Julian Sanchez | September 19, 2005
Jonathan Rauch calculates the costs and benefits of letting a city drown.
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This is actually the first time I know of someone referencing the song when talking about NO. I myself was singing the day after it happened.
I find it sort of sad that he had to explain what Mount Rainier is. That thing goes and you can kiss Seattle goodbye.
Nah, no need to worry about Rainier. Yellowstone will blow up
any day now and life will cease to exist on earth.
I should really stop watching the Discovery Channel.
Good piece! I hadn't seen that perspective voiced yet, but I'm convinced by the argument.
A couple of points:
1. The problem with the reasoning in the article is that it assumes
that the American taxpayer should be forced to pay for the folly of
builiding a large city in a location that it really shouldn't have
been in the first place. It like those people that build their
multi-million dollar homes on barrier beaches. They get wiped out
by hurricanes and the owners expect the federal govt. (i.e us) to
pay for the rebuilding. What happened in NO is a perfect example of
mankind's hubris biting him hard in the butt.
2. The "200 year" calculations are nice on paper but mother nature
doesn't pay attention to them. The next "200 year" storm could
happen next week, next month , next year or 300 years from now.
Statistically, they're all within the "200 year" scenario. A more
useful way to look at it is to put it in terms of likelihood - what
are the odds of a storm of that magnitude hitting NO in any given
year? What are the odds that if such a storm does happen, the city
will be destroyed? The "200 year storm" thing lulls people into
believing that the event can't happen in their lifetimes (the next
one won't happen for another 200 years, right? WRONG), so they
don't feel the need to prepare and plan appropriately.
3. Because of these two things, the only reasonable thing to do is
to restrict building in areas that are high risk (and NO is
certainly in the riskiest of risky locations), take reasonable
precaution to protect what you do build (reasonble meaning suitable
for the average emergency rather than the exceptional), develop a
good plan to evacuate if necessary and then accept that the place
is going to get wiped out every now and again.
When that happens, don't come crying to the fed government to help
you rebuild. You made the choice so live with it.
Re: the Led Zep song - I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought of
it. I held off for a week after the hurricane hit before blasting
the tune in my car on my way to work. I felt a bit guilty, but man,
that's a great tune....
If there is another New Orleans out there, the public
should know about it and should
have to think about it. Katrina should change
American habits of mind forever.
(emphasis added)
You might as well wish for the vast majority of people to
rationally and unemotionally evaluate risks and benefits of any
action. It isn't going to happen.
JMoore,
Heck, the people on the east coast also have to worry from the
Greenland ice sheet coming off in one BIG avalanche and creating a
200-foot tsunami.
life will cease to exist on earth
Eh? Not quite I think, but if that volcano that's 30,000 years
overdue does blow, a good chunk of the western US will sure be gone
goombye. Katrina has renewed my thoughts of what route I would try
to take from here in Denver as soon as I heard about it. Most
likely in futility, I know. Oh well, maybe it'll wait another
10,000 years....
the only reasonable thing to do is to restrict building in
areas that are high risk (and NO is certainly in the riskiest of
risky locations)
Isn't this contradictory? If people can't ask for help when their
houses get knocked down, then they SHOULD be able to build wherever
they please, right?
Also, as for your first point, I'm in partial agreement. Except in
the case of a certain number of the population who did not
necessarily choose to live in NOLA, but were simply born there in
poverty.
Yellowstone will blow up any day now and life will cease to
exist on earth.
Another catastrophic side effect of global warming, no doubt.
Ah yes, Seattle. America's future Pompeii. Imagine what the
"Repent America" crowd will claim when that city is buried under a
pyroclastic flow.
"Obviously, this 'ere diaster isa message from tha laurd. A
punishment fur all tha Say-tanic grunge rock, dope smoking,
gay-lovin' liberalism that has infected tha Left Coast. Now, some
of them thar godless, commie, atheists out thar will say that this
is just a bunch o' random mol-ee-cules a happin', but the most
likely explanation has to be an angry God..."
