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Super Tuesday V: California and the rest of them
California closed at 11 p.m., and as projected, there's no winner in either primary yet. Alaska closes in two and a half hours, the rest of the caucuses are trickling in, so you can discuss them here. If the "Obama and Romney win all caucuses" pattern persists, Obama and Romney will win.
The network coverage of this has been pretty inscrutable: We are told that delegate-rich states in the northeast are big wins for Clinton even though every Democratic state will award its delegates proportionately. Similarly, we're watching Mitt Romney get his head handed to him when his best states (except Massachusetts) are simply coming a little later and he's in competition for California. I think newspapers, with their longer lead times and without the rush to get on air and start sharing opinions, are going to report a Democratic split (Obama is winning more states than Clinton, she's won the big ones) and a three-way Republican race with Romney mulling his next move and Huckabee blowing his trumpet.
Eric Dondero|2.5.08 @ 11:59PM|#
Mitt Romney has swept the West and Northwest.
He has won North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado and
Utah.
The ruggest individualist West has gone solidly for Romney.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 12:01AM|#
I will admit something tonight. And if any of you all ever say I
said this, I'll call you a damn liar.
Ron Paul did pretty well in Montana, and decently in North Dakota.
24% in MT & 15% in ND. He even beat McCain in MT.
That's probably a good sign for him in Alaska. I won't be shocked
if he wins AK.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 12:02AM|#
I wanna know, what happened to Ron Paul in Alabama?
That's Lew Rockwell's home state. You've got the Mises Inst. there,
and all of Rockwell's NeoConfederate followers.
And Paul ended up with a measly 3% in AL. Can someone explain
this?
Click \'n\' Learn|2.6.08 @ 12:02AM|#
As goes Alaska, so goes the Yukon!
If Ron Paul voters decide they really want to win, they can do it
by showing how RP's competitors aren't qualified. For instance, if
someone ever really presses McCain on this, he's not going
to have much of a career left.
Who I voted for here. I hope
that will prevent Her from putting me on a list or something.
|2.6.08 @ 12:02AM|#
Wow, Clinton's just stomping Obama so far in California. I
thought he was supposed to have come very close to catching up
there.
Both the dem and rep races are within ~4,000 votes as the final
reports come in.
|2.6.08 @ 12:02AM|#
And if any of you all ever say I said this, I'll call you a damn liar.
Sarcasm? Lunacy? Text is a poor medium.
|2.6.08 @ 12:05AM|#
"Both the dem and rep races are within ~4,000 votes as the final
reports come in."
...in Missouri. Forgot an important detail....
|2.6.08 @ 12:05AM|#
What the hell do people see in Clinton, anyway?
Seriously, somebody freakin' explain it to me!
|2.6.08 @ 12:07AM|#
Tritone-
A last name, and a wife of a former President. That says a lot
about Democratic voters, doesn't it?
Sandra|2.6.08 @ 12:08AM|#
Those racist newsletters Lew Rockwell wrote didn't scare up a
lot of voters, I guess.
Ron's still my guy, but, please, no more Lew Rockwell. Someone
should put a cover over his cage.
Rhywun|2.6.08 @ 12:08AM|#
What the hell do people see in Clinton, anyway?
Looking at the votes by county, I would say for a lot of voters
it's that she's not half-black.
|2.6.08 @ 12:10AM|#
That big clump of votes from St Louis County just closed the gap to a fraction of a percent. With St Louis (the city) and Boone still to come, there's a real chance Obama could take Mizzou outright. (Which probably will mean jack all in the actual delegate count.)
|2.6.08 @ 12:11AM|#
Mitt Romney has swept the West and Northwest.
He has won North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado and
Utah.
Before you give him the West, let's wait on California's
results.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:12AM|#
Paul solid second in MT. Rugged individualism is still alive in the west. Regardless of this, MT is my single most favorite state in Union!
|2.6.08 @ 12:13AM|#
California called for Clinton by MSNBC. She can spin this as "her night" now. I guess the crying worked.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:13AM|#
Before you give him the West, let's wait on California's
results.
