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A Media Black Eye in Missouri?
I see that the Associated Press called Missouri for Hillary Clinton:
Propelled largely by rural voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the important presidential testing ground of Missouri on Tuesday. Republicans Mike Huckabee and John McCain were in a tight battle for a rich delegate reward.Clinton had about 50 percent of the vote compared with about 47 percent for rival Barack Obama, with 88 percent of Missouri's precincts reporting.
Except... according to CNN, with 97 percent of the votes counted, there are only 3 counties that haven't fully reported. Boone County, home of Columbia University, where Obama is winning about 60-35. Ray County, voting 66-30 for Clinton. Vote-rich St. Louis County, going for Obama in a landslide. Unless the AP is aware of a huge cache of uncounted ballots, Obama will win the state by about 6,000 votes. It's a weird end to a night of off-kilter horse race reporting.
UPDATE 12:33: Fox News calls it for Obama. But anyone with a map could have, really.
|2.6.08 @ 12:26AM|#
I called it first, a couple threads back! I want a cookie and a
pony!
Politico called it for Clinton close to an hour ago when she was up
by several percent. They've still got it checked for her even as
Obama's ahead by ~5,000 votes. Presumably they'll get around to
changing that soon.
|2.6.08 @ 12:46AM|#
The Slate election blog had a snarky post a while back about those unreliable exit polls, which showed a narrow Clinton lead in Mizzou at a time when she was up 14% in the vote. I guess Slate doesn't have a map either.
The Wine Commonsewer|2.6.08 @ 12:52AM|#
Wait, I can't add. Victim of California Public Schools. You don't add three hours to the time it already is in DC. Never mind.
NP|2.6.08 @ 12:56AM|#
TWC,
I can't figure out what the hell you're sputtering. Maybe
you should go to bed? :)
Forever In Dreams|2.6.08 @ 12:57AM|#
Dave, it's pushing 4:00 am your time. Go to bed.
Quiet, you.
One or two more posts and dude'll be all Obamafied
Communion butt-probe hallucinations.
Colin|2.6.08 @ 1:00AM|#
It's just about 1:00 am est.
NBC is also calling it for Obama.
Strange, they have results and a winner in AK Democratic caucus,
but nothing in the Republican one.
The Wine Commonsewer|2.6.08 @ 1:00AM|#
NP, no, I need more wine.
Without thinking I added the three hour time diff to the time on
Weigel's post and I thought, sheesh, he must be tired. Then I
realized that I'm on PST and the post is dated for DC Mean Time,
and tried to correct it. [shrugs] [pours]
|2.6.08 @ 1:05AM|#
Yeah, I was a bit puzzled too - I was thinking, "is Dave posting from mid-Atlantic? Or perhaps he's been posted to the new Reason office in the South Sandwich Islands. He must have really pissed Gillespie off somehow."
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 1:16AM|#
But anyone with a map could have, really.
Where's Miss Teen South Carolina when you need her?
Miss Teen South Carolina|2.6.08 @ 1:17AM|#
Where's Miss Teen South Carolina when you need
her?
The Iraq, such as...
Jumbie|2.6.08 @ 1:20AM|#
Peachy,
Weigel killed Gillespie's dog. He's currently an involuntary
participant in a 'row across the Atlantic' event
NP|2.6.08 @ 1:23AM|#
TWC,
That I understood. It's just that when I read your last
comments I felt like I was skimming thru the more obscure parts of
Ulysses, and that tells me you do need some sleep.
:)
Or should I say, "Daybreak, gentlemen!"
The Wine Commonsewer|2.6.08 @ 1:38AM|#
.....
you do need some sleep....
Sold! I'm off to nah-nah land.
Nelson|2.6.08 @ 1:49AM|#
They've still done a better job at calling the races than Eric Dondero's pathetic blog.
John Schultz|2.6.08 @ 1:50AM|#
Small correction, the university in Columbia is the University
of Missouri (formerly UM-Columbia), while Columbia College is a
smaller college also in the same town.
I'll be interested to hear what the hold-up on the last 20-odd
precincts in Boone County was; our county clerk is considered one
of the better in the state and I don't recall the county results
being so late in previous elections.
Click \'n\' Learn|2.6.08 @ 2:02AM|#
Weigel's going to be posting all night, when he isn't out in the driveway working on his Camaro.
|2.6.08 @ 2:04AM|#
I thought it was really funny that CNN repeatedly referred to St. Louis as "notoriously slow" at counting ballots.
|2.6.08 @ 2:08AM|#
...and Lonewacko will be posting all night when he's not masturbating to his sketches of scantily clad Minutemen keeping him pure by guarding the border.
|2.6.08 @ 2:09AM|#
"...St. Louis as "notoriously slow" at counting ballots"
Sad but true.... It's happened before and I'm sure it'll happen
again (in November).