Yeah, I'm still ticked off at Don Feder for his comments last
week.
A fine article, until the suggestion that "Congress create" a committee, etc. Like that committee wouldn't become yet another opportunity to dole out federal pork. What congress needs to do is tell high risk communities, "After the big one hits, plan on rebuilding out of your own pocket." Maybe one (or two or three) of the bazillion policy think tanks out there can develop an annual list of which localities are at highest risk; it seems like they'd be fractionally more impartial than the vote whores in Congress.
Mr. Average makes some really good points about "risk
management" without really tying them together (at least the way I
see it).
Just because something is statistically improbable does not mean it
won't happen - i.e., we could have a storm worse than Katrina hit
NOLA in October.
Just like all other value, the values used in risk management are
highly, if not entirely subjective. Is it worth the risk of
catastrophe to live in SoCal? For some people the answer is clearly
yes. You can't really make "objective" measures like what Rauch
describes a federal agency using. It's the same problem we have
with the FDA - the risks of a new AIDS or cancer treatment may be
worth it to some patients, or even arthritis treatments. All you
can do is give people access to the facts necessary to allow them
to make informed decisions. And then, allow them to make decisions
for which they are responsible.
Is it just me or is the specter of Rauch's federal agency of
"relocation for your own good" a truly scary thing?
Yellowstone will blow up any day now and life will cease to
exist on earth.
Another catastrophic side effect of global warming, no
doubt.
Global warming? Global warming would have nothing to do with the
Yellowstone volcano, the eruption of which and subsequent
destruction of the world and the American way of life, is going to
be caused by one thing and one thing only: violent video games like
Grand Theft Auto.
I thought Janet Jackson's nipple will be the cause of the end of
civilization.
That and gay marriage.
We already have an institution that provides a systematic
evaluation of risk and calculates the economic tradeoffs.
It's called the insurance industry.
If the freemarket won't insure your property and life in a
particular area at a cost that you feel you care bear, then that is
an excellent indication that it is to dangerous to live
there.
It was government funding, and especially federal funding, of the
levee system that created the conditions for this disaster in the
first place. The subsidized levees caused the city to grow larger
than it would have otherwise. It caused the city to fill
disproportionately with poor. The levees disrupted the environment
of the delta making the storm effects worse.
Building in New Orleans is like building a house on top of a
railroad track because you haven't seen a train come by in quite a
while. No matter how many billions we spend on levees the city will
always be in extreme danger. There is always the chance that freak
event, like a barge or ship striking the levee, will breach it and
flood the city.
I think the best solution would be to require every property owner
in NO and similar areas to carry private insurance. The insurance
companies could then fund mitigation efforts. Price singles would
then communicate how many people could live in relative safety in
the area.
I wonder how many people the government killed as a result of the storm? No, not due to a failure of emergency response, but by providing economic incentives to build, invest and live in an area at high risk for this kind of disaster. Subsidized flood insurance, billions of federal dollars for infrastructure like levees, cheap rebuilding funds, relocation aid, etc., etc. The assurance that the government will bail you out for your bad decision only causes a larger number of people to make that bad decision. Force people to face the true economic costs of their decision and you will save lives.
"builiding a large city in a location that it really shouldn't
have been in the first place."
"Building in New Orleans is like building a house on top of a
railroad track because you haven't seen a train come by in quite a
while."
You people keep regurgitating these Republican talking points, but
they're not true. Friedman at stratfor has pointed out in no
uncertain terms that there HAS to be a city there, or we might as
well give up on exporting farm products.
Considering the large number of poor New Orleanians who had no insurance at all, I don't think subsidized flood insurance is the reason they were there.
Shannon,
Right on. Although I wouldn't go so far as to require insurance. If
you want to bear the full risk yourself, be my guest!
Let it be known that at least one of us was publicly touting the glories of "When the Levee Breaks" the first week of the flood.
Imagine what the "Repent America" crowd will claim when that
city is buried under a pyroclastic flow.