CA is in the West? (Shhhh, don't tell Dondero.)
|2.6.08 @ 12:13AM|#
Ali - go spend a week in Glacier National Park. You'll spend a lot of time afterward thinking about moving to Montana.
|2.6.08 @ 12:14AM|#
Paul is doing very well in most of the states Romney is winning
(with the exception of Utah, which is, predictably, an enormous
blowout for Romney).
Assuming Romney is willing to keep dumping millions into this
campaign (and assuming his wife is a good Mormon wife and sucks it
up as her kid's inheritance gets spent), the Republican race could
go all the way to the convention, since the Huckster's got the
South, Romney's got the Mountain West and many of the northern
states, and McCain's got everything else.
Basically, Paul appears to be siphoning off votes from McCain, and
Huckabee is siphoning off votes from Romney (or vice-versa).
|2.6.08 @ 12:16AM|#
For my money, Wyoming is more beautiful than Montana. Utah is beautiful, too. The West is really where it's at.
Nephilium|2.6.08 @ 12:17AM|#
Warty:
Do you think Ali could become a dental floss tycoon?
Nephilium...
|2.6.08 @ 12:19AM|#
Oh? I've been looking at the NYTimes numbers all night; and it just bumped Obama into the lead too, with a big chunk of the Boone votes coming in.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:19AM|#
Smappy, Warty- And here I am in the bluest of bluest states. Grrrr... and NH ain't that individualist anymore.
|2.6.08 @ 12:20AM|#
MSNBC calls CA for McCain.
Romney is as dead as his dad.
Like I posted on another thread (before the results came in) Romney
never had any chance of winning CA. The GOP race is over McCain
will be the nominee.
|2.6.08 @ 12:21AM|#
Which state, Ali? I'm kicking it in Kansas. A lot of grandeur here, let me tell you.
Vasili Borodin|2.6.08 @ 12:21AM|#
MT is my single most favorite state in Union!
One day I will live in Montana. I will marry a round American woman
and raise rabbits, and she will cook them for me. And I will have a
pickup truck... maybe even a recreational vehicle. And drive from
state to state.
Jiang|2.6.08 @ 12:22AM|#
lol, the only thing NObama can do is pulling the RACE card!! WHAT A SHAME!!!!
|2.6.08 @ 12:23AM|#
Jiang, no politician ever had Obama's level of success just by pulling the race card.
|2.6.08 @ 12:23AM|#
St. Louis rules! Go Cards!
Obama wins the pennant! Obama wins the pennant! Obama wins the
pennant!
|2.6.08 @ 12:23AM|#
"One ping more, Vasili."
And five minutes after that heart-warming little speech... he gets
blown away. Sniff.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:25AM|#
TWC-
I can only imagine the outrage if Elfman and the gang made that
song and video now.
Although Britney pretty much did about almost a decade ago.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:28AM|#
Smappy- Close, but not quite. (I forgive VT for its blueishness- the state with the least gun control regulations).
|2.6.08 @ 12:30AM|#
I thought that there was only one bluest of blue states...
like 100% blue?
Jersey? Rhode Island? Hawaii?
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:30AM|#
Um, "Frank Discussions" for the Romney Campaign.
and quit calling him Shirley
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:33AM|#
Nah, MA has some redneck counties, right?
And that makes it any better at rugged individualism?
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:35AM|#
Man, a Huck win in MO would have the potential to blow this
thing wide open again.
As it is the win by Mac and the crushing of Mitt in CA pretty much
makes the Strait Talk Express a non-stop to St Paul.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:36AM|#
As it is the win by Mac and the crushing of Mitt in CA
pretty much makes the Strait Talk Express a non-stop to St
Paul.
With us crushed underneath.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:40AM|#
On the Dem side I think it's still up for grabs.
