New at Reason

February 20, 2008

Do you feel a little bit of excitement stirring about this election? Not so fast. Jeff Taylor argues that the two-party choice—especially on economics—is looking a lot more like Dukakis versus Bush.

Comments

|2.20.08 @ 12:09PM|#

Except for the whole 100 years in Vietnam thing. It's insulting to HW to compare him to Senator Flashback.

Franklin Harris|2.20.08 @ 12:16PM|#

I was thinking more like Ford vs. Carter.

Taktix®|2.20.08 @ 12:18PM|#

Cheshire Cat vs. a sack of rattlesnakes someone whacked with a stick 30 years ago

Michael Ejercito|2.20.08 @ 12:19PM|#

Too bad Republicans did not nominate Ron Paul.

|2.20.08 @ 12:20PM|#

Too bad Republicans did not nominate anyone with a soul.

|2.20.08 @ 12:24PM|#

Too bad Republicans are actually Democrats.

|2.20.08 @ 12:39PM|#

This really has become a one issue race (Iraq), hasn't it? If so, and if McCain can't find any other way to differentiate himself, he's doomed.

|2.20.08 @ 12:52PM|#

General Election, I say the Democrats beat the Republicans by a Margin of 2% or greater Nationally. Which would be a landslide by recent election standards..

|2.20.08 @ 12:56PM|#

I say the Democrats beat the Republicans by a Margin of 2% or greater Nationally. Which would be a landslide by recent election standards..

And a mandate to institute socialized medicine, full gun confiscation, price controls and profit seizing of energy companies, and a pony for every man, woman, and child.

|2.20.08 @ 12:58PM|#

Come on sage you can pay for it all. Just repeal the Bush tax cuts for the top 1%! It fixes everything! /sarcasm

PC|2.20.08 @ 12:58PM|#

This reminds me of those football commercials at the end of the season where they show popular pre season predictions that ended up being completely wrong.

George Allen is the frontrunner
Hillary is inevitable.
McCain is done.
Huckabee won't break five percent.
Rudy is a lock.
Fred is going to win.
Now its the Obama is going to win.

There are eight month to make Obama look like a complete and total novice. His speeches are great oratory, but he stutters and is rather boring in debates and conversations. Obama is not invincible, also racist Dems won't vote for him, depending on how big that group is, and I think many hispanics will vote McCain.

It's not over by any means. If Obama is a stock, sell for the time being because I don't think its going to get much higher. I see a much larger downside. Going through the primaries unscathed just means the cuts received during the general will be fresh and new and he is not used to a hostile press. Also his "are you really ready for change" slogan last night, in an attempt to seem original in the face of the plagarism criticism, was a gift to whoever is making McCain's political advertisements. Just list a lot of his crazy political stances that he doesn't talk about and just play the "are you really ready for change" clip over again. Obama very well could end up the butt of jokes instead of a President by the time this is over.

Just remember people, Kerry seemed like a good idea to the Dems too.

|2.20.08 @ 1:02PM|#

So long as I get a pony..

|2.20.08 @ 1:04PM|#

Just remember people, Kerry seemed like a good idea to the Dems too.

If I remember correctly, it was more like "the least bad idea".

Taktix®|2.20.08 @ 1:04PM|#

and a pony for every man, woman, and child.

In light of this, I'm going Obama.

I has a pwny!

|2.20.08 @ 1:05PM|#

The problem for Obama is his platitudes are starting to wear a little thin even among his supporters I think.

|2.20.08 @ 1:10PM|#

Dukakis versus Bush.
Ford vs. Carter.
Cheshire Cat vs. a sack of rattlesnakes someone whacked with a stick 30 years ago.

Giant Douche vs. Shit Sandwich.

PC|2.20.08 @ 1:12PM|#

"The problem for Obama is his platitudes are starting to wear a little thin even among his supporters I think."

That is a big problem, but not as big of a problem as when he actually discusses his positions. Once they get on sex-ed for kindergarteners and handgun bans that will just be the tip of the iceberg.

