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Texas-14 Update: Paul Headed for a Landslide Over Peden
Until now polls in the Texas-14 congressional race have come from the Ron Paul and Chris Peden campaigns, which Paul claiming he's up big and Peden claiming he's up by low double digits. Today brings the first public poll on the race and it shows Paul cruising to a win. Key findings:
- Overall, Paul leads Peden 63-30 percent. Paul leads by 37 points with women and 29 points with men.
- Paul does best with voters under 30, winning them by 64 points. He does worst with voters between 30 and 45, winning by only 19 points.
- Paul easily wins voters whose top concerns are the economy (70-26 Paul over Peden), taxes (65-24), "moral and family values" (65-28), Iraq (64-27), immigration (59-33), and health care (52-36) The only group Peden wins is voters concerned with education: They go for him by 14 points.
- Newsletters be damned: Paul does best with non-white voters, leading among Hispanics by 45 points and other minorities by 59 points. (The district is 25 percent Hispanic, 10 percent black, and 2 percent Asian, although obviously the GOP primary vote is heavily white.)
The worst news for Paul is probably that a mere 18 percent of TX-14 voters will cast presidential ballots for him. Dean Debman of PPP says that suspending his presidential campaign probably saved his job in the house. "If he had continued to spend most of his time campaigning out of state he might have been in trouble," Debman said in a statement," but it doesn’t appear he’s facing too much damage on the home front for his national candidacy." Still, it's likely Paul will come out of the Texas primary with no convention delegates.
I've called the Peden campaign to ask about this, since they've been telling national political writers that an upset was brewing. But Peden has suggested he might run in 2010, which hints that 1)he doesn't expect to win at all and 2)he thinks he's getting set up for the eventual battle to replace Paul when he's ready to retire.
Jesse Walker|2.28.08 @ 1:48PM|#
What? Are you suggesting that Pajamas Media got a story wildly wrong?
jj|2.28.08 @ 1:53PM|#
The Dondero bump consists of Dondero voting for you and everyone else turning against you.
Episiarch|2.28.08 @ 1:56PM|#
How long has Paul held that seat? Now, the vote isn't in, and
polls are notoriously unreliable, but I was very, very surprised
that anyone gave any credence to Paul losing this.
And what people said about Dondero: unlike a stopped clock, Dondero
is never right.
LarryA|2.28.08 @ 1:59PM|#
He does worst with voters between 30 and 45, winning by only
19 points.
I'll lay odds most Republicans and Democrats would give their left
kidney for results that "bad." Unfortunately I also doubt they'll
learn anything from this.
Dave Weigel|2.28.08 @ 2:03PM|#
"I was very, very surprised that anyone gave any credence to
Paul losing this."
I thought it was sort of credible for three reasons.
1) The district was redrawn in 2003 to include new areas less
familiar with Paul.
2) A half-assed last minute primary challenge got 22 percent in
2006.
3) It was hard to gauge the impact of Paul's run and the negative
attention he got for his foreign policy stances.
I never, ever thought the newsletters would hurt him, though.
|2.28.08 @ 2:07PM|#
If Dondero says its going to happen, it won't.
So I'm going to say it now--Wayne Root won't be the LP nominee for
President.
|2.28.08 @ 2:10PM|#
Texas-14 Update: Paul Headed for a Landslide Over Peden...
...thus proving that the Director of Ron Paul's local office will
track down your aunt's Medicare reimbursement check just as well as
any other Congressman's.
The Democratic Republican|2.28.08 @ 2:11PM|#
Cesar -- too bad; he's the only one I like. I met Imperato. He's crazier than a pet raccoon.
|2.28.08 @ 2:13PM|#
quick guys can't we come up with some more racists smears on ron paul? I know those hispanics in dist 14 can't read very well, but maybe we could write some good articles using pictures that will let them know how racist Paul really is. then peden can lead texas back to the 21st century and we can finalyl get the support we need to drop some nukes on all the camel jockeys.
|2.28.08 @ 2:14PM|#
that is the real libertarian position right Poole and Micahel Young?...defend freedom by killing all of thsoe who are not free!
Bingo|2.28.08 @ 2:18PM|#
Cosmotarian Overlord is apparently still butthurt over the newsletter thing.
|2.28.08 @ 2:23PM|#
Maybe, maybe not. The fact is, so many of us in the 14th are
just sick of Paul's little games. He has failed to represent us and
instead, spends his time bashing our country.