Does anyone know if the CA rules and/or vote distro help even up
the delegate count from the 55-33 split? or will the lopsided
victory cause superdelegates to overwhelm the proportional
representation aspects?
|2.6.08 @ 12:42AM|#
I don't think there are any redneck counties. Maybe a few redneck towns out in Western Mass though. Athol and Belchertown come to mind. Haven't lived there though in 16 years so maybe it's all changed.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 12:44AM|#
Matthew- I drove through it many times, but nothing is peculiarly redneckish about it.
The Wine Commonsewer|2.6.08 @ 12:48AM|#
Ca is a winner-take-all state.
And yes on the Elfman song. :-)
|2.6.08 @ 12:49AM|#
On the Dem side I think it's still up for grabs.
Would be ironic, after all those states (see California, etc.)
moved their primaries up so early, to end up having the Democratic
nominee decided by Oregon's May 20 primary.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:52AM|#
Goatee dude is saying that Clinton CA win will get her between
24 to 44 more delgates
But the split for the night nationwide is a wash
|2.6.08 @ 12:55AM|#
From
The Washington Post
The California Democratic Party issued a helpful, if mind-boggling, explanation of how delegates will be awarded. Twenty-six of the state's 53 congressional districts will award four delegates. To do better than a two-two split, the "winning" candidate will need more than 62.5 percent of the vote in that district.
The thresholds for gaining a significant advantage are similarly high in districts with six delegates or those rare districts with eight delegates. That's why both campaigns say neither candidate is likely to emerge from Tuesday's voting with a huge lead in delegates.
|2.6.08 @ 12:56AM|#
Well, it looks like Hillary got California... Which means it will be 4 more years of Republicans in the White House.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 12:58AM|#
Goatee dude on MSNBC also said his estimate for the final tally for the night was Obama 84-something, Clinton 83-something, but +/- 10 delegates as probable error tolerance band.
Tom Walls|2.6.08 @ 1:02AM|#
Ali, like Rudy, those Edwards votes were probably absentees that
were already sent in.
Then again, seniors make up a large contingent of voters.
|2.6.08 @ 1:04AM|#
Ali,
Lucky you. I had beer cans thrown at me when I rode my bike through
Athol, c. 1986
/good times, though. Good Times.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 1:05AM|#
Is the AK count due to some precinct/caucus anomaly or are there literally less than 500 democrats in Alaska?
Ali|2.6.08 @ 1:05AM|#
Tom- Oh OK, that may explain it.
But the question is, what do they do with the Edwards votes if it
proportional representation in democratic CA primary? If Edwards
endorses one of the other two, do his votes go to that
candidate?
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 1:09AM|#
Ali-
It seems that unless you get more than about 25-30% in a district,
you're not going to get any delegates. So with an average of 10%,
even a bunch of 20% districts won't give Edwards any delegates
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 1:15AM|#
Looking ahead over the next week, it seems the dem
contests:
LA primary, Nebraska & Washington state caucus on Sat, Maine
caucus on Sun, Chesapeke primaries on tues
all seem on the surface to favor Obama.
|2.6.08 @ 1:19AM|#
I have to ask (maybe I will regret this): why does everybody
give HRC so much shit for crying a couple of times? Sure, maybe she
was doing the politician's crocodile tears act one time for
attention, and of course that's reprehensible, but the last time I
heard the most recent story about her crying, I could see how it
very likely could have been genuine. Maybe she's just an emotional
person. So why crucify her on this matter? Women cry, and banning
the ability to cry is an insurmountable hurdle that most women
wouldn't be able to pass...does this mean we will never see a woman
president? (Hillary Clinton is a woman by most accounts,
right?)
I had an article about this topic -- it's bookmarked on my other
computer. Maybe I'll post it later.
Ali|2.6.08 @ 1:22AM|#
(Hillary Clinton is a woman by most accounts,
right?)
I, personally, am not sure.