Also they are already trying to make a joke out of the Obama supporters like they did the Paul supporters, except many Obama supporters are clueless about issues. Yesterday Mathews asked a Texas State Senator, who is supporting Obama, to name one accomplishment and the Obama supporter wouldn't discuss the matter. That awkward moment lasted about three minutes. Things are really going to get awkward as time goes on.

PC|2.20.08 @ 1:14PM|#

"Just remember people, Kerry seemed like a good idea to the Dems too."

"If I remember correctly, it was more like "the least bad idea"."

Yes some wanted Edwards instead of Kerry, but they don't like to talk about that after the Edwards-Cheney debate.

|2.20.08 @ 1:18PM|#

In my view, the reason Bill Clinton won two terms is simple.He didn't run as a socialist.If you run on gun control,higher taxes and expanded programs you mostly fail.

|2.20.08 @ 1:21PM|#

I still say Billary will steal the nomination, anyway. Just watch.

|2.20.08 @ 1:24PM|#

Yep we do got a long way to go and to counter the general tone so far..

Once all those documented instances of McCain's breakdowns in the Senate get out, they're just gonna beat the drum: "He's not clinically fit to own a gun, so we're gonna put him in charge of nuclear weapons?"

Of course Obama is a Socialist with nothing but good orator skills in the way of what to offer us. How many people actually vote on substance? Yes of course the Conservative groups will rally around McCain and aid his campaign. At the end of the day, I think it will come down to a popularity contest just like the 2004 election. Except I don't think you'll get the Christian Right to come out in record numbers this time...

|2.20.08 @ 1:25PM|#

The Democrats are skewing "populist" (that is, big government spending) because they see it as a way to pick up white, male working class voters. Will they lose too many upscale voters? Dunno. It's worth pointing out that Mitt Romney (remember him?) won the Michigan primary by basically promising to give Michigan $50 billion in walking-around money.

|2.20.08 @ 1:26PM|#

Cesar,

Always a clear possibility lurking in my mind even with all the Pro Obama Media attention going on. So what happens if it's Hillary vs McCain?

Elemenope|2.20.08 @ 1:33PM|#

So what happens if it's Hillary vs McCain?

I think Lessig summed up why she would be crushed fairly well. She's running essentially on the frame of experience and toughness, and McCain has more experience (longer public service) and is tougher (effing POW!) than she is.

She also loses because a Hillary v. McCain race would be a rehash of the same old baby boomer arguments about who was right and who was wrong in the '60s, and all the people who don't really give a shit about that stuff (i.e. everyone under the age of 40) will stay home.

|2.20.08 @ 1:36PM|#

He cannot out-debate or out-speechify his opponent, and he is prickly and prone to outbursts. In short, voters absolutely must prefer him on substance, not style, for McCain to win.

I not sold on that idea. I've heard plenty of independent minded voters who'd rather have grandpa angrypants as commander-in-chief and prefer the myth of McCain's "straight talk" to the image of Obama as the second coming of JFK. But are there enough of those voters to make a difference?

|2.20.08 @ 1:43PM|#

Just remember people, Kerry seemed like a good idea to the Dems too.

Kerry seemed like a good idea to Dems in the first 4-5 states. The vast majority of the country didn't get their vote counted in 2004.

Shannon Love|2.20.08 @ 1:49PM|#

Worse, a redistributionist-retrobutionist, actually

Good turn of phrase. I hear rhetoric of "change" but the actual policies look very retro, very 70's show to be exact. Frankly, I can't think of one new idea the Left as come up in the last 35 years beyond gay marriage and even that was and extremist idea back then.

For example, what great new Leftist idea seeks to use internet technology to change the way we live, work, manage or govern? Everything has changed since the 70's except those who call themselves Progessives.

