Trading on Iraqi Constitutional Change

Ronald Bailey | August 29, 2005

Intrade, the Ireland based electronic exchange for politics, current events, financial indicators, weather and other unique contracts, just opened a market on the new Iraqi constitution.

A press release from Intrade notes:

traders are betting the constitution will pass when it comes to a vote on October 15th.

Intrade.com began trading contracts tied to the ratification of the Iraq Constitution with a rush of volume, mostly on the upside. Traders on Intrade.com correctly predicted the outcome of the US general election in 2004, Tony Blair's re-election and Cardinal Ratszinger's appointment to the papacy are also betting on ratification.

"The probability of a YES Vote is now about 55%, with all the rhetoric on rejecting this referendum and the history of correctly predicting political election results, I wouldn't take the other side of this trade", said Mike Knesevitch, Director of Communications at Intrade.

In other trading on the "War on Terror," the price for a contract betting that Osama bin Laden will be captured by the end of this year has fallen from $30 in May to only $12 now.