Ventifact|2.6.08 @ 2:18AM|#
But anyone with a map could have [called it for Obama], really.
So, with 100% reporting, Obama won by one
point. That sounds like the kind of race one could issue such a
certain predictions about.
Ben S|2.6.08 @ 2:31AM|#
I seldom get cause to feel proud to live in Missouri, best relish it whilst I can.
|2.6.08 @ 3:23AM|#
More very insightful and interesting election coverage from David Weige!!- One of the reasons that Reason is so stellar.
|2.6.08 @ 3:34AM|#
Well, Missouri voters did prefer a dead man to John Ashcroft - that's worth a decade of pride right there.
|2.6.08 @ 4:01AM|#
...And David Weigel makes predictions too. Very nice to read-And shows that he's really into the details of the races.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 7:22AM|#
The media deserves a black eye for it's glowing coverage of
"Huckamania."
Romney ended up with 7 states to Huck's 5 in the end. But you
wouldn't know it by watching any of the networks. All the talking
heads were unanimous: "Romney's getting beat bad, and Huckabee is
the big surprise of the night."
They just don't want to wait for the results to come in from
Colorado, Montana and Alaska.
|2.6.08 @ 8:06AM|#
Yeah, I checked about midnight CST, and McClatchey (owners of
the KC Star) gave Hillary the check mark even though Obama had
about a 5000 vote lead. Fifteen minutes later, with 99 percent
reporting, Obama's lead was nearly 7000 - no check mark for anyone
then.
The NBC affiliate in KC fucked up its reporting of the MO
Republican primary in its graphics flashing at the bottom of the
screen during the late news. For several minutes at the beginning
of the newscast, they had Ron Paul receiving 32% of the vote in the
state. In totally unrelated news, they also predicted I'd get 4-8
inches of snow at my house. Woke up this morning to an inch.
economist|2.6.08 @ 8:07AM|#
I'm actually at home 'cause I've been coming down with a cold. Are you guys always here at this time of day?
Nephilium|2.6.08 @ 8:15AM|#
Bah... you're all hobos.
I start work at 10:00-10:30...
So, yes, I'm usually bouncing around reading the overnight posts at
this time in the morning...
Nephilium
ed|2.6.08 @ 9:07AM|#
There were primaries last night? I was watching Nancy Grace. Did you know that a blond cheerleader went missing somewhere in the Caribbean last year and she's still missing?
|2.6.08 @ 9:41AM|#
ed, it's worse than that. She went missing in May of
2005.
Yep. Still missing.
Eeeyup. Still all over the news.
Really, ed. There's nothing else going on in the world, we gotta
talk about something!
Did somebody mention Brittney?
|2.6.08 @ 9:53AM|#
Of course, narrow victories in one state or another are pretty
meaningless in the Dem race, which awards delegates by
district.
And, even though Hillary "won" the go states (NY, NJ, CA), Obama is
now claiming to have won more delegates yesterday and taken a very
narrow lead in the delegate race.
Of course, there are still two huge wild cards out there in
delegate counts - MI and FL, both of which went to Hillary, and the
superdelegates, which probably also lean to Hillary.
But, if Hillary wins in the end at the convention with
superdelegates and/or by getting MI and FL seated, I don't see how
there isn't a pretty massive backlash within the Dem party against
her for having stolen the nomination. These are the same people who
still haven't gotten over the 'stolen' election of 2000, can you
imagine their reaction to blatant backroom logrolling that delivers
the nomination to Hillary?
|2.6.08 @ 9:54AM|#
And, even though Hillary "won" the go states
How "big" in my brain turned into "go" on my keyboard, I'll never
know.
|2.6.08 @ 9:59AM|#
The Democratic race is basically tied right now, but the rest of
the contest is more favorable to Obama. He could sweep about eight
states in the next week, and with the nomination process turning
towards small contests, he can spend a lot of time on retail
politics and the free media that comes with it, charming
people.
The Great Big National Machine phase of the campaign now becomes
much less important.
tarran|2.6.08 @ 10:21AM|#
RC Dean,
these things happen:
Last night I was putting together an exam for my calculus class.
Throughout the exam I wrote 'convenient' instead of
'continuous'.
Ex: "For each of the following functions, indicate whether or not
it is convenient over all real values of x, and justify your
answer."
Luckily I caught it before I sent it to the
printers.
Some critical brain cell must have died somewhere. A neuron is a
terrible thing to waste! :)
BakedPenguin|2.6.08 @ 10:29AM|#
joe, the problem is after next week. WI, TX, OH & PA - all with (at least previously) HRC leading by decent margins.
|2.6.08 @ 10:39AM|#
BakedPenguin, with the exception of Illinois, every single state
that has voted once had HRC leading by decent margins or better.
