Your McCain's Tears Are So Yummy and Sweet

David Weigel | January 18, 2007

Yesterday it was Hillary Clinton; today it's John McCain watching his polls go the way of Ernest Shackleton.*

For seven years, conventional wisdom has said that the state’s pivotal independent voters would line up behind maverick Sen. John McCain, as they did so famously in the 2000 GOP primary. But new polling data, to be released later this week, will suggest that might no longer be the case.

Manchester, N.H.-based American Research Group finds that McCain’s popularity among New Hampshire’s independent voters has collapsed.

“John McCain is tanking,” says ARG president Dick Bennett. “That’s the big thing [we’re finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.”

The frontrunner's melting down in other primary states too, and the pollsters know why: "His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president." That could help him with Republican base voters, but it's weakening him with the swing voters who decide things in New Hampshire and weakening him with the general electorate.

McCain's basically doubled down on the Iraq War, cognizant that the media will congratulate his courage unless something goes terribly wrong. But what are the odds of that happening in Iraq? Note also that McCain has fudged the number of brigades he said would be "essential" for saving Iraq, laying the groundwork for criticizing how the Bush administration wrecked his foolproof surge plan.

*"South," obviously.

Comments

|1.18.07 @ 9:57AM|#

is the title of this one a south park reference? specically the messed up ending to the "scott tennerman must die" episode...

Bhh|1.18.07 @ 10:03AM|#

McCain's pitiful wooing of Mullah Dobson, who has made it clear that he is not into him, almost makes me feel sorry for him. That sort of thing probably doesn't help.

|1.18.07 @ 10:06AM|#

Mullah Dobson

I love the, unfortunately, apt characterization.

|1.18.07 @ 10:09AM|#

I thought Cliton and McCain were the same person.

Warren|1.18.07 @ 10:09AM|#

So what now? Obama and Giuliani?

jhupp|1.18.07 @ 10:10AM|#

Yes, but in Shackleton's case, his entire party survived and returned north. Can the same be said of the McCain campaign?

Christopher Monnier|1.18.07 @ 10:12AM|#

Maverick.

ed|1.18.07 @ 10:32AM|#

It's Bob Dole's turn!

|1.18.07 @ 10:39AM|#

I predict a third party run by a conservative candidate appealing to whichever faction of the GOP (hawk or dove) doesn't get the GOP nomination.

Charlie|1.18.07 @ 11:13AM|#

The war has killed McCain's chances.

|1.18.07 @ 11:21AM|#

I knew it wouldn't be Hillary. It's not that Democrats don't liker her, it's just that they don't want her to be nominated for president.

I thought it would be McCain, though, because Republicans always go for the guy whose turn has come up.

This Iraq thing is messing everything up.

|1.18.07 @ 11:35AM|#

Aren't there any pix of McCain's kids or grandkids crying that we could put up there?

|1.18.07 @ 12:05PM|#

Aren't there any pix of McCain's kids or grandkids crying that we could put up there?

Good lord - not again!

|1.18.07 @ 12:13PM|#

This Iraq thing is messing everything up.

This American thing is messing everything up.

:-|1.18.07 @ 1:23PM|#

I knew it wouldn't be Hillary.

It isn't anyone, yet.
Jesus H., the Democrat National Convention isn't for another 19 months!

|1.18.07 @ 5:57PM|#

Coming out of right field to win the Republican nomination for president will be Mike Huckabee. He's not on the radar now, but he's the best candidate for the GOP, as the front runners all have major negatives that will put them in the tank with McCain.

|1.19.07 @ 7:54AM|#

That is one creepy picture. McCain looks he just had a stoke and is clutching at Bush to keep from falling.

|1.19.07 @ 7:58AM|#

Isn't Mike Huckaby the ex fat guy from Arkansas. There is no way America is gonna vote for a guy with a name like Huckaby. It sounds like Huckleberry Hound. Nobody will want to be his VP because they won't want to be called his deputy dog.