Be Fruitful and Multiply

Katherine Mangu-Ward | August 22, 2006

From today's Wall Street Journal, liberals don't have enough unprotected sex:

If you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections. Over the past 30 years this gap has not been below 20%.

Comments

|8.22.06 @ 12:38PM|#

KMW, methinks this might be a matter of that whole splinter-in-yonder-eye-plank-in-yours thing.

Liberals: 147 kids
Conservatives: 208 kids
Libertarians: spanking it to Hentai in the basement of Mom and Dad's house.

|8.22.06 @ 12:43PM|#

Breeding is not the only route to social change,

"Relatedness though common descent is known to have important effects on the evolution of social behavior for values of r in the range of 0.25 � 0.5 (e.g., for half or full sibs). The current results show that comparable levels of relatedness can arise without any role for common descent (Figs 4 & 5).

Exactly how does environmental feedback generate non-random assortment? As discussed above, the movements of cooperators tend to generate positive assortment, while those of defectors tend to generate negative assortment, with the outcome depending on the balance between these two processes. All else being equal, the more common type dominates the resulting assortment pattern. Thus when cooperators are common, environmental feedback generates positive assortment, which in turn favors the spread of cooperation. In contrast, when defectors are common environmental feedback generates negative assortment, which favors the spread of defection. Such positive frequency-dependence is expected to create a threshold effect for new mutations with either positive or negative effects on the local environment.

Consequently, environmental feedback will suppress novel social traits while they are rare, but if they reach high frequency through local stochastic events, it will stabilize them against invasion."

http://www.santafe.edu/research/publications/workingpapers/06-04-013.pdf

|8.22.06 @ 12:46PM|#

Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections.

Well not necessarily. If the other 20% overwhelmingly switch from republican to democrat that could even things out. Also there are conservative and liberal indepentents who are not aligned with either major party.

|8.22.06 @ 1:15PM|#

Now we know what the liberals and conservatives are doing. What about the largest bloc, the non-voters? How many kids are they having?

If they're the fastest breeders of all, then we could be heading toward a future where 5% of the population decides all of the elections.

Paul|8.22.06 @ 1:16PM|#

this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections. Over the past 30 years this gap has not been below 20%.

Mmmno it doesn't. It leads to a potential gap between Republicans and Democrats. There's no guarantee a kid is going to vote the way his parents do. Ever heard of teenage rebellion? And isn't it conservatives who complain about the university system indoctrinating their kids?

L Arnold|8.22.06 @ 1:17PM|#

"Maybe the scales are tipping to the neoconservative, homogenous right in our culture simply because they tend not to give much of a damn for the ramifications of wanton breeding and environmental destruction and pious sanctimony, whereas those on the left actually seem to give a whit for the health of the planet and the dire effects of overpopulation."

Or maybe it's because liberals tend to stack themselves in cities while conservatives tend to live out where they have room to raise kids.

I do love it when a California liberal moves to the Texas Hill Country and says, "Man, this place is beautiful. But you're running it all wrong."

|8.22.06 @ 1:19PM|#

Doesn't anybody remember Alex P. Keaton?!?!

|8.22.06 @ 1:26PM|#

My survey results show that libertarians have 300 kids per hundred.

I used myself as a typical example and extrapolated up from there. The survey also determined that 100% of libertarians have a dog named "Oscar". Odd, that.

|8.22.06 @ 1:26PM|#

"the Texas Hill Country and says, "Man, this place is beautiful."

You would have to be from LA to think the Texas Hill Country is beautiful...I mean come on.

Warren|8.22.06 @ 1:30PM|#

I find this hard to believe. Everything I've ever read says that wealthier people have fewer kids. While it's true that 'old money' is overwhelmingly liberal, the liberal ranks are filled with impoverished single parents and their children. Meanwhile the bulk of conservatives are middleclass families with 2.3 kids and a dog. The religious right has successfully courted the bible-thumping trailer-trash constituency, but I didn't think there were that many of them.

|8.22.06 @ 1:31PM|#

"Libertarians: spanking it to Hentai in the basement of Mom and Dad's house."

That's completely inaccurate. I've had my own apartment for years.

|8.22.06 @ 1:51PM|#

"Maybe the scales are tipping to the neoconservative, homogenous right in our culture simply because they tend not to give much of a damn for the ramifications of wanton breeding and environmental destruction and pious sanctimony, whereas those on the left actually seem to give a whit for the health of the planet and the dire effects of overpopulation."

Look up "pious sanctimony" in the dictionary and you'll see the picture of a liberal! LOL

|8.22.06 @ 1:57PM|#

"Look up "pious sanctimony" in the dictionary and you'll see the picture of a liberal! LOL"

No Ken look up pius sactimony and you will find Warren saying:


"The religious right has successfully courted the bible-thumping trailer-trash constituency, but I didn't think there were that many of them."