Jumbie|2.6.08 @ 1:27AM|#
All I want to know is when Dondero is gonna be along to give us his all important McCain endorsement now that he's lost Mitt...
|2.6.08 @ 1:32AM|#
smacky,
I haven't heard a tape of her most recent crying, but the first one
right before the New Hampshire primary sounded completely fake to
me. Reasonable people can certainly disagree on that, and my take
might reflect my personal bias against her more than anything, but
I thought she was making a transparent and insincere attempt to
play on people's sympathies. Maybe the second one sounded more
sincere, although I'm skeptical that I would hear it that
way.
FWIW, I never got the impression that she's a particularly
emotional person; for my money, calculating is a much more accurate
word. Also FWIW, I wouldn't condemn a woman (or man, for that
matter) for crying under certain circumstances, but I would have to
feel that it was honest and a reasonable emotional response given
those circumstances.
In case you couldn't tell, I'm not a huge fan of Clinton....
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 1:33AM|#
Jesus, how are Alaskan republicans delivering their results, by
dogsled?
Dammit I want my instant gratification, and I want it now!
|2.6.08 @ 1:34AM|#
I will say that if she cries again I'll be more willing to believe that it's sincere, because I think it would be a bad political calculation. You can only go to that well so many times before the perception changes from sympathetic to unstable and unprepared for the stress of being prez.
|2.6.08 @ 1:35AM|#
I have to ask (maybe I will regret this): why does everybody give HRC so much shit for crying a couple of times?
It isn't that she cried... it is why she cried. She didn't cry at
some childs's funeral, or because she was moved to tears by the "I
have a dream" speech. She cried because running in the Democratic
primary is tough... boo hoo.
If Obama or McCain cried because the press wasn't being obnoxiously
obsequious, they would have been called out even harder than
Clinton was. If anything, Clinton got off easy.
|2.6.08 @ 1:37AM|#
"Jesus, how are Alaskan republicans delivering their results, by
dogsled?"
They're trying, but there's not enough snow. Damn you, global
warming!!
|2.6.08 @ 1:37AM|#
I, personally, am not sure.
Oh please, I know it's late there, but come on. I don't even know
exactly how to interpret that, but anyway I can think of seems like
a sexist cheap-shot. I think there is plenty to criticize Clinton
about without resorting to gender-related stuff which is really
wearing thin.
The Wine Commonsewer|2.6.08 @ 1:41AM|#
Smack, it isn't St Hillary's tears, it's the Highway Fakery. That's a ticket in my book.
|2.6.08 @ 1:42AM|#
http://newsminer.com/weblogs/election-2008/2008/feb/05/big-voter-turnout-in-fairbanks-gop-race/
Big independent turnout in Alaska on the Republican side.
|2.6.08 @ 1:46AM|#
http://newsminer.com/weblogs/election-2008/2008/feb/05/alaskans-prefer-romney-maybe/
Eh, I don't know many Paul supporters that don't want to talk to
reporters. Doesn't look good for Paul.
|2.6.08 @ 1:52AM|#
Sparky and Rex Rhino and TWC, (& others),
I agree that the tears before the NH primary seemed calculated and
insincere (crocodile tears). But then I read a story the other day
about how she cried when one of her mentors growing up introduced
her at some conference, and had a lot of kind things to say about
her, and she teared up then, too...and that seemed to me to be
genuine under the circumstances. I don't see a problem with being
emotional per se, as long as it's sentimentality we're talking
about, and not some kind of trigger-finger mentality.
Kolohe|2.6.08 @ 2:10AM|#
Finally some AK returns on the CNN website
28 % reporting:
Romney 1,200 41%
Huckabee 634 22%
McCain 539 19%
Paul 466 16%
Uncommitted 72 2%
so not looking good for Paul so far
Tom Walls|2.6.08 @ 2:10AM|#
Current Alaska headlines (I am not making this up):
Alaskans battle crowds, bone-chilling temperatures to vote
Hayes takes stand, rejects notions of theft
Jury finds man guilty of sex and drugs
Forecasters predict cold start for Yukon Quest
Family dog saves pregnant woman from mad moose
Stay warm, burn wood
Fairbanks residents envision a solar-powered lifestyle
Tom Walls|2.6.08 @ 2:11AM|#
Oh, and libertarian-Republican legislator Vic Kohring is in trouble and on trial for allegedly taking oil bribes.
|2.6.08 @ 2:14AM|#
smacky,
I have to confess I didn't know any details about the second cry; I
just heard that it had happened at a campaign event and assumed it
was sketchy because the first one seemed so blatant. I agree that
those circumstances seem more genuine, although I'll still reserve
judgment until I see or hear it. I don't like to think anything
positive about Clinton unless I absolutely have to.... :)
|2.6.08 @ 2:16AM|#
"Looks like Romney may win Alaska."