The funny thing is, if someone was crazy/demented enough to believe
that Katrina was an act of divinely-inspired retribution, I would
think that the nature of the havoc would lead Iraq to emerge as
said person's most likely explanation for God's displeasure.
Between the chaos, the looting, the breakdowns in civil society,
the staggering administrative ineptitude, and the subsequent
checkpoint and curfew-laden military occupation, you'd think that
he/she/it was making a point of giving Americans a Gulf-coast slice
of Baghdad.
But unsurprisingly, I haven't seen too many fundies come up with
that rationale.
Erm, I'm going to have to put in a word for NOLA.
Two actually: network effects.
History, which is out of our individual control, does have an
impact on our choices. We are often bound by the choices of our
foreparents, even though we may know better.
M1EK-
You raise a good point. But the question is just how large the city
needs to be. I don't claim any expertise on the Port of New
Orleans, but I would assume that at least some of the companies
shipping through there will take a look at other options, resulting
in a somewhat leaner port (not so good for NO) and a more
diversified shipping portfolio (good for the country overall to not
put more eggs than necessary in a single risky basket). Also, in
addition to its two main industries (tourism and the port), plus
the services needed to support those industries (e.g. port workers
need grocery stores, barbers, cars, etc.) I assume that New Orleans
has some other businesses that will take a serious look at
relocating. Such is life.
So the rebuilt city will almost certainly be smaller regardless of
what we or the politicians or anybody else might think.
As to insurance: Jennifer raises an excellent point. If you are
poor and rent in an old building for which the mortgage was already
paid (so there's no bank insisting on insurance) and the landlord
isn't terribly forward-thinking, then you aren't affected by
insurance premiums. (Not all inner-city landlords are thinking
carefully about long-term investments.) In the absence of mandatory
insurance, a free market will tend to put the poorest in the
riskiest areas. And government interventions run the risk of
creating perverse incentives that lure people into taking imprudent
risks as well.
The lesson? The problem of people living in risky areas is more
complicated than the standard market vs. government terms that we
like to think in. Either way there's a good chance that some people
will end up in risky areas. Let me emphasize that I'm not calling
for any coercive remedies (note that I just expressed skepticism
there), but I am suggesting that life doesn't always have easy
answers. Anybody who suggests that the remedies are all very simple
is probably full of it.
Jennifer,
Maybe flood insurance isn't an issue for poor people, but that
doesn't mean they aren't influenced into a sense of false security
when they are assured of the safety of levees, the "plan" to
evacuate and care for them, funds to help them recover whatever
(small though it may be) they have.
We all know that poor people have fewer choices, but they still
have to make the best choices with the resources and limits they
have and skewing their decision with federally subsidized safety
nets only risks more lives.
Katrina illustrated:
The really fun project that could come out of this is to get some folks together and come up with The Libertarian Response in Times of Disaster.
Todd--
Having spent a good chunk of time as an official Poor Person
myself, I can say that thinking about the distant future is more a
middle- and upper-class phenomenon. People worried about how
they'll scrape together enough money for this month's rent don't
have the time to worry about what would happen IF a natural
disaster were to occur sometime in the distant future. As Thoreau
said, poor people will likely always wind up in riskier areas,
because they can't afford anything better.
When I first heard Katrina was going to hit New Orleans, I had a
fit of morbid curiosity which led me to check NO housing prices on
Realtor.com. I'm saving money to buy a house in Connecticut, but my
savings account is not yet enough to make the standard
twenty-percent-down payment on anything up here. Yet that same
paltry Connecticut savings account would have enabled me to buy TWO
houses down there, for cash.
THAT is why so many poor people lived down there--because they
couldn't afford much else.
Or to put it another way, you don't have time to worry about the future until you get some control over the present.
