Unclenching the Fist

U.S.-Russian relations in the age of Obama

Cathy Young from the April 2009 issue

(Page 3 of 3)

The crisis also exposed the fakery of the Kremlin’s feel-good propaganda machine. While state-controlled television news initially avoided the word crisis—except with regard to the West—Russian citizens rushed to convert rubles to dollars.

In December, Russia heard the first rumblings of popular protest. An announcement of stiff new tariffs on imported used cars sparked rallies and demonstrations in Russia’s Far East, where importing used cars from Japan is a major source of livelihood. These protests quickly turned political, with signs that called for Putin’s resignation, urged Medvedev to “stop being a wimp,” and denounced United Russia as “bloodsuckers.” On December 21, a peaceful rally in Vladivostok was brutally broken up by the federal riot police; several journalists were among those beaten and arrested. While television news ignored the incident, many mainstream newspapers did not. Remarkably, several local legislatures in the Russian Far East backed the protesters’ demands.

Will the protests spread? In a Levada Center survey conducted in December, nearly a quarter of Russians said mass protests related to the drop in living standards were possible, and one in five said they themselves might participate. Economic hardships may also aggravate other problems, such as the tensions simmering in the Caucasus, where violence in hot spots such as Ingushetia and Dagestan has never abated.

Widespread unrest could lead to a state of emergency, perhaps with Medvedev stepping down and Putin returning to the Kremlin as de facto dictator. Another possible scenario is an attempt at state-managed liberalization, a strategy proposed in a December report by the Institute for Modern Development, a group of political experts whose board of trustees is headed by none other than Medvedev. Such a liberalization, which would likely require the resignation and scapegoating of Putin, could spin out of control into an “orange revolution”—or into a far darker scenario of descent into chaos or a totalitarian takeover.

U.S.-Russian Relations in the Age of Obama

Whatever Russia’s near-term path, the Obama administration will undoubtedly pursue cooperation right away in some areas, such as checking Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A review of missile defense plans could be in the works as well, though Russia’s crude attempt at missile-rattling blackmail makes an agreement in this area less likely.

A NATO membership track for Georgia and Ukraine is off the table at the moment. Unfortunately, given the way NATO expansion was framed under Putin, continuing to delay these countries’ possible inclusion is likely to be interpreted as a signal that they are fair game for Russian bullying. Moscow may have a legitimate interest in having friendly neighbors, but it has no more right to object to a government with an independent political course in Ukraine than Washington has to object to, say, a leftist government in Chile.

One way Obama might decide to neutralize the NATO expansion issue would be to revive the idea of future NATO membership for Russia itself, contingent on genuine democratic reforms. At the moment, the idea seems hopelessly utopian; but who knows whether it will still look that way in 2010? A Russia-enriched NATO presumably would focus its military priorities on anti-terrorist operations—or, perhaps, begin to evolve from a military alliance into a primarily political one. One potential danger of this scenario is that problems such as climate change could be redefined as “security threats,” setting the stage for a far-reaching push for international regulations.

The real challenge to the Obama administration will come if there are signs of change in Russia, especially if Putin is forced to resign and Medvedev emerges as the new leader with backing from one of the Kremlin factions. Washington could find itself having to decide whether to prop up a Russian government that declares itself pro-Western and liberal but has its roots in an authoritarian regime and an illegitimate election, or watch it fall to demands for a new election whose outcome might send Russia hurtling toward “red” or “brown” extremism. (Let’s not forget those nukes.)

The Putin-era backsliding toward autocracy has convinced many, both in Russia and in the West, that Russians are congenitally unfit for freedom and given to longing for empire and a czar. And indeed there are powerful strands of authoritarianism, imperialism, and nationalist paranoia in Russian society, and those elements have been assiduously cultivated by several yearsof official propaganda.

But many polls show that Russian anti-Americanism is fairly shallow. In most surveys, about two-thirds of Russians have said their attitude toward the United States is positive or mostly positive, except for spikes of negative attitudes at moments of tension between Moscow and Washington. While most Russians choose stability over democracy if they have to make a choice, majorities also favor a strong multiparty system, democratic elections, and a mixed economy that encourages the growth of small and medium-sized business.

From the vantage point of today, the incoming Obama administration has no way of knowing whether Putinism is but a detour on Russia’s road to freedom or the dominant direction of Russia’s future. Ultimately, that is only for Russians to decide. America’s role in the next few years will be to find a delicate balance: to support liberal values without appearing to dictate far-off events; to work with Russia when necessary while making it clear that a true partnership is possible only if Russia (in Obama’s words) “unclenches its fist” and renounces anti-Western, anti-liberal policy and rhetoric. The U.S. must simultaneously avoid the Yeltsin-era trap of entanglement with a corrupt and failing government and the Putin-era trap of supporting an increasingly authoritarian regime.

Cathy Young is the author of Growing Up in Moscow: Memories of a Soviet Girlhood (Ticknor & Fields).

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TofuSushi|3.13.09 @ 10:55AM|#

I hop president Obama learns some good lessons from them. He is on the right track, but just not going far enough.