The porn star mustachioed groundhog saw his shadow. That means six
more weeks of Romney/Paul wankery from Dondero here....
|2.6.08 @ 4:43AM|#
So it is gonna be Obama vs McCain?. According to yahoo.
Paul showed lower than expected, even in AK.
I'm glad Hillary lost, at least.
|2.6.08 @ 5:37AM|#
Oh crap I was wrong, guess I should have hit refresh on the
site.
It looks like Clinton and McCain is it.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 7:23AM|#
Good morning Gents. I believe apologies are in order.
MITT ROMNEY WINS ALASKA!!!!!!!
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 7:25AM|#
I admit, Ron Paul did okay in some Western States, especially
Montana and North Dakota. But he finished a somewhat dissapointing
third in Alaska behind Huckabee.
And 2% in Utah? What's up with that? That used to be a very strong
Libertarian State. Paul should have done much better in Utah.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 7:26AM|#
Yup, lots of Romney wankery from me for the coming weeks. I
deserve to gloat. All you Reason-oids were giving me shit early in
the night about Romney's "loss" in W. Virginia - which really
wasn't a loss. You all couldn't stay up to watch the Western
returns.
Romney swept the entire Northwest: All 6 States.
Eric Dondero|2.6.08 @ 7:29AM|#
Perhaps we can all come together now behind the Libertarian
Party nominee. If McCain is the GOP choice, I'm not voting for him.
Only if he pickes Sarah Palin as his VP. And even then I'll be
pulling the lever for Palin, not for McCain.
Wayne Root is a unifying candidate. He should be the Libertarian
Party choice. If he is, he'll win tons of libertarian Republican
votes.
But Bob Barr would be great too. And Gary Johnson would be
fantastic!
C'mon Libertarian Party. Don't nominate a Losertarian like Kubby or
Phillies. Give us someone with some credibility that we can vote
for in November!!
|2.6.08 @ 8:21AM|#
Dondero, you are aware that Romney lost aren't you?
That the apparent nominee is McCain?
And that it doesn't matter who you get behind in the libertarian
party because you are no more libertarian than Hillary?
|2.6.08 @ 8:32AM|#
Dondero,
I haven't seen the percentage totals, but what is the best state
percentage that Guliani did, compared to the best state percentage
that Paul did?
How about vote totals?
So, uh Romney wont Utah huh?
Vermont Gun Owner|2.6.08 @ 8:37AM|#
And 2% in Utah? What's up with that? That used to be a very
strong Libertarian State. Paul should have done much better in
Utah.
Okay, now this may have to be the dumbest thing Dondero
has ever said.
alisa|2.6.08 @ 8:50AM|#
Ron Paul pulled 21% in ND, and I didn't think he'd break 10 in
any of these states. Pretty impressive.
By the way, should we basically think of this as a Clinton win, or
does Obama still have a shot? NYT and CNN spin it as "no clear
victory," but the press consistently favors him. Do you think he'd
have a chance in Ohio or Pennsylvania? Is Texas out of the
question?