Every contest has been the same - Clinton has a commanding lead a
few weeks out, Obama closes fast, and he either catches up to her
or doesn't quite catch up to her.
Whether Obama can catch her in those states (or in which of those
states is probably a better way to phrase it) will depend to some
extent on momentum, which he will have plenty of.
|2.6.08 @ 10:41AM|#
Things don't look too bad for Obama now. Hes got a string of good primaries for him next week.
|2.6.08 @ 10:44AM|#
The "delegate by district rules" of the Democratic party ensure
that no matter who "wins" close contests, the race will remain
close.
Clinton has a commanding lead a few weeks out, Obama closes
fast, and he either catches up to her or doesn't quite catch up to
her.
Even if Obama (or Clinton) "sweeps" the next round at the state
level, the other will pick up plenty of delegates to keep it within
the margin of backroom dealing at the convention.
|2.6.08 @ 10:51AM|#
Wow, lots of typos on this Hangover Wednesday. Tarran, I once took an economics exam where "supply curve" was replaced by "supple curve."
|2.6.08 @ 11:00AM|#
RC,
I think Obama still has a shot of winning this before the
convention. He's got the wind at his back still, and it's a
question of whether he can pick up enough steam to belatedly do
what Kerry did after Iowa - win through the perception of being
inevitable.
As far as "backroom dealing," there hasn't been a brokered
convention since the olden days, when the spoils system was in
place. I don't know what a brokered convention would look like in
2008, but it probably wouldn't look like a few guys in top hats in
a smoke-filled room anymore.
|2.6.08 @ 11:22AM|#
I think Obama still has a shot of winning this before the
convention.
Me, too. But its an outside shot, given the proportional awarding
of delegates. I assume that's the rule for the remaining
states?
And I think we can rely on the Clintons not to retire from the
field until they are mathematically eliminated, even counting all
their delegates from MI and FL and all the uncommitted
superdelegates in their favor. Anything can happen, of course, but
I don't that's likely to happen before the convention.
Obama being ahead in committed delegates going into the convention,
and Hillary trying to get the nomination through rules changes and
superdelegates, is the likely scenario at this point. If she fails,
the bitterness her attempt will create should drive extra nails
into the Clinton coffin - nails I suspect will be needed before the
Clintons shuffle off thhis mortal coil. If she succeeds, it bodes
ill for the Democratic Party.
|2.6.08 @ 11:25AM|#
I don't know what a brokered convention would look like in
2008, but it probably wouldn't look like a few guys in top hats in
a smoke-filled room anymore.
What?! But top hats and cigar smoke are the best parts of
backroom dealing.
|2.6.08 @ 11:27AM|#
And I think we can rely on the Clintons not to retire from
the field until they are mathematically eliminated, even counting
all their delegates from MI and FL and all the uncommitted
superdelegates in their favor.
Oh, man, if she pulls off a nomination through that kind of
chicanery, black voters are going to be so pissed! She'd
lose the general election for sure.
|2.6.08 @ 11:28AM|#
RC,
What I'm saying is, Obama has a chance to pick up enough momentum
that he won't win by small margins in the second half of the race,
but by big enough margins to score serious delegate
advantages.
I'm not too worried about the Florida and Michigan delegates. If
there was any serious chance of that happening, we could count on
all of the Edwards, Kucinich, Dodd, and Richardson delegates to be
released to Obama.
My guess is that those delegates will only be seated after one or
the other candidates wins without them, so that their votes will be
counted, but won't change the outcome.
|2.6.08 @ 11:36AM|#
RC's scenario seems more and more probable. The Clintons will try to take the nomination by hook or by crook.
|2.6.08 @ 12:04PM|#
joe, the problem is after next week. WI, TX, OH & PA -
all with (at least previously) HRC leading by decent
margins.
no polls have been conducted in any of those states for a while or
at all. TX has not yet been seriously polled for the democratic
side.
|2.6.08 @ 12:15PM|#
IF Obama has the momentum to win convincingly as the race winds
down, then joe's scenario is probably the likely one.
However, the Clintons now have their backs to the wall, and Obama
is the one thing standing between Hillary and what she wants more
than anything else.
There was an informal truce called for Super Tuesday. Given what
just happened is probably to Hillary's Second Worst Case Scenario
for Super Tuesday, I don't think that truce will last. Hillary
tried winning nice, and gave up the momentum and the lead; the
Clintons have to conclude that the only they can win is to win
ugly. Given who they are, that means we can expect to see two of
the toughest, most amoral politicians in a generation take the
gloves off.