BDB|3.13.09 @ 11:00AM|#

Putin may not last much longer if oil prices don't rise again.

|3.13.09 @ 11:05AM|#

Not current with internal Russian politics, BDB. Who is in a position to oust Putin?

BDB|3.13.09 @ 11:08AM|#

"Not current with internal Russian politics, BDB. Who is in a position to oust Putin?"

I have no clue but for the first time since he's been in power there are actual widespread protests against him.

The Russian people basically made a deal with the devil where they would put up with his authoritarian state if he would deliver economic growth. The latter part of that bargain is starting to slip.

I'm guessing a Soviet-style ousting where he goes on vacation then a group of higher-ups in the Russian government announce he "retired" for "health reasons".

Warty|3.13.09 @ 11:09AM|#

Damn, look at that hunk of man. The Russians' czar is way sexier than any of ours.

Spoonman|3.13.09 @ 11:22AM|#

The Russian people basically made a deal with the devil where they would put up with his authoritarian state if he would deliver economic growth. The latter part of that bargain is starting to slip.

The Chinese did too.
Now their economy slows.
Friday haikus live.

|3.13.09 @ 11:25AM|#

Vladimir Putin
Strongman of the new Russia
Has a hot girlfriend.

-jcr

ed|3.13.09 @ 11:25AM|#

(sigh)
Why won't our dictators pose with deadly weapons.
I don't mind confessing that if I saw a picture of Nancy Pelosi holding a Kalashnikov,
I'd get a woody.

Spoonman|3.13.09 @ 11:28AM|#

Getting a woody while thinking about Nancy Pelosi is a grave assault on the honor of woodies everywhere.

|3.13.09 @ 11:28AM|#

if I saw a picture of Nancy Pelosi holding a Kalashnikov,
I'd get a woody.

Ed,

I'm telling you this as a friend: seek professional help. There's a fine line between a fetish and a pathology, and that one's way off the curve.

-jcr

andy sullivan|3.13.09 @ 11:39AM|#

vladimir putin
has pecs like hot slavic god
him and barack.......uuunnnhh!

|3.13.09 @ 11:40AM|#

Am I the only one that can see Putin in vinyl, with a ball gag?

TofuSushi|3.13.09 @ 11:51AM|#

Thank you one and all.

I am now having a fantasy of Nancy Pelosi and Betty White calling me kitten after serving them breakfast.

BakedPenguin|3.13.09 @ 11:55AM|#

The Russians really pissed off a lot of europe with the natural gas fiasco. Even in countries like Bulgaria and Serbia, which are traditionally very pro-Russian.

Anyway, back to the homoerotic haiku.

Xeones|3.13.09 @ 12:04PM|#

brotherben, that says
More about you than Putin
Shorter answer: yes

ed|3.13.09 @ 12:08PM|#

I am now having a fantasy of Nancy Pelosi and Betty White calling me kitten after serving them breakfast.

Are they holding assault weapons?

TofuSushi|3.13.09 @ 12:09PM|#

ed,

No, my breakfast nook is a gun free zone.

ed|3.13.09 @ 12:12PM|#

Getting a woody while thinking about Nancy Pelosi is a grave assault

Come on. Tell me you haven't dreamt of Ole Nance in a pink teddy.

|3.13.09 @ 12:13PM|#

Reason commenters
Murder haiku like Putin
Murders dissenters

ed|3.13.09 @ 12:30PM|#

Nancy Pelosi
Speaker with low-hanging tits
Bent over, shoe fits

T|3.13.09 @ 12:30PM|#

Putin wears earmuffs
In a fashion new to me
His bald head must chafe

D.R.M.|3.13.09 @ 12:35PM|#

I see Ms. Young adopts the Russian narrative on Georgia, where Russia was reacting to the Georgians.

As a matter of logistics, the speed of the Russian "reaction" to Georgia indicates the Russians had already put an armored assault on Georgia into motion before the first Georgians entered South Ossetia. Further, this invasion would have been abundantly clear both on satellite and to human intelligence assets in Russia.

Which makes the whole thing abundantly clear. Georgia would certainly have known Russia was invading. Its military actions were clearly focused on seizing the passes through the Caucasus before Russia could send its armor through, and neutralizing Russian "peacekeepers" already in S. Ossetia. Georgia failed to achieve those objectives in its available reaction time, and Russia's invasion went through successfully.

If the Russian invasion hadn't been started before the Georgians entered South Ossetia, the Russian armored units would have taken at least 24 more hours to reach the passes, which would have been consolidated by the Georgians by then.

In terms of propaganda, of course, it would have been a lot easier to show the Russians were the aggressors if Georgia hadn't tried to stop the Russians from invading. Of course, Saakashvili would deserve all the abuse he's gotten if he'd not even tried to stop a Russian invasion in exchange for a mere propaganda advantage.

|3.13.09 @ 12:35PM|#

Hillary Clinton
All who saw her camel toe
Were awed by its size

|3.13.09 @ 1:05PM|#

I knew sage sounded familiar...

sage | March 16, 2007, 4:10pm | #
Straight? Try Hillary
All who saw her camel toe
Were awed by its size

VM | March 16, 2007, 4:11pm | #
Noam the blow up doll
for humping and fond'ling libs
heather has two moms.