Worse, while he claims to support us and oppose the TTC, in reality
he has been funneling backdoor earmarks for it, upwards of tens of
millions of dollars.
http://images.chron.com/content/news/photos/07/07/01/paul_earmarks/Transportation3.pdf
All of this, for his own personal narcissistic need for attention
and of course, the money.
I suggest you research the 1988 Libertarian Embezzlement scandal
that Paul was wrapped up in. Hundreds of thousands of dollars was
embezzled from the campaign into various pockets and personal PACs.
Paul's own campaign director went down for this. Look at his
expense reports, he has paid himself millions out of his own PAC
funds over the past decades. It is all a money making scheme for
him, he just hit the jackpot this year. Imagine what is happening
now that he has tricked people into donating tens of millions of
dollars.
This whole campaign is a scam. From Paul's so called observance of
constitutional principles to most of the grassroots effors (ie, Ron
Paul Racing scam, etc.)
A reporter could have a field day with this if they were so
inclined. Too bad they are all just sick of hearing constant
threats from the Paultards.
|2.28.08 @ 2:31PM|#
In some ways Dondero is the most reliable weathervane in
politics.
Eric Dondero: the George Costanza of American politics.*
A reporter could have a field day with this if they were so
inclined. Too bad they are all just sick of hearing constant
threats from the Paultards.
Yeah, Paul's supporters really have the media cowed alright. That's
why news reporters have been treating him like a serious contender
from day one.
*If every instinct you have is wrong, the exact opposite must be
right!
|2.28.08 @ 2:42PM|#
"spends his time bashing our country."
He doesn't bash our country, he bashes our statist government which
infringes on our rights and meddles in countries which we have no
business in, thus endangering us from terrorism.
PC|2.28.08 @ 2:45PM|#
Nah MNTX seems like a Wonkette vagrant. Most right wing sites use "Paulites", "Ronulans", "Birchers", but "Paultard" not so much.
|2.28.08 @ 2:54PM|#
"The best names I've heard are stormfronters. I take that name
with pride."
Apparently, MNTX isn't able to refute my arguments, so he resorts
to namecalling under my tag.
The Democratic Republican|2.28.08 @ 2:56PM|#
Cesar -- I never met Badnarik; while I have complete contempt for the man and his "campaign" skills, I haven't actually seen him interact with humans.
|2.28.08 @ 3:18PM|#
So anyway, what does Reason think about the situation with the dollar? What should the Fed do? Let me some sunshine, libertarians :)
Shane Brady|2.28.08 @ 3:24PM|#
If Ron Paul was so far ahead to start with, why did he send out
a panicked email begging for money?
Does anyone actually know where all his money is getting spent
on?
|2.28.08 @ 3:30PM|#
I believe so strongly in Ron Paul that I donated to his
Congressional campaign...and I live in Ohio!!!!
Ron Paul for President 2008
Long live the R3volution.
|2.28.08 @ 3:43PM|#
It's dumb, ignorant, and rude comments like yours Shane Brady
that make my skin crawl. Go back to your Peden-McInsane sites and
give them all your 3OVL.
Dr. Paul and his supporters will run the r3VOLution, thank
you!
I'm from PA and donated also and could care less how he spent my
donation. That's why they call it a DONATION! Uh, no strings!
|2.28.08 @ 3:48PM|#
Shane, the request for money came weeks ago. This poll is very recent. The request was in response to Peden's poll, before Paul's campaign had conducted any polls.
robc|2.28.08 @ 3:51PM|#
...thus proving that the Director of Ron Paul's local office
will track down your aunt's Medicare reimbursement check just as
well as any other Congressman's.
Actually, he does it better. Thats how Paul is able to return some
of his office money every year.
|2.28.08 @ 3:59PM|#
Guys, I'm as pro-Ron Paul as they come. But can we please refrain from the negative personal attacks? It certainly doesn't advance our cause.
Shane Brady|2.28.08 @ 4:32PM|#
Paige,
That's been pretty much par for the course for a lot of Ron Paul
supporters.