Can Obamamentum survive the Attack of the Clintons? Its been a long
time since anyone won betting against them, but maybe their string
has run out.
Dave Weigel|2.6.08 @ 12:22PM|#
no polls have been conducted in any of those states for a
while or at all. TX has not yet been seriously polled for the
democratic side.
The last Texas poll showed Clinton only up by 10. I see Obama
winning literally everything until March 4 - Louisiana, Nebraska,
Washington, Maine, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin - and
the Clintons claiming Texas and Ohio are the real decision-making
states.
|2.6.08 @ 12:23PM|#
RC do you think it will be Bill or Hillary that attacks Obama? I think Hillary directly attacks him this time after the strategy of using Bill as a surrogate backfired pretty badly in SC.
|2.6.08 @ 12:24PM|#
"Hillary tried winning nice, and gave up the momentum and the
lead; the Clintons have to conclude that the only they can win is
to win ugly."
But when the Clintons get nasty, that's when they really go down.
The race baiting they've done lately is largely responsible for
their recent decline.
|2.6.08 @ 12:30PM|#
"The last Texas poll showed Clinton only up by 10. I see Obama
winning literally everything until March 4 - Louisiana, Nebraska,
Washington, Maine, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin - and
the Clintons claiming Texas and Ohio are the real decision-making
states."
Dick Morris also believes that Obama will take all those states. He
believes that Hillary's only strenth is in the Northeast coastal
states and California. Hillary only carried Arkansas and its two
border states Oklahoma and Tennesee as far as flyover country
goes.
I have my concerns about Texas because of the large Hispanic vote
that will probably go mostly for Hillary.
|2.6.08 @ 1:00PM|#
Obama should also be concerned about Ohio due to the fact that
working class white people tend to favor her.
I expect Obama to do some shameless pandering to protectionists to
try to remedy that, though.
|2.6.08 @ 1:06PM|#
Joe, if Hillary wins the nomination by getting the MI and FL delegates seated, could you honestly vote for her in good come November?
|2.6.08 @ 1:51PM|#
"If she fails, the bitterness her attempt will create should
drive extra nails into the Clinton coffin - nails I suspect will be
needed before the Clintons shuffle off thhis mortal coil."
Before driving the nails, for extra insurance, we need to drive
stakes in their hearts.
|2.6.08 @ 2:05PM|#
What I'm saying is, Obama has a chance to pick up enough
momentum that he won't win by small margins in the second half of
the race, but by big enough margins to score serious delegate
advantages.
Yes among socialist voters (intellectual brothers to fascists I
might add) a socialist who is a proven liar and crook will lose to
someone who is simply a socialist.
How is this even news?
|2.6.08 @ 2:23PM|#
Cesar,
The other choices being McCain or Romney? Yeah, I could see myself
voting for Hillary in that scenario. McCain looks at Iran and
thinks "pincer movement," and Romney is a genuinely loathsome
person whose ideas about executive power would make Hillary Clinton
seem like the Dodd.
|2.6.08 @ 2:24PM|#
Oh, goodie, another thread elevated by joshua corning's
presence.
Thank you, that was...er...special.
|2.6.08 @ 2:35PM|#
So you would vote for someone who would shamlessly steal your party's nomination?
|2.6.08 @ 2:36PM|#
RC do you think it will be Bill or Hillary that attacks
Obama?
They've usually gotten surrogates to do it. Remember all that
"Obama is a Muslim coke dealer" spam?
Obama should also be concerned about Ohio due to the fact that
working class white people tend to favor her.
Obama has been beating Hillary for the white male vote, and I think
they were essentially tied for the white vote overall. Hillary's
rock-solid ethnic support these days comes from Asians and
Hispanics.
Weird, huh?
|2.6.08 @ 3:06PM|#
I'd hold my nose, Cesar.
It beats 100 more years in Iraq, and Iran to boot.
You don't seriously think this process is about picking moral
exemplars, do you?
And no, however creatively you choose to phrase your description of
Clinton's theoretical efforts to swing the nomination with those
delegates, it's not going to influence my thinking. You could have
just said "do that" and I would have written the same response. Or
at a minimum, you could have thrown in a couple of gratuitous uses
of the words "socialist" and "fascist." That seems to be popular
these days.
|2.6.08 @ 9:18PM|#
I'm not going to call Hillary a Fascist or Socialist. But if she wins the nomination of your party by seating disqualified delegates, I am going to call her an election thief. In that case its not hyperbole, its just the truth.
|2.7.08 @ 12:12PM|#
Since the party convention, and not Hillary Clinton, is in charge of seating delegates, than any decision about whether to do so cannot by definition be stealing an election.
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