Virginia is For Explict Sex Scene Lovers

David Weigel | October 31, 2006

New polls out of Virginia toss some doubt on Sen. George Allen's "I never learnt no book readin'" campaign.

Among likely voters surveyed, 50 percent favored Webb, a former Republican who served as Navy secretary in the Reagan administration, while 46 percent favored Allen, and 4 percent were undecided.

Webb's edge is equal to the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning he can be considered slightly ahead. The result is based on telephone interviews conducted for CNN from Oct. 26-29 among 597 registered Virginia voters who said they were likely to vote.

A Rasmussen poll shows Webb (pictured right, looking like Christopher Walken on the Matt Furey program) picking up the lead, too. And that represents a boost for him since Allen attacked Webb's novels. According to the awesome RealClearPolitics polling pages, Webb now holds a miniscule 2.2 point lead over Allen. In the last day, Webb futures on TradeSports have surged more than 20 points - now most traders are expecting him to pull off the upset.

This is all starting to shake out like the last election in Virginia, which pitted center-left (I'm referring to his politics and his eyebrow placement) Democrat Tim Kaine against Republican Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore had won the state's attorney general's office in a 20-point landslide in 2001, and everyone expected him to cruise into the governor's office. Indeed, he led Kaine for most of the year. But when Kaine started to catch up in September, Kilgore launched a series of attack ads impugning him for not favoring the death penalty. Murdered Virginians' families sat in dark rooms and wept about Kaine's complicity in their loss. One even said Kaine wouldn't give the death penalty to Hitler. It backfired badly, and Kilgore never regained his footing.

For some analysis of attack ads done right, check out David Mark's November cover story.

Comments

ChrisO|10.31.06 @ 11:25AM|#

Be nice if there was a Libertarian running in this race. I don't want to vote for either of these guys or the Green Party candidate, for that matter.

As Northern Virginia's population expands at a faster rate than the rest of the state, Va. becomes politically more like Maryland and less like Tennessee.

|10.31.06 @ 11:30AM|#

One even said Kaine wouldn't give the death penalty to Hitler.

Really? Someone actually used that in a campaign ad? Anyone does that deserves to lose.

There are some truly remarkable, and in some cases outrageously funny, ads out this year.

What's most interesting to me is how hard it is to figure out which ones will backfire.

|10.31.06 @ 11:54AM|#

I don't think Virginia could ever become as politically liberal as Maryland.

I think part of Allen's problem with the race is that the more attention drawn to it, the clearer it becomes that Allen is a lightweight compared to Webb.

|10.31.06 @ 11:57AM|#

"I don't think Virginia could ever become as politically liberal as Maryland."

Though I guess that's not what you wrote, or suggested.

Bruce Dickinson|10.31.06 @ 12:04PM|#

I got a fever, and the only prescription is more carpet-humping.

|10.31.06 @ 12:19PM|#

Don't joke about that. There are three election ads on this page, and that means that the carpet humper, RPG, and who knows what else could be back in a week.

|10.31.06 @ 12:35PM|#

The handful of people I know in Virginia are pretty bright, well-educated folks who happen to be ex-navy. I can magine there's a lot of folks there fitting that description.

I'm not saying they like Webb - I don't know. But I'm pretty sure the more Allen opens his mouth, the more Webb starts looking pretty good.

|10.31.06 @ 12:54PM|#

I'm not saying they like Webb - I don't know. But I'm pretty sure the more Allen opens his mouth, the more Webb starts looking pretty good.

That's pretty much the feeling I get here in Arlington (Northern Va), but Arlington is a very poor representation of the rest of Va. Some of my family in the Shenandoah Valley (2 hours west of Arlington) were strong Allen supporters early in this race, but I think even rural voters are starting to get annoyed with him. I personally can't stand the guy. He's a spoiled SoCal fratboy who thought it would be fun to play Po' White Suthner for a few years. The funny thing is that his Robert E. Lee impression comes accross as an angry Forrest Gump impression.

|10.31.06 @ 1:14PM|#

In my local paper last week they had a poll stating support for the Marriage Amendment has dropped to 52%. I wonder if it is correlation or causation between that and Webb's numbers going up.

Getting the Marriage Amendment on the ballot just to have it backfire for Allen would be rich. If that were the reason, for the first time in a long time, I would be proud of the electorate.

ChrisO|10.31.06 @ 1:16PM|#

"I don't think Virginia could ever become as politically liberal as Maryland."

Though I guess that's not what you wrote, or suggested.