JMoore-
I should emphasize that I'm not calling for mandatory insurance
either. Not really for the usual ideological reasons, more because
I haven't thought through the consequences yet. But I do know that
if the public sector provides some sort of guarantee then the
result may be that middle and upper income brackets are subsidized
to take risks (e.g. John Stossel's article on cheap federal
insurance for cliff-side houses). And if the public sector stays
completely out of it, the poorest and most vulnerable may end up in
uninsured homes in hazardous areas. Either way, a bunch of people
will live in hazardous areas.
Maybe there's a third way, a modest and intelligent regulation that
will fix it all. But I know better than to take such claims at face
value. Maybe some people are right and mandatory insurance will fix
it all. But I want to think really carefully before I agree with
such a claim.
The lesson? Be wary of anybody who claims to have simple and
obvious answers to complex problems. Natural disasters will always
pose a threat to society, regardless of whether it's organized in a
libertarian manner, or by inefficient bureaucrats, by (allegedly)
clever technocrats, or whatever else. This isn't an endorsement of
statism, just a caution against knee-jerk responses and overly
optimistic claims. ("Look, the market will create overnight
paradise with zero risk of storms!")
But unsurprisingly, I haven't seen too many fundies come up
with that rationale.
Of course not! The Iraq war is a great crusade to fight the
muslims... I mean, the terrorists... I mean, global extremism.
They're weren't any insurgents in New Orleans, just homos, and
liberals, and voodoo priests, and abortionists, and
pornographers...
What? Why are you rolling your eyes like that? Don't you remeber
9/11? Are you FOR the terrorists??? Just like a filthy liberal to
blame America for those freedom-hating moose-lims. Why do you hate
American, Eric II? ;)
"but I would assume that at least some of the companies shipping
through there will take a look at other options, resulting in a
somewhat leaner port (not so good for NO) and a more diversified
shipping portfolio"
There's nowhere else you can put a port on the Mississippi, so the
farm traffic ain't going anywhere. And the oil/gas terminals aren't
going to move either - too expensive to move to Texas; just as
risky to move anywhere else on the Gulf.
Jennifer,
Don't make any assumptions about me. I'm betting that I could more
than match you on the experience with poverty. I've done better for
myself as an adult, but was extremely poor as a child. My folks
managed to make a couple of cross-state moves looking for better
work.
I'm always uneasy when we start thinking/talking about the poor as
somehow less than fully thinking human beings who just accept
whatever life has handed them. No doubt there are some who fit that
description, but not most. Because the poor are going to tend to be
less educated, less informed, less able to make dramatic changes,
it is even more important that we don't give them misleading
incentives.
I don't know about New Orleans, but new building in areas
subject to storm surge has to be up on tall pilings. The threat is
that if a local community doesn't impose such a building code, then
FEMA won't provide emergency relief come the next flood.
Existing buildings are exempt. And, even buildings on high enough
ground such that the regulations don't apply could be subject to
storm surge if a strong enough storm hits the right place.
Todd--
I'm not planning to start a who-was-more-deprived pissing contest
with you. But your earlier post made it sound like the poor people
of New Orleans moved into their homes with the thought "Aw, hell,
the levee's gonna break and wash us all away, but that's all right
because the government will take care of us when that happens!" But
I highly doubt any of them thought that way--most likely they
thought, "Hey! This rent is cheap enough that I can afford to pay
it each month and still have money left for food!"
On a semi-related note, a few weeks before Katrina there was a story about New Orleans--some guys did an experiment, firing over 700 rounds of blank ammunition to see who how many people would call 911 to report gunshots. Not one person did. Doesn't sound to me like the poor folks of New Orleans expected a hell of a lot from their government.
M1EK - Yes there has to be a port. The benfits and necessity of
building and operating a port and its associated support
infrastructure in the area outweigh the inherent risk. There does
not have to be a large city full of people and businesses totally
unrelated to the operation of the port. The governemnt should not
be in the business of making it possible for non-essential
activity/building to happen in this or any other high risk
area.
BTW - I was unaware that this was a uniquely Republican POV. I am
not a Republican. This whole idea has been around for a long time.
Read John McPhee's "The Control of Nature" for starters.