They don't build those giant churches in the suburbs from trailer trash giving up their meth sales proceeds. Go to any middle or upper middle-class suburb in the South or midwest and you will find a whole lot of reasonably well off, church going people with three or more kids. How those kids will turn out? Who knows, but there is no denying that they are there. The contrast becomes stark when you go from there into a serious liberal enclave like San Fran or Madison. Who lives there? A few twenty something hipster doofuses and a whole lot of aging boomers. You don't see a lot of families with young children in those places.

|8.22.06 @ 1:57PM|#

"Look up "pious sanctimony" in the dictionary and you'll see the picture of a liberal! LOL"

No Ken look up pius sactimony and you will find Warren saying:


"The religious right has successfully courted the bible-thumping trailer-trash constituency, but I didn't think there were that many of them."

They don't build those giant churches in the suburbs from trailer trash giving up their meth sales proceeds. Go to any middle or upper middle-class suburb in the South or midwest and you will find a whole lot of reasonably well off, church going people with three or more kids. How those kids will turn out? Who knows, but there is no denying that they are there. The contrast becomes stark when you go from there into a serious liberal enclave like San Fran or Madison. Who lives there? A few twenty something hipster doofuses and a whole lot of aging boomers. You don't see a lot of families with young children in those places.

|8.22.06 @ 2:26PM|#

So, basically the future is like Dawn of The Dead, but with Republicans.

|8.22.06 @ 3:18PM|#

Perhaps it's because most gays are liberal, and they're not breeding. Just a thought...

|8.22.06 @ 3:39PM|#

Ditto John...

For what it's worth, in my experience the fastest growing segment of the populace is the christian, middle-class family with 3+ kids filling up the megadevelopments in the exburbs. Come to the southwest sometime and check out the sprawling megadevelopments in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Riverside/San Bernardino county, etc... I can only imagine what Texas must be like...

The only thing is that most of these folks I've met don't vote, could barely name the vice-president, and couldn't give a shit unless something interferes with their hobbies.

|8.22.06 @ 4:08PM|#

Is this because Catholics and many of the fundamentalist Protestants who obsess over who sticks what into whom also teach that contraception is sinful?

As for sexual coupling itself, I doubt that Republicans have more (or better) sex than Democrats. Have you ever heard anyone ask for a piece of elephant?

|8.22.06 @ 4:23PM|#

"A few twenty something hipster doofuses and a whole lot of aging boomers. You don't see a lot of families with young children in those places."

So, what you're saying is that if I want to go see a movie without interruption, that's the place to be, eh?

|8.22.06 @ 4:32PM|#

"They don't build those giant churches in the suburbs from trailer trash giving up their meth sales proceeds. Go to any middle or upper middle-class suburb in the South or midwest and you will find a whole lot of reasonably well off, church going people with three or more kids."

Its precisely those sorts of "worship centers" that are driving me, running and screaming, from any sort of faith whatsoever.

Ugh. Thoughtless, bland, and pious all wrapped up in a ball of second-rate showmanship.

|8.22.06 @ 4:49PM|#

Mediageek,

There is a reason why I consider myself a Christian but refuse to join a church of any kind. The Catholics have a few things going for them, but I am not bowing to the will of the Pope. The mainline Protestant, National Council of Churches types, have spent way too much time kissing Castro's and every other third world anti-American thug's ass to ever get one red cent of my money. If I want to go to Church and listen to some anti-Semitic anti American peace of shit tell me how to live, I will read one Jimmy Carter's books. That leaves the evangelicals and the big "worship centers" you speak of. Ah, no thanks. Maybe the Eastern Orthodox will have me.

|8.22.06 @ 5:12PM|#

James Taranto at WSJ's OpinionJournal.com has been beating this drum for months. Googol* up "Roe effect."

Kevin

*(Googol, as a verb, does not violate Google's trademarks.)

|8.22.06 @ 5:40PM|#

without reading the article, I'd have to assume Mormons are considered conservative and probably through off statistical results.

|8.22.06 @ 5:56PM|#

While they may consider themselves Republicans, describing the middle class, white, Christian mega church attending suburb or exburb dwellers common in my area (Arizona) as conservative would be a stretch. Almost without exception, they are anti-gun and will support any government subsidy, tax increase, or new law as long as they get the benefits or they feel it will make life safer for their children. Examples are taxpayer funded day care, all day kindergarten, college grant and loan programs, increased property taxes for new schools, mandatory paid maternity leave, subsidized or free health insurance, bicycle helmet laws, curfews. They represent a new breed of nanny state loving, big government Republican. Other than the social conservative issues like anti-abortion and anti-gay, they actually have much more in common with the policies of the Democrats and liberals.

