New at Reason

Tim Cavanaugh | February 14, 2005

Why is the death of Rafiq Hariri the worst news out of the Middle East in years? Here's why.

Comments

|2.14.05 @ 7:04PM|#

Tim --

Said it all about right!

Semi-ignorant guesswork:

Odds of whodunit:

Salafis (bin-Ladenites/fellow travelers) -- 45%
Syrian officialdom -- 40%
Syrian rogue intelligence -- 10%
Anti-Syrians (Israelis/Phalagists etc.)setting them up for the fallout -- 5%

|2.14.05 @ 8:24PM|#

OK, what's with Reason's Lebanon connection anyway?

Tim Cavanaugh|2.14.05 @ 8:41PM|#

Mine is by marriage, as is Freund's. Young's is by matrilineal inheritance.

|2.14.05 @ 8:53PM|#

There are a lot of really hot chicks in Lebannon, but are they libertarian friendly?

|2.14.05 @ 10:45PM|#

When I mention to my (male, UAE) students that I'll be visiting Beirut sometime soon, they talk of nothing but the women. "You will love them", they say, "but what is better is that they will love you..."

|2.14.05 @ 11:15PM|#

Wow, back when I was graduating from college I dreamed of getting a job at the Daily Star, then just starting up. And to think, I was interested in the culture.

Tim Cavanaugh|2.14.05 @ 11:23PM|#

Salafis (bin-Ladenites/fellow travelers) -- 45%
Syrian officialdom -- 40%
Syrian rogue intelligence -- 10%
Anti-Syrians (Israelis/Phalagists etc. setting them up for the fallout -- 5%

Good guesses. The power and purported sophistication of the attack leads me toward the first category. Michael Young just appeared on CNN to make the case that the Syrians are the ones who will be paying the political price, whether they're guilty or not. Syrian rogues are a possibility, but that leads inexorably to the old someone-should-tell-the-Czar belief that Bashar is a reformer under pressure from the old guard, and that's getting harder to believe. As for the anti-Syrians, I don't think Israel cares enough and I can't imagine the Kataeb being able to pull it off-nor, other than a real lunatic fringe, are there all that many Maronite true believers who hate Hariri as much as they hate, for one, Lahoud. But anything's possible, and somebody did it.

I'm happy to see Condi out front demanding some oversight of the investigation. At least somebody seems to realize how important this is.

|2.15.05 @ 8:19AM|#

"I don't think Israel cares enough"

Tim, I disagree wholeheartedly. I agree with Michael that the Syrians are the ones who will be paying the political price, whether they're guilty or not. That alone makes Israel care and makes it as much a suspect as anyone else on your list. I just don't see why the Syrians, who stand to lose the most, would assasinate Hariri? After all, Hariri just joined the anti-Syria chorous recently.

Also, I'll throw in the Iranians in the mix.

|2.15.05 @ 8:49AM|#

Tim --

Perhaps I should amend the suspect list to:

4% -- Kataibi, Israeli anti-Syrians
1 % -- Other anti-Syrians: e.g. Michael Young

KIDDING! All you Lebanese/Syrian casual surfers, this is kidding and not a conspiracy accusation against Michael Young.

Additional list:

Probability in Lebanon that the most bizarre conspiracy theory will be believed -- 75%

Probability in USA Hawk party a bizarre conspiracy theory will be believed, as long as it involves a) the Syrians or especially b) the Syrians and al-
Qaeda working together -- 80%

|2.15.05 @ 11:06AM|#

The argument that the Syrian government was behind the attack ignores the obvious question: Why would the Syrians want to carry out the attack so spectacularly? The Syrians may have wanted him to shut up, but destabilizing Lebanon is not in their interests. It is, however, a major interest of parties who would like to see a US attack on Lebanon/Syria. I would reorder Matthew Hogan's ranking as follows:

Anti-Syrians (Israelis/Phalagists etc.)setting them up for the fallout -- 45%
Salafis (bin-Ladenites/fellow travelers) -- 30%
Syrian officialdom -- 20%
Syrian rogue intelligence -- 5%