Election Futures Update

Radley Balko | November 7, 2006

Slate's tracking how the futures trading sites are handicapping tonight's results.

TradeSports is producing some interesting results right now.  The site is predicting Democratic victories in Montana, Missouri, Virginia, Rhode Island, New Jersey, an Maryland.  Tennessee is the only close seat bettors are giving to the GOP.

Along with the expected Democratic pickups in Pennsylvania and Ohio, by my count that gives the Democrats control of the Senate, 51-49.  But TradeSports Senate contracts are still favoring the GOP to retain control.

Maybe they think Joe Lieberman will switch parties.

Comments

|11.7.06 @ 2:01PM|#

Dems will win OH, PA and RI.

Then one of three: MT, MO or VA.

Funny how the stats work out here. When you look at either MT or MO alone, Dems have a narrow lead over the GOP. Yet, it just doesn't feel like they could win both at the same time.

Throw the slightly less likely VA into the mix, and still it looks like only one of three.

I am, however, predicting they will defend all the seats they currently hold in the Senate, with MD being the closest.

|11.7.06 @ 2:07PM|#

TS has Dems winning 65% chance, 60%, 70%, 75%, and 65% in 5 of those seats (including MD Senate, which isn't on their list). The closest R call is 85-15 R. If the election results are independent across states (they aren't, but work with me), the Dems would be expected to lose 1.5-2 of the net 5 seats picked in their direction. That is enough to push the Senate control to the Republicans. The numbers are completely reasonable.

Essentially, the numbers are saying: 'Roll one die, five times. If it comes up 1,2,3, or 4 every time, you win. If it comes up 5 or 6, in any one of those five, you draw. if it comes up 5 or 6 twice, you lose.' Even though you are 'favored' in each roll, you still can't expect to win 'em all.

|11.7.06 @ 2:09PM|#

I noticed that last night that TS was, if you look at the state by state races, predicting 49-49-2 (essentially 51-49) but the Senate control contract was still favoring the Republicans. But, that isn't as strange as it looks and doesn't require anyone to think Lieberman would vote with the GOP - the issues is that the Dems have to sweep the most contested races to get control.

An example illustrates the point: Assume there are three races in which you think the Democrat candidate has a 70% chance of winning - but the Dems must win all three to get control. In that case, you expect each individual contract to favor the Democrat candidate but the odds of the Dems getting control (in my contrived example) is only .7^3 = 34.3%, so the contract for control would still favor the Republicans.

|11.7.06 @ 2:10PM|#

Hate it when that happens :) rvman beat me to the point while I was typing.

Robert|11.7.06 @ 3:50PM|#

I find the Lieberman situation very interesting. Assuming his poor ballot placement doesn't cause him to lose (which would be very interesting too), what will the senate Democrats be saying to the Democratic Party of Conn. if the senate Dems consider him one of their own?

Presumably back in Conn., Lieberman will walk away from Connecticut For Lieberman; can and will they change their name? Lowell Weicker didn't abandon A Connecticut Party.

|11.7.06 @ 4:11PM|#

Lieberman won't vote for Bill Frist.

But if his is the vote that would get the Democrats 51, I predict he votes for himself instead.

He'll only vote for Reid if his vote is irrelevant to the outcome.

|11.7.06 @ 4:45PM|#

I think Frist retired. Lieberman might vote for a moderate GOP leader.

|11.7.06 @ 4:48PM|#

Lieberman probably won't be voting for Mitch McConnell though.

|11.7.06 @ 5:08PM|#

Lieberman is going back to the Dems after he wins this election. Put aside his views on the Iraq war and a few other things (affirmative action, Hollywood, etc.) and his views pretty much are in line with most other Senate Dems.

Besides, the other Senate Dems weren't that enthusiastic about their "support" for Lamont. Put yourselves in their shoes: You either support a candidate your party in a state voted for (Lamont) or you support a candidate the party in your state voted against (Lieberman). They really didn't have much choice, and I think Lieberman will return to their ranks.

|11.7.06 @ 5:47PM|#

panurge hits it on the head. Whatever the "grassroots" Democrats think about Lieberman, in the Senate he's "one of their own", and will have no trouble being welcomed into the Democratic caucuses with open arms.

Too bad for the Kossack fringe, who will probably spend a few days whining about how Lieberman should be excommunicated.