1993 floods...
"the chances of that happening are zero"
probably the assessment of the probability is incorrect.
can we get convergence between the enviro chicken littles and the
national security chicken littles? this could get amusing. in the
meantime, yes, we the citizens of illinois should pay for our own
damn levies on the mississippi and ohio. Even though the Ohio is,
um, downstate.
have there been more intense storms in recent years? should that
count in assessment?
ah, yes. the politics and business of risk...
check.
uncheck.
knight jumps queen.
pawns jump queen.
and then we deteriorate into a Mel Brooks scene.
we the citizens of illinois should pay for our own damn
levies on the mississippi and ohio. Even though the Ohio is, um,
downstate.
But that opens a whole new can of worms--building a levee upstream
can increase the chance of a flood downstream. Or is it vice-versa?
At any rate, when you're talking about a river going through many
states, and when one state's activity will have an effect on other
states, I'm not sure if something like that CAN be left to
individual states.
Jennifer,
there's a whole series of levies down the mississippi, yes it did
cause troubles during the flooding, too.
at any rate, i don't think the citizens of maryland should have to
pay for illinois part of the TVA/ Army corps of engineers.
so the levees exist already, but i don't think they should be
maintained by others. this is just thinking that was mentioned post
1993 flooding.
how was the NYC reason event?
M1EK-
I honestly don't know the answer to this, but couldn't ships on the
Mississipi go past NO to the Gulf and dock at a port on the Gulf?
Sure, the Gulf is also prone to hurricanes, but to the best of my
knowledge most Gulf cities aren't below sea level.
Or is the Mississippi delta not navigable past NO? I simply don't
know.
Again, I'm not predicting that the Port of NO will vanish. I'm
predicting that:
1) At least some businesses will find other options, slightly
reducing the traffic through the port.
2) Many businesses not directly related to the Port, the tourists
(French Quarter is on comparatively high ground, IIRC), or support
services for those industries will find somewhere else to go.
I'm not predicting or calling for the abandonment of NO, but I
don't see what's so controversial about the prediction that the
city will be appreciably smaller.
The Missisippi does not want to flow in its current banks. It wants to flow down the Achafalaya River. The folks demanded, in & around NO, got assurances from Washington that the Mississippi would continue to flow past NO.It was actually even legislated by the Congrss that so much flow would always flow past NO. The Corps of Engineers must contend with this. There is a great book about the flood of '27, about the Mississippi River, & its relationship with NO, & people living in the area. It's title is "Rising Tide". Sorry, cannot remember the author's name. I can highly recommend it for learning information of the current state of affairs in the lower Mississippi delta region. The Port of NO, should(by nature) be an economic backwater. We should let it become one. The Mississippi will beat the Corps, every time, with the mentality of our federal government at this time. There will come a time when we cannot rebuild some metropolitan area. I think the very thought of "giving up" on a city by not rebuilding it is unthinkable from the government perspective, but would our government leaders bankrupt the country because San Francicso,New York, & New Orleans, & Washington, are all in need of rebuilding at the same time? Unfortunately, I think they would. I would rather be one city shy of a full country. We would STILL have a country, anyway. Private, non subsidized insurance would go a long way in solving this problem.
After that should come a revision of America's disaster
strategy no less sweeping than the post-9/11 revision of America's
security strategy.
No thanks. I'd like something that actually makes us safer. And
doesn't waste so much money.
And if we're tossing around scenarios like Seattle and SoCal, let's
not forget the New Madrid fault. I believe they are due for a
biggie soon, which will likely be a disaster for Memphis.
Hey, this is a fun link I turned up while looking for New Madrid
info:
Top
10 ways to destroy Earth
After that should come a revision of America's disaster
strategy no less sweeping than the post-9/11 revision of America's
security strategy.
Give the executive branch unprecedented authority to detain without
trial any suspicious-looking clouds?
"On a semi-related note, a few weeks before Katrina there was a
story about New Orleans--some guys did an experiment, firing over
700 rounds of blank ammunition to see who how many people would
call 911 to report gunshots."
