The War in Libya and the "Arab Spring"
A Reason roundtable
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Christopher A. Preble
Why has there been such a flowering of revolt in the Arab world in North Africa and the Middle East in the past few months? Is there a common root cause to protests and revolts, whether ultimately successful in creating less-oppressive regimes, in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere?
The semi-short answer is that all illiberal governments are based on a shaky foundation, lacking popular support and unresponsive to changing political circumstances. Their ability to retain power depends upon a combination of sticks (intimidation, violence, incarceration of regime opponents) and carrots (economic opportunity, a decent standard of living, or simply co-opting some number of people through bribes). When the latter becomes shaky, as when food prices spike, or unemployment rises, or people rebel against corruption and cronyism (all factors in the recent protests) the regimes can resort to more violence, or make concessions. The different ways that the protests across the Middle East/North Africa region have played out reveals the different policies adopted in response to them. In that sense, I think that some of these protests will ultimately succeed in liberalizing some countries in a region where people have been consistently denied fundamental rights and liberties. But there will also be setbacks, as a few regimes will likely succeed in stifling domestic dissent, and therefore postpone the day of reckoning for at least a while longer.
Is the impulse to challenge repressive regimes likely to spread to other countries in the region and, if so, which ones?
It already has spread quite dramatically from what was considered to be, at the time, a fairly isolated protest in Tunisia. In addition to the countries mentioned above, the impulse to challenge the existing order clearly exists in Iran, Bahrain, and Jordan, or really any country where the regime's lacks the support of a considerable portion of its public, or even—as in a country like Iraq or Lebanon—where a vocal minority is systematically disenfranchised. Whether these impulses manifest themselves into public protests, or even open revolt, depends on the strength of the protest movements, and the regime's response to them.
What should the role of the United States in the region be as events unfold?
Here, as with most things, we need to draw a distinction between the U.S. government and the United States. If Washington, the White House or Congress, the U.S. military, or any other U.S. government agency, is seen as playing a very public role, the regime and its supporters can too easily claim that Uncle Sam's grubby fingerprints all over the protest movement, deflecting attention away from the root causes of public unrest, and likely causing some people to rally to the embattled regime. In a few cases, the U.S. government might be able to apply pressure on the regime through back channels, but there is always a chance that these efforts can backfire, especially if they become public. So the Obama administration needs to tread carefully, as they appear to have done successfully in Egypt. In the case of Libya, however, President Obama and other senior advisers loudly called for Gaddafi's ouster and openly backed the rebels. Now the United States is a party to a civil war. No one knows the end game. In contrast, the response to private citizens and NGOs doing the slow, patient, and non-violent work of democracy promotion is likely to have a more lasting impact. Liberty should spread organically, from the bottom up, not at the barrel of foreign guns.
Christopher A. Preble is the director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Michael J. Totten
Why has there been such a flowering of revolt in the Arab world in North Africa and the Middle East in the past few months? Is there a common root cause to protests and revolts, whether ultimately successful in creating less-oppressive regimes, in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere?
The Middle East has been seething with discontent against its rulers for a very long time. Though dictatorships always have a base of support among those who benefit from the system and from those who fear the alternative, every autocratic regime in the region without exception is unpopular. The list of complaints varies somewhat from place to place, but a hatred of oppression, corruption, and economic stagnation seem to be common denominators.
In the Arab countries, there are at least two distinct types of people taking to the streets at the same time—democrats and Islamists. (Islamists aren’t really part of Iran’s Green Movement as they are already in power in Tehran.) The democrats want a more open and less repressive government while the Islamists yearn for a faith-based authoritarian regime which they believe will somehow work better than the failed secular states already in place.
It’s impossible to say in advance which of these two factions will win out over the other in post-revolutionary struggles for power. Maybe neither faction will come out on top. Egypt, for instance, could remain in the hands of the military, frustrating liberal reformists and Islamists alike. My guess is that the idealists who are swooning right now will be disappointed, and that the gloomiest pessimists who expect every revolution to turn out like Iran’s did in 1979 will be relieved. That’s just a gut feeling, though. The Middle East is too weird for easy predictions.