How did we get to the point where a bunch of stuffy OLD white guys actually the ones with the novel concepts?

|2.20.08 @ 2:00PM|#

I recall Michael Barone about a month ago discussing how the average voter age will be significantly younger than it was in the last 2 presidential elections. Which means that they won't have had the experience of living through the 70's and seeing what gov regulation and price controls does....

ed|2.20.08 @ 2:02PM|#

A lot can happen between now and the election. We may just be discussing what to do about the giant invading space lizards. All other puny human concerns will be insignificant by comparison.

|2.20.08 @ 2:05PM|#

A new concept doesn't make it a good one.

As Lewis Black once said, "Democrats are the party of no ideas. Republicans are the party of bad ideas. Which means we're pretty much fucked." Or at least that's how I remember it.

Shannon Love|2.20.08 @ 2:07PM|#

*A Credit Card Bill of Rights - Obama will institute a five-star rating system to inform consumers about the level of risk involved in every credit card and establish a Credit Card Bill of Rights that will ban unilateral changes to a credit card agreement; ban rate changes to debt that's already incurred; and ban interest on fees.

This raises the very disturbing possibility that Obama and his team have no actual idea how credit cards actually work. I wonder how much of his own money he would lend out to strangers based on their credit rating with no collateral?

This idea has been shot down numerous times for the simple reason it will make it impossible for people without stellar credit ratings to get credit cards.

|2.20.08 @ 2:07PM|#

A query:

What happens if McCain strokes out? He's in his 70s, running a presidential campaign, was beaten in the head for five years, and is a high blood-pressure individual to begin with. Seriously, there is a non-neglible chance that this could happen. So does Romney become the front-runner? Huckabee? Whoever McCain has named as his VP candidate (if applicable)?

Also, pre-emptive props to Radley for getting onto SLATE with his forensics investigation. That's high-traffic internet right there.

|2.20.08 @ 2:22PM|#

Legate Damar

Castro is still alive. Franco died in his late 70s. McCain's mother is 96.

Old, angry politicians have a way of holding on.

Hes not going to die anytime soon.

|2.20.08 @ 2:26PM|#

A McCain VP... hmm... Any speculation on that?

Romney? Guiliani? Any Republican Govenors or Congressmen who would be strategically vital?

|2.20.08 @ 2:26PM|#

Governors too

|2.20.08 @ 2:33PM|#

Uh, before you guys say that McCain isn't going to raise taxes, he wants to remove the deduction on health insurance and replace it with a flat, standard deduction (that's much smaller than what most employers pay). At least Poppy Bush waited a few years before breaking his no new taxes pledge.

PC|2.20.08 @ 2:35PM|#

"A McCain VP... hmm... Any speculation on that?"

Lieberman, going for a unity 08 type deal. He needs money and he needs urban suburbs. If he was going to pick a conservative VP, he would announce it or at least leak it already and blow Huck out of the water so he would finish strong. His willingness to muddle around with Huck until he gets the delegates makes me feel he will not pick a candidate that conservatives will like. They will try to pigeonhole Obama to the far left, so they have to pick up a moderate on the other side to push him in that direction.

Paul|2.20.08 @ 2:36PM|#

This really has become a one issue race (Iraq), hasn't it?

MP, I disagree. Iraq is barely (at this moment in time) a front-running issue. Hell, I can't even turn on NPR and get a daily body count. Yes, that could change within weeks or even days, but right now, not so much.

Paul|2.20.08 @ 2:45PM|#

Just remember people, Kerry seemed like a good idea to the Dems too.

Hmm, good point. So did Gore.

allen Vanneman:

The Democrats are skewing "populist" (that is, big government spending) because they see it as a way to pick up white, male working class voters. Will they lose too many upscale voters? Dunno.

Excellent analysis. I do not, however, think they'll lose upscale voters. Upscale voters, I've found, are surprisingly populist in their own rhetoric. See: John Edwards, a very upscale voter.

Shannon Love:

This raises the very disturbing possibility that Obama and his team have no actual idea how credit cards actually work.

They're Democrats. Of course they have no idea how credit cards work. The good thing is Republicans don't know anything about them either.

