Russia Remains the Same
It will be business as usual in Moscow whether Obama apologizes or not.
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At this point, any major shift in U.S.-Russian relations is unlikely. With the effects of the economic crisis muted and oil prices up, Russia is in a less cooperative mood than in early spring (despite simmering problems that include possible social unrest and violence in the provinces of the Caucasus). This month, the Kremlin rejected proposals for missile defense cooperation with the United States as long as such plans included installations in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The hope that Russia could help resolve the Iranian nuclear problem amount to little more than wishful thinking. Russia's semi-friendship with Iran in recent years has been rooted primarily in a common adversarial relationship with the United States. If a more America-friendly Russia tried to pressure Iran, it would be unlikely to have leverage. While the Russians could stop providing Iran with technology, there are always alternatives like North Korea around.
The prospects for Obama's outreach encouraging liberalization in Russia are also doubtful, given the murky politics of the "tandemocracy." There have been credible reports of Putin-Medvedev friction; some Russian political analysts believe the presidency and the premiership now act as somewhat effective constraints on each other's powers, substituting for the normal checks and balances of democracy. But there is no clear-cut rivalry between an anti-Western hardliner and a pro-Western reformer in which the United States could throw its weight behind "the good guy."
One concern among critics of the Kremlin regime is that a too-accommodating stance by Obama will embolden a more aggressive Russian stance in the "near abroad." In a Grani.ru column, Hudson Institute fellow Adrian Piontkovsky warned of ominous signs that Moscow may be preparing for a second war in Georgia this summer. While NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine is off the table for now, given the two countries' internal problems, one hopes that Obama will send a strong message that U.S. commitment to their sovereignty is undiminished.
When all is said and done, perhaps the best-case scenario to be expected from Obama's Moscow trip is business as usual—and not too many apologies.
Cathy Young is a contributing editor at Reason magazine. This article originally appeared at The Weekly Standard.
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time.
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In that picture, Putin looks like the guy the KGB sends to your jail cell after you refuse to sign the confession outlining your crimes against the people. I guess that makes sense since at one time he really was that guy.
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He looks like Roy Scheider.
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If I remember the Gulag Archipelago right, John, that guy comes to see you long before you ever get a confession to sign.
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Why is Putin perpetually partially nekkid? No one wants tickets to that gun show, Vlad.
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Bullshit, Dagny. Every day, thousands of schoolgirls all across Russia pleasure themselves with empty vodka bottles while looking at that picture.
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Well at least he isn't making out with a ten year old boy's belly button in this picture.
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Obama's accommodating stance will simply enable more bad behavior
Look on the bright side: it can't go any worse than JFK's disastrous meeting with Khrushchev.
Can it? -
Ё, ёб Путинизм.
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So Im confused do we another Cold War?
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So Im confused do we another Cold War?
Did you accidentally a Coca Cola bottle? -
I'll be watching for the handshake. I'm thinking Obama will not be disrespected by Putin. Not publicly...
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Russia's interests being to a large degree counter to our own, I'm sure Obama will be deferential to their concerns and unwilling to defend ours and our allies'. For mysterious reasons, this seems to be his rule.
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C'mon, Putin's portrayal of Stanley Kowalski is worth discussing here.
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In Russia, muscles flex YOU!
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"... resentment over the loss of empire and superpower status, which has an element of populist pandering ... [and] self-preservation: The crony-capitalist junta that currently rules ... is fearful that democratic change could threaten its power."
Seems these guys have a lot to talk about. -
The pic reminds me of Barishnikov(sp) in that classic piece of cinema, "White Nights."
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We can only hope that he is Baryshnikov and that Gregory Hines will soon be there to help him escape to the West. With help from Isabella Rossellini, I'm sure.
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Stella! Stella!
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Is that a picture of Vladamir Poontang?
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Sayyyy...off-topic but: do you think we could get a little blog reaction on the San Diego helicopter police raid of the Busby fundraiser? It's really frightening, even in the no-knock militarized police force climate we live in now. Thanks!
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OK Alan, here's my little blog reaction:
BAD, mmkay -
He is going to be out-gamed and out gunned. A country that prides itself on tough leaders is going to laugh at him. Obama is weak like Ukraine. Putin is going to roll his ass like a new russian gangster or FSB agent tossing a report out a 20th floor window.
At least there will be 3 black people in Moscow instead of 2 when he is there. -
reporter out a window*
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hmmm:
-20 points for missing an opportunity to use the word defenestrate. Don't fuck with me again. -
I have the "Find your Russian beauty today" ad, of course.
The pic reminds me of Barishnikov(sp) in that classic piece of cinema, "White Nights."
Thanks so much for dredging that memory out, ben. Thanks a lot. -
Epi, you are very welcome. I aim to please.
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Episiarch,
Just think about Gregory Hines in History of the World: Part I. Let the vision get into your brain. -
Speaking of Gregory Hines, watch Running Scared!
You can watch the eventual President running coke in his youth. -
Gregory Hines is dead, ProL. It makes me sad. Though Running Scared is actually pretty good, even with Billy Crystal in it.
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I know he's dead. Work with me, dude.
I like Tap, too. But not that one movie he did which cannot be named. -
Eve of Destruction or Renaissance Man, ProL?
"I ain't no ox-moron"
SIGH -
Renaissance Man
Fuck you for making me remember that piece of crap. -
Warty, my evil plan has succeeded. Excellent. If I had to endure the pain of that piece of shit, SO DO YOU.