All this really did start in Tunisia, which, by the way, has the best chance of success as the country’s culture was semi-democratic to begin with even as the system itself was not. The overthrow of Ben Ali proved that internally-driven regime-change was possible, and the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt proved that internally-driven regime change was not only possible but likely to succeed if enough people pushed hard enough at the same time.
Is the impulse to challenge repressive regimes likely to spread to other countries in the region and, if so, which ones?
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time.
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The Arabs are revolting.
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You can say that again.
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"For once, we're in agreement."
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How about we just serve as an example of a stable, liberal, tolerant, prosperous society? Make it clear that if they move in that direction, we'll likely do more business with them? That used to work okay.
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Pointing out how good our cops are at shooting dogs might work better.
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That is enviable.
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How about we just serve as an example of a stable, liberal, tolerant, prosperous society?
Isolationist!!!! -
They need an authentic justice system to become an ethicize society but it it can't be taught without time, and expense.
Our media has been the principle turbine for change.
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Always with the negative waves, Moriarty.
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I've used that statement at staff meetings. Sadly, fewer people get it these days. Ditto references to the Cone of Silence.
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"Danger Will Robinson?"
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Pro L, it's because we're ... old.
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Yes, but these are classic references.
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Yabba Dabba Don't.
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The 'negative waves, Moriarty' is a classic, timeless phrase. I've used it all my professional career.
It always works well when someone bitches at me about the fries not being hot enough.
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Reflecting an exchange between Donald Sutherland and Murray Slaughter/Captain Stubing.
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Ah yes, what do Moynihan, Young, and Totten think about the Arab Spring? After all, they were so perceptive about Iraq.
Jesus fucking Christ.
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I guess the guys in the picture are not the experts. But where's Cathy Young? Listening to Michael Young gas about the Arab Spring is not my idea of a good time. Sorry, I can't imagine anyone reading this article.
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I see the Arab spring the same way I see the Seattle Spring: It was snowing at my house yesterday. Snowing.
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In Seattle?
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Yep. Snowing. Fucking. Snowing.
I mean, it didn't stick, and it went from rain, to hail, to snow, back to hail, back to rain with high, icy winds all within a period of about 30 minutes. But that's Spring in Seattle. Summer is usually 55 and raining.
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Strange. It's 81° here. You know, spring.
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It's an unseasonably warm spring for us.
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Hot snow?
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To be specific it's 38* here.
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Turn on the A/C! Apply sunscreen!
Oh, you mean Fahrenheit, don't you?
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"However, that would turn liberatory uprisings into international conflicts, robbing the Arab peoples of the democratic initiative and making them mere spectators to their "liberation.""
As much as I think our inteverntion in Libya is incredibly dumb, I do not buy this particular argument for this case.
The U.S.A. would not have won its rebellion against Great Britain if it had not been for French aid, military advisers, and more importantly Naval Forces.
The American Revolutionaries actually made a lot of the same complaints about the slow, bumbling, nature of their French ally that the Libyans are making of us now. However, French warships were critical in preventing Cornwallis's escape from Yorktown.
More likely, if the rebels win they'll blame us for being us, rather than feel inadequate for having to ask for help.
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One can also note that not only did Louis XIV get the worst case of blowback in history, the fledging American nation was at (quasi-)war with France at the end of the following decade after Yorktown.
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'Movements for liberty and self-government are more likely to succeed when they're rooted in civic action from below rather than intervention from outside or above.'
This version of the argument is probably true, as it differentiates the Libyan Civil War from the toppling of Saddam through pure American military might.
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Of course to the extent that the Libyan uprising has failed, they are blaming us.
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Nice pic, looks like Rat Patrol has been perfectly colorized and converted to Blu-Ray! I don't see it on Amazon, though...
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But where are the cool Aussie hats?
Argh - is this another lame remake, like Hawaii 5-0? -
Who didn't love that show?
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Not me, but as a 10-year-old, "geopolitics" was not in my vocabulary.
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Something wrong with a boy-child who doesn't love Rat Patrol.
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I'm glad at least one of the writers supported military action to aid people fighting to overthrow dictators.
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."
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How about we just serve as an example of a stable, liberal, tolerant, prosperous society?
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