Legate:

What happens if McCain strokes out? He's in his 70s, running a presidential campaign, was beaten in the head for five years, and is a high blood-pressure individual to begin with.

They said the same thing about Reagan.

|2.20.08 @ 2:50PM|#

Mo.employer provided health insurance is income.It should be taxed as such.Of course I'm in favor of treating it like car insurance.Let people buy their own with the coverage they need.

|2.20.08 @ 2:54PM|#

That's a sure way to lose the election.

|2.20.08 @ 2:56PM|#

Michael,
True, but to say it's not a new tax is a lie.

|2.20.08 @ 3:02PM|#

PC,

I'm beginning to wonder if you're a Political Strategist Incognito...

|2.20.08 @ 3:02PM|#

Jack Kemp. He called me to tell me to vote for McCain. I said no, I'm voting for Paul, but he didn't answer me, he just kept talking like he couldn't hear me at all.

|2.20.08 @ 3:03PM|#

MP, I disagree. Iraq is barely (at this moment in time) a front-running issue. Hell, I can't even turn on NPR and get a daily body count. Yes, that could change within weeks or even days, but right now, not so much.

I know the media is not making much of it now. But when these two go head to head after the conventions, where are they going to differ significantly other than Iraq?

|2.20.08 @ 3:05PM|#

Mo,I think it is more like eliminating farm and other subsidies.As in all other subsidies,it distorts the market and passes cost on to third parties.Imagine what health care would look like with companies tailoring their coverage to individuals instead of large pools of workers.

|2.20.08 @ 3:06PM|#

When the economy goes further south, the couple of Trillion we've spent in Iraq will be a big issue.

|2.20.08 @ 3:15PM|#

Once it becomes a mano y mano thing they're gonna start bringing up the fact that John McCain has been a schizo playing both sides of the tennis court on the Iraq Issue. He was saying how easy it was gonna be in 2002. Now he's been saying the American people were deceived into thinking Iraq was going to be a day at the beach. And there will be other wars my friends..

|2.20.08 @ 3:17PM|#

"Mo.employer provided health insurance is income.It should be taxed as such.Of course I'm in favor of treating it like car insurance.Let people buy their own with the coverage they need."

Granted, while employer provided health insurance is part of your income it ain't exactly like blowing your money on discretionary items like; hookers, blow, bullets, cigars and top hats. If government is going to cut us some tax slack it should be for care for ourselves with insurance.

Medical insurance is different from car insurance, in that, with car insurance you have more control of your odds of a claim by being a safe driver, minimizing your miles and trips.

Meanwhile, you can live a "healthy lifestyle" (like my deceased wife did) and just come up with an unlucky set of genes which set her up for a heart condition which ultimately killed her after 2 years and about $750,000 in hospital bills and treatment. Plus the older you become the more of a health risk you are at regardless of your lifestyle. Live to be 80 and falling out of the bed can break a leg, like my grandma, who is in the hospital for that very thing.

Total a couple of cars and a telephone pole and you're still not talking about $750,000 unless you kill or seriously injure someone.

/safe driver, no tickets in 10 years, no accidents in 20 years, no serious accidents,

//pay less for auto insurance than I do for health insurance, never had serious injury or illness, but I am over 45 so that's a risk.

|2.20.08 @ 3:23PM|#

When the economy goes further south, the couple of Trillion we've spent in Iraq will be a big issue.

And our $30 trillion unfunded liabilities won't even register. Sad.

PC|2.20.08 @ 3:29PM|#

John Q.

Yeah and McCain might come back by saying that Obama couldn't promise being out of Iraq by the end of his first term, he voted for funding before he voted against it and it took a Democratic Primary to do that, and he continues to lie by saying that he is going to end the Iraq War. Just Words. That is all Obama's Iraq rhetoric is because when it came down to votes he has been flip flopping to run for President, to fund or not to fund. McCain on the other hand will contend that he has taken hard stances such as the surge which have produced "actual results". That not only did he disagree with Bush's handling of the war, but he actually influenced a change that has brought about perceived "successes". "Just words" is another slogan that will get thrown back in Obama's face.