JimmyDaGeek | March 16, 2007, 4:12pm | #
You all perturb me
With your corn syrup and Noam.
I pass on offer.

crimethink | March 16, 2007, 4:12pm | #
Haikus about old
women's private parts not right
They sicken reader

|3.13.09 @ 1:13PM|#

OK, I repeat
Way too much time on your hands
To find stuff that old

|3.13.09 @ 1:16PM|#

Vision of Hil-Dogg
Seered into long-term mem'ry
google is my friend

Mad Ivan|3.13.09 @ 1:20PM|#

Time to de-troll again...

D.R.M. -- It's nice to see Ms. Young adapting a more reasonablу position than previous hysterical screams about Russians "invading" Georgia.

Of course had they actually invaded Georgia, Saakishvili would not still be its president... But then arguing with anyone who still believes the "Russia invaded" canard is probably useless...

|3.13.09 @ 1:24PM|#

I agree, crimethink
Google is a handy tool
Don't try image search

economist|3.13.09 @ 1:30PM|#

"I don't mind confessing that if I saw a picture of Nancy Pelosi holding a Kalashnikov,
I'd get a woody."

*backs slowly away*

|3.13.09 @ 2:00PM|#

Of course had they actually invaded Georgia, Saakishvili would not still be its president...

Funny, the British invaded the US in 1812, but Madison remained president.

Yackov|3.13.09 @ 2:07PM|#

"Am I the only one that can see Putin in vinyl, with a ball gag?"

In Soviet Union, ball gags you!

Andy\'s Dick|3.13.09 @ 2:09PM|#

"No, my breakfast nook is a gun free zone."

Then your breakfast guests aren't really that safe, are they?

Teddy Kennedy|3.13.09 @ 2:10PM|#

"Come on. Tell me you haven't dreamt of Ole Nance in a pink teddy."

She has never pegged me. She has never been more than a friend.

|3.13.09 @ 2:44PM|#

Tell me you haven't dreamt of Ole Nance in a pink teddy.

for sure
A leather teddy, a pink leather teddy
gag me with a spoon

Mad Ivan|3.13.09 @ 4:04PM|#

Crimethink -- there's a bit of a difference in relative strength here... and Brits did burn Washington down, while Russians didn't even march on Tbilisi.

|3.13.09 @ 4:19PM|#

the point is, Ivan, that any armed incursion inside the territory of another country without the permission of that country's government is an invasion. Removing the leader of that country (your previous criterion), burning down the capital (your current criterion) are not necessary.

|3.13.09 @ 4:43PM|#

I think that's a Makarov in Putin's paw.
Classic symbol of the Postwar Soviet military.
Not accidental, I assume.

|3.13.09 @ 4:44PM|#

Perhaps best thread evah...

BTW, anyone know why VP's wearing his hearing protectors upside down? Not that it matters, since they work either way but it looks dorky to use the headband as a chin-strap, and it's not like he's going to muss his hair.

guy in the back row|3.13.09 @ 5:09PM|#

Am I the only one that can see Putin in vinyl, with a ball gag?

I'm sure his Mistress sees him that way two to four times a month.

Mad Ivan|3.13.09 @ 5:19PM|#

Unless, of course, that other country being "incursed" started by shelling your peacekeepers in a disputed territory. Then it is self-defense.

Whether Saakishvili was tricked into starting it, and by whom, is another matter.

ed|3.13.09 @ 5:20PM|#

Don't try image search

That search is my friend.
Vanna White. Many poses.
She's embarrassed. Heh.

ed|3.13.09 @ 6:24PM|#

Yackov | March 13, 2009, 2:07pm | #

"Am I the only one that can see Putin in vinyl, with a ball gag?"

Substitute Putin for Pelosi and no, you are not alone.
Is that so wrong?

ed|3.14.09 @ 3:01PM|#

I guess it was. Way wrong.

nick|3.14.09 @ 3:06PM|#

This article is by now a rather aged and redundant piece of anti-Russian media noise. Its a brave new world out there, and the good old "west-nice, Putin-bad" mantra makes me sigh. Nato expanded because Russia was supposed to join... come on! It seems just like the army generals always prepare to fight yesterdays war, most pundits prefer to drone on the old propaganda instead of daring to peak whats around the corner. How to do it? Simple. The basic rules are always the same. Geopolitics and international power struggles generate political will and channel the media into predictable populist formats. The soft power is exercised through think tanks, other institutions and us common folk chatting
and trying to convince each other. I dont think this kind of thinking is cynical. Pretending like those power mechanisms dont exist and writing articles such as above, thats cynical for sure.

LarryA|3.14.09 @ 5:33PM|#

I don't mind confessing that if I saw a picture of Nancy Pelosi holding a Kalashnikov,
I'd get a woody.

I don't remember one of Pelosi, but how about Dianne Feinstein?

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