And for the record, my comments echoed a lot of comments from
ronpaul2008.com where some people are frustrated at the
consistently poor finishes in primaries and nothing to show for
their money.
|2.28.08 @ 4:55PM|#
>> That's been pretty much par for the course for a lot of
Ron Paul supporters.
Of course all Ron Paul supporters are exactly alike. We're all bad,
immature, rude, etc. etc. etc. And no one else is rude, no one else
is immature, no matter how many names they call us "paultard",
"conspiracy theorist", etc. etc. etc. You, and everyone else who
belittles people because of their political beliefs, are the good
guys, we are the bad guys because we support the man who we think
is best for america and for the world.
Republicae|2.28.08 @ 4:56PM|#
Shane Brady...Dr. Paul has run one of the most transparent
races, both Congressional and Presidential, especially in terms of
finance. I mean when you consider Dr. Paul has returned nearly a
Million Dollars to the Treasury since 1995 from his Congressional
Office Budget; it is hard to understand how anyone could question
his use of funds. Obviously, the man knows how to budget and use
our funds wisely on every level. Afterall, considering that he has
run this campaign, both campaigns, without doing into debt speaks
volumes and is far more than any other candidate has done thus
far.
Also, if you question where the money has been spent it is easy
enough to go to the Federal Election Commission website instead of
seeking to raise such questions in an effort to cast doubt on Dr.
Paul.
John Cosmotarian jackson|2.28.08 @ 5:28PM|#
Ron Paul doesn't steal money or anything, but his campaign certainly mismanages ( as in spends it on stuff that is ineffective)it. I think his spending in office is a lot more frugal. He doesn't like spending tax dollars, but contributions are another thing. And hey I'm alright with that. People choose to donate money in those cases. They dont mind he has no chance or spends it on Tancredo tactics.
Eric Dondero|2.28.08 @ 8:01PM|#
I'll take that bet. $20 bucks says Dondero does not show up on this thread.
Eric Dondero|2.28.08 @ 8:04PM|#
Yeah, I guess I'm a good weathervane for losing campaigns.
That's why on Nov. 6, 2006 when Republicans were getting hammered
all over the United States I was up in Anchorage at the victory
party for the women I had been campaigning for the few days prior
to the election.
You might have heard of her. She's a Republican. And now being
talked about as a possible Vice-Presidential pick for John
McCain.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Oh, and btw, polls just before the election had Palin running
slightly behind or tied with Tony Knowles. She ended up winning
with 60%.
So much for that weathervane theory 'eh?
Graham|2.28.08 @ 9:45PM|#
Dondero, quit trying to make yourself seem more important than you really are. Just cause you flew out to Alaska to kiss some ass and bring coffee and doughnuts, and were in the back of the room when Sarah Palin came through, doesn't make you some political insider.
|2.28.08 @ 10:20PM|#
in the late 1990s, message boards were a way for individual
stock traders to exchange information.
Then, the scumbag bottom-feeder hedge funds figured out that they
could create several dozen different identities, spread
disinformation, and influence the prices of small-cap stocks to
their benefit. Today, the stock message boards are a worthless,
useless joke.
Folks need to keep in mind, as they read these political blog
threads, that the various political operatives are just as capable
of figuring out this trick and using it.
Folks also need to keep in mind the history of mankind. This
history repeats itself in an endless cycle, primarily because the
average person goes to great lengths to avoid thinking. Right now,
we are watching the global monitary elite pull out all the stops to
keep their stranglehold on the world. This will fail, as it always
does; the American Empire will collapse and the result will be a
global depression lasting for decades if not centuries; it will
most likely end with the rise of the Asian Empire, led by China.
The last such occurance was brought about by the fall of the Roman
Empire, and is glossed over in our history books as "The Dark
Ages."
Eric Dondero|2.28.08 @ 10:27PM|#
Graham, what makes you think I was "in the backroom" eating
donuts in Anchorage? Do you have some sort of evidence of
that?
I suggest you contact Libertarian Party State Chairman Jason Dowell
for the inside story of what exactly went on those last three days
in Anchorage prior to the election, regarding the LP and Sarah
Palin.
It's actually quite a story.
Eric Dondero|2.28.08 @ 10:28PM|#
BTW, you all need to see this.
Steve Kubby just attacked his own Campaign Coordinator Tom Knapp
for his attack piece on Wayne Root.