Actually, they only fired 100 rounds of blanks. The other 600
rounds were locals returning fire.
SEATTLE is not at great risk from Mt. Rainier blowing up.
It's TACOMA that is at risk. Which is kinda like the poor,
redheaded stepchild of Seattle...
And if the public sector stays completely out of it, the
poorest and most vulnerable may end up in uninsured homes in
hazardous areas.
That might be the case, except that insurance is an essential part
of a mortgage or home equity loan.
The Port of NO, should(by nature) be an economic
backwater.
The reason they keep the Mississippi flowing the way it does is
because we have something like a couple hundred miles worth of port
along its banks - i.e. far more than just to please New
Orleans.
Jennifer,
Not trying to make a comparison or start a pissing match. You made
a point of mentioning that you were poor and therefor knew
something about how poor folk live...I was just letting you know
that I also have a little perspective on that.
My argument is that some people would have made the decision to
take the risk regardless, but that the more we artificially lower
the cost, the larger the number who will take the risk.
some people would have made the decision to take the risk
regardless, but that the more we artificially lower the cost, the
larger the number who will take the risk.
So you're saying that things like the levees artificially lowered
the cost of living in the crappy parts of New Orleans? I
disagree--if anything, a complete lack of protection would probably
have made the flood-prone areas even LESS desirable places to live,
and correspondingly cheaper.
And I forgot to add, of course, that the cheaper a place is, the more poor people you're likely to find there.
Mortgaged buildings obviously carry insurance.
My understanding is that there are slums in NO with dirt roads and
houses that are basically shacks. I've got a hunch that some of
those shacks have been in families for some time or have changed
owners through informal transactions.
Periodic changes in ownership with bank involvement would no doubt
bring about insurance involvement and market pricing that reflects
risk. But informal transactions, inheritance, and short-sighted
landlords may not have insurance. And so, as Jennifer and I have
both argued, the poorest will end up in those places.
I'm not trying to argue against the market. But let's not wave our
hands and pretend that markets will never ever result in poor
people living in dangerous places. The free market may be better
than the alternatives, but stop pretending that it is perfect. In
real life nothing is perfect, and natural disasters have a way of
screwing up even the best laid plans of mice and capitalists.
I'm saying that if local landowners had to pay the full price for building and maintaining levees, pumps, evacuation plans, flood insurance, potential rebuilding due to disaster, etc., then rents would not be as cheap and poor people would be less able to live there. I'm not naive enough to think that the market will solve everyone's problems and eliminate poverty, disparity, etc., but in this case it is the subsidization of these costs by the government (e.g. the multi hundred billion dollar recovery that is about to take place) that give poor folks an even greater opportunity to be trapped in a bad place.
Yet that same paltry Connecticut savings account would have
enabled me to buy TWO houses down there, for cash.
Yeah, I made the mistake of MetaFilter once and the guy gave a
number for a minimum downpayment in California and it was enough to
easily by a very decent house in most areas of Michigan. And no
hurricanes here! So I think risk only really accounts for a very
small percentage of that difference.
toddb-
If property owners had to pay the full cost of protecting the city
from flood then you're right, the cost of living in the low-lying
areas would be higher. In fact, if costs were allocated according
to benefits then payments would increase as one went further below
the water level.
The problem with implementing this idea purely via the free market
is coordination: If the entire low-lying area was owned by a single
person or company then that person or company would have a very
strong incentive to take the initiative to build the necessary
levees and whatnot. But if there are a variety of property owners,
once enough of them sign on to pay for the levees, the remainder
have no incentive to pay anything for it. It's a classic public
goods problem.
thoreau,
Yes, I agree. That's why I argue that government action in this
case serves to endanger lives. There would probably be no way to
coordinate this locally and even if you could there would be too
few resources to cover the costs. Thus, the city could not exist
(or at least not continue after a disaster) in its current
configuration below sea level.
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