Xmas|8.22.06 @ 6:21PM|#

Libertarians, watching more tentacle porn in a month than most people do in a lifetime.

|8.22.06 @ 6:31PM|#

Long time AZ resident here, too.

My mom goes to church regularly, attends bible-study, and helps mentally and physically disabled people. She used to be pretty hard-core Democrat. I finally have her voting Libertarian these last few elections. I don't think she's anti-abortion or anti-gay, but she does work for the county and loves the security her job provides. If I was still a lad, she'd probably be more concerned with my safety, but we did live in rural areas most of my life, riding and raising horses, camping, etc, so she's just not as inclined to be a "saftey mom" in general.

I don't really know what that has to do with anything.

And although I may watch way more porn than is healthy or normal, I've only seen one tentacle porn flick. And my ex rented it. (She was kinky.)

|8.22.06 @ 6:37PM|#

Apparently Darwin most favors those who don't believe him. The irony!

|8.22.06 @ 6:58PM|#

I'm one of 8 kids. My parents are agnostic, non-church-going, white liberals.

We're the only family like this I've ever heard of.

|8.22.06 @ 7:15PM|#

I only skimmed the thread, but has someone already brought up this point?

Just how true is the assumption that the kids of Republicans always grow up to be Republicans and not Democrats, and vice versa?

|8.22.06 @ 7:46PM|#

Stevo...

Try this paper
http://www.igs.berkeley.edu/publications/workingpapers/99-9.pdf
Looks like there is not such a strong trend.

also...

European Journal of Political Research
Volume 12 Page 261 - September 1984
doi:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1984.tb00088.x
Volume 12 Issue 3


The Intergenerational Transfer of Political Ideologies in Eight Western Nations*
M. KENT JENNINGS1
ABSTRACT

Pre�adult socialization is one way in which political ideologies are formed. Parents can affect the ideologies of their offspring through direct transmission or through the indirect mechanism of family social milieu. This paper analyses parent�adolescent pairs drawn from a larger sample survey study of eight western nations carried out in the mid�1970s. Three varieties of ideological perspectives are addressed: the traditional left�right continuum, pro� and anti�establishment attitudes, and material�postmaterial value structures. In general the familiar and historically rich orientations of the left�right dimension are transmitted much more successfully than are the remaining two, which are newer and less encapsulating. Regardless of particular ideology, the direct transmission model is significantly more faithful to the findings than an indirect model based on the family's social class and religious composition. The distortion in the reproduction of ideologies between the generations indicates the importance of intra�individual development and macro�level forces as sources of political ideologies.

another, more interesting, article looking at how much of the politics a person ends up with can be explained by genetic factors (a twin study)..

http://www.psych.umn.edu/courses/fall05/mcguem/psy8935/readings/alford2005.pdf

|8.22.06 @ 9:52PM|#

Shortly after the 2004 presidential election, I calculated the number of abortions that had occurred in the US from 1973 to 1986. The number more than accounted for the number of votes by which Kerry lost the election, assuming that most of the women who had abortions were liberal and would have had children who would have voted for the pro-abortion candidate.
Not conclusive, but I thought it was interesting.

|8.23.06 @ 12:26AM|#

I give up. I don't want to googol* "tentacle porn." Give me a hint.

*I want to keep Kevin/Kevrob happy.

|8.23.06 @ 1:01AM|#

One should note that at the same time that conservatives are multiplying that they are also getting considerably more liberal.

Hell it has gotten so bad that this conservative son of a conservative thinks of himself as a liberal.

|8.23.06 @ 1:17PM|#

Try wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tentacle_porn

Tentacled creatures appeared in Japanese erotica long before animated pornography; among the most famous of the early instances (and perhaps the first) is a Hokusai (the original creator of the word manga) woodcut called The Dream of the Fisherman's Wife, depicting a woman sexually entwined with a pair of octopuses. This woodcut arose in the Edo period in Japan when Shinto was making a resurgence; the resulting animism and a more playful attitude to sexuality combined powerfully in Hokusai's piece. It is a celebrated example of shunga and has been reworked by a number of artists. Australian artist David Laity reworked the woodcut into a painting of the same name, and Masami Teraoka brought the image up to date with his 2001 work "Sarah and Octopus/Seventh Heaven", part of his Waves and Plagues collection.

Toshio Maeda's manga Urotsukidoji pioneered the modern concept of tentacle porn. Maeda explained that he invented the practice to get around strict Japanese censorship regulations, which prohibit the depiction of the penis but apparently do not prohibit showing sexual penetration by a tentacle or similar (often robotic) appendage.