Kubby said he completely distances himself from Knapp's
remarks.
The LP race has taken a nasty turn indeed.
Eric Dondero|2.28.08 @ 10:30PM|#
Hey Graham, was I "in the back room eating donuts" when Ron Paul
first won his Congressional race in 1996?
Tell us please, wanna hear it out of your mouth, that I was a
"back-roomer donut eater" in Ron Paul's '96 campaign.
|2.28.08 @ 11:11PM|#
Sure, Dondero, but what we all want to know is how cold was it when you were campaigning? That winter was pretty warm IIRC.
|2.29.08 @ 1:08AM|#
Is "back-roomer donut eater" some sort of gay code phrase? If not, it should be.
Joe Prax|2.29.08 @ 3:27AM|#
OK if Dondero got in up here we need to build a wall at the border. Imigration is a larger problem than I thought. Palin was never behind Knowles and besides she is sharp, not that you would need to be to detect a hanger on like Dondero. There are other places he could visit up here like the Rat Islands out in the Aleutians but that would be a mean thing to do to a bunch of rats.
|2.29.08 @ 3:38AM|#
Dave Weigel: "1) The district was redrawn in 2003 to include new
areas less familiar with Paul."
I think you're making an assumption regarding how well known and
respected Ron Paul is outside his district. I personally know one
guy from the Houston area (but not TX-14) who has previously
donated to Dr. Paul's campaigns and had this to say:
"He's kind of a big deal in the Houston-area. A lot of people
respect him."
Of course, that's paraphrased, but Ron Paul is not an unknown down
in those parts by any measure.
Eric Dondero|2.29.08 @ 6:08AM|#
Jack, LOL. That was hilarious!
"Back room donut eater is code for Gay guy."
Only, how does the donut hole fit into all of it?
Eric Dondero|2.29.08 @ 6:12AM|#
Joe Prax, I bet to differ.
I was glued to Anchorage radio the days before the election. That
afternoon show, comes on at 3:00 pm. What is it? And even the
leftist PBS station, and that other leftist indie station.
All the liberal media in Anchorage were trying to downplay Palin
those last few days, raising the mantra that she could lose to the
"powerful" Tony Knowles.
Those of us supporting here were scared shitless that she'd go down
to defeat. Thusly, the victory on election night was ever more
sweeter.
That day we'd been in the dumps. And by 8:00 pm it was heaven on
earth, with the Princess herself sashaying into the crowd at the
Egan Center to thousands of adoring fans.
Knowles stood on a platform at one side of the enormous room, and
conceded defeat.
Palin stood on the other side, thanked all her supporters, thanked
Knowles, and even thanked the Libertarian Party of Alaska.
|2.29.08 @ 8:20AM|#
"2) A half-assed last minute primary challenge got 22 percent in
2006."
Well, yeah. But she (Cynthia Sinatra) did spend 150,000 dollars of
her own money on her campaign. That's pretty significant.
LarryA|2.29.08 @ 9:42AM|#
You might have heard of her. She's a Republican. And now
being talked about as a possible Vice-Presidential pick for John
McCain. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Now that is interesting. I'd vote for her in a heartbeat, despite
McCain sitting in first chair.
svf|2.29.08 @ 12:45PM|#
She's a Republican. And now being talked about as a possible
Vice-Presidential pick for John McCain. Alaska Governor Sarah
Palin.
Let me go out on a limb here for a moment...
... no way in HELL.
Eric Dondero|2.29.08 @ 8:45PM|#
Rush Limbaugh has her up on his website today as the Top VP pick
for McCain.
Story at www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com
|2.29.08 @ 11:25PM|#
McCain's top three choices for VP currently are:
Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota
Matt Blunt, Governor of Missouri
Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida
Tannim|3.3.08 @ 12:36AM|#
"Steve Kubby just attacked his own Campaign Coordinator Tom
Knapp for his attack piece on Wayne Root."
I'll take "Who Cares?" for $200, Alex.
|3.5.08 @ 10:29AM|#
Should really state: Dave Weigel's yellow journalism regarding the Ron Paul newsletters be damned. Which is exactly what it was. Thanks Dave, for being a good cosmotarian. When's your McCain endorsement coming out? Reason itself could then change it's tagline to "Mangy Minds and Managed Markets."
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