Of course if McCain goes after Obama on the "cut and run" rhetoric he loses horribly. Making people think that Obama will actually leave Iraq will help Obama, showing that his Iraq rhetoric is "just words" will be a winner and stick with the larger argument that he is all rhetoric. That way it shows that both will keep troops in Iraq during their term, but one will do it in a half assed manner.

|2.20.08 @ 3:30PM|#

I think it is more like eliminating farm and other subsidies.As in all other subsidies,it distorts the market and passes cost on to third parties.Imagine what health care would look like with companies tailoring their coverage to individuals instead of large pools of workers.

So taxing $1 trillion of heath insurance deductions is a-ok and not a tax, but making payroll taxes a flat tax rather than a regressive tax makes Obama a socialist?

Food is exempt from sales tax and I don't consider that a subsidy.

Would you be as nonchalant if they eliminated the mortgage interest tax deduction?

|2.20.08 @ 3:33PM|#

Health insurance should be risk based. It should also be priced according to need, not just risk, or company size (or lack there of). If Health Insurance were de-regulated today, by tomorrow most people would have at least some catastrohic coverage, prices would go down, and we could stop talking about socialized care that will bankrupt us faster than war and social security combined.

|2.20.08 @ 3:34PM|#

Mo,true,yet car insurance is different in another way.Do you expect your C.I. to pay for oil changes,tires,brakes and tune-up?Yet most expect almost total coverage for health.Yet that's not central to my point.Many people are receiving tax free income.Just because it's health care doesn't change that fact.It all so distorts the market and drives up cost for people who buy their own.

|2.20.08 @ 3:34PM|#

The State's only interest in health care should be making sure the carrier honors the contract and no one commits fraud.

|2.20.08 @ 3:37PM|#

Hmm, good point. So did Gore.

Gore's different though. If he had just run as Bill's successor instead of letting his handlers talk him into that stupid populist, eat-the-rich campaign he would never have been reduced to trying to steal the election.

He'd've won it fair and square. Noone outside of Florida would ever have heard of hanging chads or geezers in Palm Beach County that couldn't see straight.

|2.20.08 @ 3:38PM|#

By the way, if McCain croaks between May and the convention, Gingrich will "save the day." Then the general becomes a whole new ballgame.

Ron Paul will still be ignored by the party.

|2.20.08 @ 3:43PM|#

Mo,I'm talking income ,not sales tax and yes,I would get rid of the mortgage deduction,of course I have never been able to use it.The standard deduction was always higher for me.I bought a house I could afford .

Paul|2.20.08 @ 3:44PM|#

discretionary items like; hookers, blow, bullets, cigars and top hats.

Whoa, zig zag, be real careful with what you start calling "discretionary".

|2.20.08 @ 4:03PM|#

It all so distorts the market and drives up cost for people who buy their own.

You could solve this by making all health insurance tax deductible.

|2.20.08 @ 4:13PM|#

"Mo,true,yet car insurance is different in another way.Do you expect your C.I. to pay for oil changes,tires,brakes and tune-up?Yet most expect almost total coverage for health.Yet that's not central to my point.Many people are receiving tax free income.Just because it's health care doesn't change that fact.It all so distorts the market and drives up cost for people who buy their own."

The days of employer funded, low co-pay / deductible health insurance are ending soon, if not already.

Before the company I was working for went out of business a high deductible medical savings plan was implemented, cutting costs to the employer and making the employee assume more of the risk by making him pay a $3000 deductible before the insurance company ponies up 80% with you owing the remainder.

Not exactly the way it was 5 years ago, when I had a $600 a year deductible and 100% after that with preferred providers.

/I remember my mom having Blue Cross / Blue Shield back when I was a kid, hospitals basically rolled out the red carpet for you, now not so much.

|2.20.08 @ 4:16PM|#

discretionary items like; hookers, blow, bullets, cigars and top hats.

"Whoa, zig zag, be real careful with what you start calling "discretionary"."

