. No blood is going to be spilled over it.
Do you see the difference?
I don't like the temperament of any of the remaining candidates for international emergencies. Could we just operate with a vacancy in the White House for the next four years?
"If one cent of public money is spent on a State Primary it
should be open.If the Parties want to limit voting to registered
members let them hire private polling places and fully fund the
election."
SIV is 100% right on this. Taxpayers pay, everyone of them should
be able to play.
Yeah, the Republican lucked out here. If they picked any of
the other candidates that were running, they would have
guaranteed to lose come November to either Obama or Clinton-the
only question would be would it be a squeaker or a 40-state blowout
for the Democrat. At this particular moment McCain is about tied
with Obama and beating Clinton (although Obama was beating McCain
fairly soundly until the Wright thing, but that is starting to wear
off, especially after Obama's speech on the topic, so things are
changing back to Obama being ahead). At the beginning of this
process, being tied at this point was best case scenerio for the
Republicans. All the indicators (fundraising, party identication of
the voting public, number and quality of challengers running in
Congress, number of retirees in Congress, number of legitimately
contested seats held by each party, public opinion on the issues,
etc.) favor the Democrats this go around.
As for closed primaries vs. open ones, the choices are obvious-do
you go for the electable candidate or the one more like the party
base? McCain is no liberal, despite bleating from idiots who can't
see past his (former) stance on immigration. But he was arguably
the least "Republican" of the Republicans running, excluding
Paul.
Underrated Sabbath Album. Best Cover Art Ever.
You got that right!
Weigel, you just went up about 20 notches in my book with that
thread title. I actually had tickets to see Sabbath on the second
leg of the Born Again tour, but it got canned when Gillan
decided he'd had enough and took the gazillion dollars to do the
Deep Purple reunion (which was pretty damned good, to be fair).
The trouble with closed primaries is that they tend to lock in (not really stationary, but increasing the inertia) the present alignment of the parties by disadvantaging candidates with crossover appeal. The alignment of the parties in turn feeds back to media & academe, and contributes to disrespect for 3rd, 4th, etc. alignments such as that of libertarians -- not just radical libertarians, but even moderate libertarians.
I tried to let your "post Holyfield Tyson opponent" metaphor
slide by but as a professional fight sport journalist I can't...to
make this work you need to specify post Holyfield, **pre-Lennox
Lewis**. Following his two fights against Holyfield--the 2nd a DQ
loss due to the infamous ear biting incident--Tyson had his Nevada
boxing license yanked keeping him out of action for about 18
months. Upon his return he beat Frans Botha with ease and was then
involved in a bizarre no-contest against Orlin Norris. At that
point the Nevada Athletic Commission was tiring of the Tyson
circus, so he headed overseas for a couple of fights. Upon his
return to the US, a 3rd round TKO win for Tyson over Andrew Golota
became a no-contest after "Iron Mike" tested positive for
ganja...
Anyway, following his loss to Holyfield he went 4-0-2 heading into
his matchup with Lennox Lewis. Lewis destroyed Tyson, and that was
apparently the end of "Iron Mike" as a competitive
fighter--following an easy KO over Clifford Ettiene in his next
fight he suffered two back to back KO losses to journeyman Kevin
McBride and Danny Williams.
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