No, I doubt Va. will go as far as left as Maryland in our lifetimes, but that's the trend.

However, it's worth noting that rural Maryland is quite conservative. Baltimore City, PG County and Montgomery County are the only majority Democratic parts of the state. Of course, that's where a large majority of the populace lives.

Va. sucks so much off of the federal teat that I don't see much libertarianism around here. Big-government conservatism is the prevailing mode of thought, what with DOD and defense contractors being the biggest employers.

|10.31.06 @ 1:33PM|#

i live in hampton, va. and i was not going to vote until i stasrted reading stuff describing webb as a libertarian democrat but i've seen ads endorsed by webb saying he's going to protect kids from violent video games. how's THAT libertarian? that sounds like tipper gore stuff to me.

|10.31.06 @ 2:22PM|#

Allen is such a dirtbag, I'm actually breaking ranks here and voting for Webb. I get teary-eyed just dreaming about seeing sorry-assed red-faced chubster Allen get his entitled ass handed to him in this steadfastly republican state.

The most hilarious thing I've heard lately is that Allen, of all people, is trying to distance himself from Bush. Sorry, motherfucker, you've been tea-bagging that administration since it got into office. Suddenly hopping off the bandwagon when the polls don't look so good isn't gonna work. Virginians might be a bunch of dumb fucks, but they're not THAT dumb.

On a related note, a guy that works in my office went to a costume party over the weekend. He dressed as George Allen and his wife dressed as Macaca. Just brilliant!

|10.31.06 @ 2:26PM|#

As for the "pedophile sex scene" in Webb's book, I truly believe that it's ultimately going to hurt Allen more than Webb. I actually think that people are smart enough to realize that, in the wake of the macaca debacle, the Allen camp went fishing for some dirt to fling back at Webb---and that this "sex" scene thing is just absurd, and taken out of context.

|10.31.06 @ 4:16PM|#

ped sex scene?

Lost Soldiers: "A shirtless man walked toward them along a mud pathway. His muscles were young and hard, but his face was devastated with wrinkles. His eyes were so red that they appeared to be burned by fire. A naked boy ran happily toward him from a little plot of dirt. The man grabbed his young son in his arms, turned him upside down, and put the boy's penis in his mouth."
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashaw.htm


I'm amazed at the number of "news" articles refering to this story that lack not only context, but text.

I've decided to make a career change. I kan be jurnalistik 2. "uh, like some dude made some outrageous claims about some stuff some other dude wrote, and the dude that wrote the stuff was like, no way dude, that stuff isn't anything like that" or "in breaking news, President Bush made some decisions that angered opponents and brought criticism upon his administration. Upon questioning, he replied the critics are wrong". Very informative.

|10.31.06 @ 5:27PM|#

How can you believe a poll conducted by CNN by telephone or any other method?
You can't and are a fool if you do.

|10.31.06 @ 6:06PM|#

What about the other polls showing the same thing?

|10.31.06 @ 7:19PM|#

Chris S. writes: "He's a spoiled SoCal fratboy who thought it would be fun to play Po' White Suthner for a few years."

And someone smacked him on the back of the head and he stuck like that?


In other news, doesn't that picture of Webb just cry out to be photoshopped green, and have bolts stuck on his neck?

|10.31.06 @ 8:53PM|#

Webb looks like he is about to hit someone all the time.

I like that. He has my vote.

|10.31.06 @ 9:48PM|#

I don't suppose all of you have seen "When George Allen Staffers Attack!" yet.

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=5613839

Complete with video!

|11.1.06 @ 7:16AM|#

So I've decided to vote for Webb. My center-left wife has decided to abstain (as she's still upset about the whole "sexism" charge.) If I only get 2 minutes to try to change her mind before she gets upset and loses interest, which tact should I take?
1. Webb may be a tool, but Allen's a bigger tool.
2. Webb may be a tool, but he's a Democratic tool.
3. Webb may be a tool, but Allen's an incumbent tool.
4. Webb's not so much of a tool that you can't vote for him.
5. Other

Dazzle me, Reasonoids!

|11.1.06 @ 8:52PM|#

#4. with a small dash of # 3.
Toolness shouldnt be rewarded. At the same time, a New Tool will spend/loose a lot of time getting bearings, while an Incumbent Tool can hit the deck Nov 7 in full bore tool mode.
Clearly, its Webb.
Bat your eyes, give her a foot massage, several martinis (6 stiff ones get em oiled up for the 7th, Ive found) and say: think of the chilllll-drennnn.
Good luck.