:), it made me laugh writing it.

/note to self, top hat supply running low.

|2.20.08 @ 4:21PM|#

Why should it be deductible?It's important,but so is food and clothing.Thinking like that is why the tax code is out of control.

|2.20.08 @ 4:27PM|#

Issac Bartman, it would have helped a great deal if Bill had kept his pants zipped as well. Gore would have won in a landslide without Monicagate.

|2.20.08 @ 4:28PM|#

PC,

My friend is running for office in 2010, do you have a business card?

|2.20.08 @ 4:37PM|#

"Why should it be deductible?It's important,but so is food and clothing.Thinking like that is why the tax code is out of control."

Yes, in a libertopia, everything would be based on user fees and minimal taxes. We're in shades of grey here in taxitopia. Most behaviors that are deductible are what government encourages us to do. We are, after all, in the matrix and we're the "copper tops" powering the whole thing with our lives / taxes.

Think about it, health insurance helps the lobbyists and the insurance corporations, and the elected officials and keeps people from going to far into debt, but it also helps people access health care which is expensive, because of all the money that the government throws at people when they get old.

It is a socialist system, but it's all we got to work with, so if the government is handing out ways of getting out of paying more taxes by getting health insurance, I'm going to take advantage, because I see no viable option. (Going broke and indigent is not an option for me)

The housing deductions are even more insidious. Those buying a houses are getting a deduction, but they are also locked into that house, unless thay default and are evicted. They pay local taxes to feed the local tax base. They make the realtors, developers, insurance companies, builders, lobbyists and the right landowners rich. Those who can't buy their castle outright are serfs to the banks, and the local counties.

|2.20.08 @ 4:42PM|#

I guess you could also say that to the government, sick people are not very good "copper tops" so they want us to stay healthy and pay our taxes. SO they encourage health insurance.

|2.20.08 @ 4:47PM|#

Cesar

I'm pretty sure everyone knew that Al is not like Bill in that respect.

OK, maybe he would have had to say something like "vote for me and it'll be more of the same except I won't be getting any blowjobs from interns" in a few speeches. I'm pretty sure everyone would've believed that.

Look, I'm not sure how a Gore presidency would've panned out. Foreign affairs would likely have been the same Mad (Allbright) clusterfuck. We'd have had foreign wars but likely not as costly as Iraq (but probably every bit as pointless). I don't know about 9/11, maybe continuity would've resulted in more coherent intelligence, but I doubt it.

The only thing I'm absolutely sure would have happened with a Gore administration is that there would have been a bailout for Enron. I'm still mystified by the fact that Ken Lay gave so much money to Bush when the Clintonistas were such marvelous facillitators for his scams.

|2.20.08 @ 5:07PM|#

Issac Bartman-

Its not that Gore is a womanizer--hes the farthest thing I could imagine from a womanizer. Its that he was connected to Clinton, who "dishonered" the White House which allowed Bush to campaign on restoring "honor and dignity". Without the sex scandals Bush would've had nothing to campaign on and Gore would have won in a landslide.

|2.20.08 @ 5:32PM|#

Naturally the bailout for Enron would have been to protect the workers and pensioners whose savings were tied up in the stock, not for the fatcats. With the democrats corporate welfare's always about "the little guy" don't you know?

|2.20.08 @ 5:56PM|#

Cesar

I really disagree. I really don't think that Monicagate meant nearly as much as you think it did.

And I congratulate you on the best ever mispelling of my name. You managed to get them both wrong. At least Gunnels and joe only spell it the way the family did before they came across the channel with William the Conquerer.

|2.20.08 @ 6:09PM|#

Isaac-

Sorry for the spelling. I have a slight case of dyslexia sometimes (no joke).

|2.20.08 @ 6:21PM|#

Hey, no problem. And I guess we can agree to disagree. I'm mostly speculating anyway.

|2.20.08 @ 6:24PM|#

Do you feel a little bit of excitement stirring about this election?

I think that funny feeling in your middle is nausea, not excitement.