At least Danny DeVito has redeemed himself on Always Sunny. -
Thought experiment: imagine the horror if Renaissance Man starred Billy Crystal.
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Deal of the Century. Which I paid money to see!
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But ProL, he was in Wolfen!
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Sorry, can't comment. Wolfen tore the scream from my throat.
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-20 points for missing an opportunity to use the word defenestrate. Don't fuck with me again.
Sadly I must agree with the first half. A true failure on my part. Almost as bad as the time I was caught with a blow up sheep, a dead hooker, and a jar of Miracle Whip.
The last portion not so much on the agreeing. -
Yet the leftist fan boys and girls giggle and swoon over Obama's sucked-in abs and skinny man boobs.
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Putin would kick Obama's ass up between his goofy ears. Obama plays hood, Putin is a hood.
I hope he leaves Michelle home. I hate to be superficial (not really) but the competition in Russia as far as hot chicks goes is well above her level. We're talking sea level v. cruising altitude. -
This will not go well for The Obama. I'm sure Putin has long ago recognized what Americans are finally coming to see: that The Obama is an empty suit. Putin will mop the Kremlin floor with him and The Obama will be too dumb to realize it. But at least The Obama's personal photographers will be able to get some flattering photos for his Flickr.com page.
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Yo Epi, how are you coping with the impending Vicodin/Percocet ban:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/health/01fda.html?hp
A federal advisory panel voted narrowly on Tuesday to recommend a ban on Percocet and Vicodin, two of the most popular prescription painkillers in the world, because of their effects on the liver.
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The article didn't even mention Kosovo even after Russia invaded parts of Georgia as a visual display, since we seem to have a language barrier problem on this one.
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"Reset button"? No way. When you push "reset" you "save" everything that is worthwhile saving. This would not be "reset" but an abrupt power cut, pushing the "off" button.
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Seeing as how Russia is one of the countries in the world with anywhere near the military capability to mop the floor with the United States, I'm fully in favor of trying to have good relations with them. It also bears remembering that, at one point, Russia was an ally to the United States, in the fight against Hitler and his Nazi/Axis empire. Powerful ally, dangerous enemy, and a source of scientific and technical innovation and achievement in their own right.
Somehow, in the course of the Cold War, and the end of the Cold War period, we got onto a bad footing with Russia. There was Gorbachev, glasnost, perestroika, but there was also Stolichnaya, Afghanistan, and poverty. Russia hasn't exactly done too well, over the years, but in recent times, under Putin, and now Medvedyev, there are strong signs of promise, and there's also signs that some people are up to their old tricks and ambitions, and that last word is one that bears further study, because in these interesting times, anything less than a tempered, well-reasoned approach to policy is potentially an invitation to future problems, and even disaster. With our own economy trailing fire and smoke these days, it will be interesting to see if Russia will sort of be our wingman, or clap and laugh as we 'burn in'...because they once had something called 'The USSR', and nature hates a vacuum, and politics hates a power vacuum...
I am optimistic, though. I think that the 21st century has also brought a lot more people around the world to a place of greater understanding, people are more apt to seek to understand others instead of mercilessly taking advantage of them, and Russia may have some lessons to share with us about economic hard times and staging comebacks. Russia is a large country, with many resources, and a lot of influence in Asia, and is probably a better ally as in times of old than an enemy, but in either case is a force to be reckoned with and not just dismissively labeled. The other half of Apollo-Soyuz was from Russia... -
"a new Russian gangster or FSB agent"
As if there is a difference. -
Mr. Obama continues to strike me as uber naive with no grasp of history. He scares me. It used to be that I thought the most dangerous place on Earth was standing between Pelosi and Reid. No long. It's Obama who's in a rabid rush to capture attention. Somehow he strikes me as being insecure as well as jejeune.
He continues to move too fast on massive issues with no apparent understanding of economics, science or the vague possibility of actually representing voters' interests and views.
I am appalled that he is traveling overseas to 'improve America's image.' I don't give a rat's derriere if people like us or not. I do care about limited gov't or financial conservation. He seems to have bought into the MSM's view that science is settled regarding climate change. By definition, science is NEVER settled.
I remain baffled as to why CO2 is now considered a problem. To me the solution is simple. If all those who deeply believe in the religion of anthropogenic global warming would simply hold their collective breaths and not exhale just think how much CO2 would be prevented from reaching our perfectly healthy atmosphere.
As for Mr. Putin. Oh, dear. Obama is probably going to have a Bush moment and 'see into his heart.' Russia has been repressive for decades. It's economy is in shambles. Alcoholism, unemployment and rationed products are rife. This is not a good situation. -
Sorry. I meant to say that the most dangerous place to be is standing between Pelosi or Reid and a microphone or news camera.
Reminder to self -- preview comments. -
My only point is that if you take the Bible straight, as I'm sure many of Reasons readers do, you will see a lot of the Old Testament stuff as absolutely insane. Even some cursory knowledge of Hebrew and doing some mathematics and logic will tell you that you really won't get the full deal by just doing regular skill english reading for those books. In other words, there's more to the books of the Bible than most will ever grasp. I'm not concerned that Mr. Crumb will go to hell or anything crazy like that! It's just that he, like many types of religionists, seems to take it literally, take it straight...the Bible's books were not written by straight laced divinity students in 3 piece suits who white wash religious beliefs as if God made them with clothes on...the Bible's books were written by people with very different mindsets.
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is good