Seems to me he does nicely in northern rural states (Idaho,
Minnesota, North Dakota, others) and of course the south, but badly
in high-population states. And I don't know how a guy who's not
vehemently populist could win in the Rust Belt.
|2.6.08 @ 9:04AM|#
Congratulations to Christine Smith, who won California's Libertarian Presidential primary!
|2.6.08 @ 9:09AM|#
I'm starting to think that the Free State Project people had it right when they reached the conclusion that we had to concentrate forces to win anything. Perhaps they were too ambitious in picking New Hampshire which is too large. Maybe Nevada? Or Hawaii? Looking at the Ron Paul donation and voting data might be the best clue.
|2.6.08 @ 10:03AM|#
alisa,
Last night was basically a tie. The mighty Hillary Machine couldn't
put Obama away, and the Obama Momentum couldn't swamp
Hillary.
Now, looking forward, we see a stretch of contests Obama should
win, to put himself in the lead in the delegate count by a
non-trivial number. We're also faced with an unthinkable situation:
somebody with a major financial advantage over the Clintons. He
raised a lot more money this winter, and did it in much smaller
amounts, meaning more of his donors can give again.
|2.6.08 @ 10:14AM|#
My dad, who's a Pat Buchanan Republican, says he's now going to take a Democratic Ohio primary ballot so he can vote for Obama against Clinton. He's serious. This is going to be a screwy election.
|2.6.08 @ 10:27AM|#
It must be strange for voters in states like Ohio, Texas, Washington, and Pennsylvania, whose primaries have never mattered before.
|2.6.08 @ 10:28AM|#
Joe stole my comment, so I'll just second him. Super Tuesday was
a tie for the Dems, with Obama looking pretty good for the next few
weeks.
I would posit to any atheists on this thread that Giuliani going
out with a whimper, not a bang, is evidence of a benevolent God. If
Clinton goes down too, you don't have a leg to stand on.
|2.6.08 @ 10:48AM|#
I can think of two beneficial outcomes to an Obama
nomination:
(1) We can be pretty safe in putting the Clinton Machine into the
dustbin of history. I can't imagine Hillary ever having a better
chance than this, and Bill has been discredited in the eyes of many
by his bare-knuckle shenanigans in recent weeks.
(2) An actual black nominee should put a serious crimp in the
"America is a racist nation" crowd. A black President, even
moreso.
|2.6.08 @ 10:52AM|#
If Obama gets the nomination, I'll vote for him this fall. If
it's Hillary (shudder), I'll vote for the Libertarian
candidate.
Does Dondero wear a toupee? It looks like a toupee.
|2.6.08 @ 10:52AM|#
Andy,
You should free state NV, free state NV. See if you can offset all
the damned CA immigrants.
That would be cool, I would like to come home to a free state.
|2.6.08 @ 11:23AM|#
An actual black nominee should put a serious crimp in the
"America is a racist nation" crowd. A black President, even
moreso.
Maybe. But those in the hard core will point out that Obama has a
white mother and he's not descended from American slaves.
|2.6.08 @ 12:21PM|#
There is more than one "America is a racist nation" crowd,
RC.
An Obama presidency would put a nice-sized dent in all of
them.
There are all kinds of changes that having a black president would
produce in our culture. People would look at each other
differently, and in a good way. I don't think we can predict very
accurately what these changes would be, but I sure hope we get to
find out.
But those in the hard core will point out that Obama has a
white mother and he's not descended from American
slaves.
You mean like Christopher Hitchens and a slew of National Review
writers have done recently? I don't think the racial "issues" this
nation deals with operate quite the way you two seem to be
implying.
alisa|2.6.08 @ 12:49PM|#
Good point about Obama's financial advantage - money still
matters.
Race, by the way, sends a message to foreigners as well. I don't
know how much it matters; in the end, I'm sure policy speaks
louder. But our last two secretaries of state have been black,
which suggests a serious belief by some in government that it's
best to present a non-white face to a mostly non-white world.
|2.6.08 @ 2:39PM|#
There is more than one "America is a racist nation" crowd,
RC.
An Obama presidency would put a nice-sized dent in all of
them.
I'll count that as an Agreement with R.C.
Brandybuck|2.6.08 @ 3:23PM|#
Good morning Gents. I believe apologies are in order.
Whatever for? Eric, have you been sniffing the Dry-Eraze™ markers
again?
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