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Reason RSSThis niche market is constantly under threat. In 2007, an opposition website was fined 20,000 rubles (about $820) for publishing an article that referred to Putin as “Russia’s phallic symbol.” In December, New Times reporter Natalia Morari—a Moldovan citizen with legal residency in Russia who has written several articles exposing corruption—was unexpectedly denied re-entry to the country following a trip to Israel, on unspecified “national security” grounds.
And yet, in this semi-autonomous space, surprises still abound. For instance:
• In November, the political satirist Shenderovich held a solitary protest on a Moscow street with a “Free Gary Kasparov!” sign. (Under Russian law, lone protests, unlike group events, can be held without official authorization.) After politely declining a police request to leave, Shenderovich was suddenly joined by a smirking young man armed with an opposition party sign—which immediately turned his legal one-man protest into unlawful assembly. As both were hustled into a police car, the young man unabashedly admitted that he was a plant. After a few hours at the police precinct, Shenderovich was released (but not before signing autographs for the cops). In January, the case against him ended in acquittal.
• Petrovskaya’s scathing Izvestia review of the Putin birthday tribute, initially killed by the editors, was eventually allowed to run (albeit paired with an opposing viewpoint) after the story was discussed on Echo of Moscow and picked up by liberal websites such as Grani.ru.
• The open letter begging Putin to stay for another term “in the name of Russia’s art community” brought forth a public backlash from other artists, including the popular singer and Duma member Iosif Kobzon. On October 25, the NTV channel’s debate program At the Bar had Mikhalkov square off against writer Venedikt Yerofeyev, who castigated the filmmaker for encouraging Putin to violate the constitution and addressing him in servile terms more befitting a sultan than a democratically elected president. When a testy Mikhalkov asked, “Who told you I’m promoting a personality cult?” Yerofeyev shot back, “I’m telling you.” Three of the four in-studio judges declared Mikhalkov the winner, but the viewer call-in vote went for Yerofeyev, 90,000 to 52,000.
Writing on Grani.ru, the columnist Adrian Piontkovsky argued that the program may have been a small but important turning point in Russia’s political life. The independent-minded portion of society found its voice and spoke against the “government-fostered little personality cult” of Putin. It’s hard to say whether this popular reaction, along with the tepid landslide of December 2, had anything to do with Putin’s decision not to seek a third term. Notably, too, the essay advocating Putin’s confirmation as “national leader” was removed from United Russia’s website after a chorus of pointed criticism. (In another curious development, the Nashi youth organization, built largely around Putin worship, underwent a rapid decline by the end of 2007. Its rallies thinned, and its loss of official favor was evident when it attempted to picket the European Commission offices in Moscow to protest the denial of travel visas to some of its activists. The demonstration ended with police intervention and arrests.)
Russian civil society, then, may not be as dead as it seems. And Russia’s repressive machine, despite its petty viciousness, is far from reopening the gates of the gulag.
Wishing for a Better Czar
What will
happen to Putin’s machine as he formally leaves office? There is
little doubt that it will be used, if necessary, to ensure an
uneventful succession. Already, Kasparov has been denied the
opportunity to register his presidential bid because the initiative
group for his nomination was unable—apparently due to
behind-the-scenes government pressure—to lease a space to hold the
nomination conference by the registration deadline. At press time,
it appears that the other leading opposition candidate, Putin’s
former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, will be disqualified from
running, on the grounds of allegedly invalid signatures on his
nominating petitions (though in any case, his chances of winning
were only theoretically above zero). In Russia, the introduction of
Dmitry Medvedev as “the next president” is not merely a figure of
speech, as it is in America. Every Russian journalist assumes that
the election results are a foregone conclusion, with a “play
communist” and a “play liberal” joining Medvedev on the ballot
merely for decency’s sake.
But what then? Putin has vowed, more than once, that there will be no redistribution of power from the presidency to the office of prime minister. No one knows whether to take him at his word. It is widely believed that Medvedev was picked because he is a Putin protégé who will be easily controlled by his former boss. Yet a number of Russian commentators suggest there may come a day when even the “good boy” Medvedev will realize that real power is now in his hands to use as he pleases.
Many liberals are at least somewhat encouraged by this situation. They anticipate the growth of a dual power structure, an unwieldy beast with its loyalties divided between Putin and Medvedev. Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin argues that at the very least, under a Medvedev/Putin (or Putin/Medvedev) regime, different interest groups within the state-corporate leviathan will solidify into competing factions that unwittingly act as checks and balances on each other. Still others speculate that Putin is not interested in maintaining an active role in Russian politics and wants to stay close to the center of power only to avoid being tossed to the wolves in case the economy falters and the new government needs a scapegoat.
Some dissidents even suggest that Medvedev is, in the words of the columnist and radio commentator Yulia Latynina, the “best of successors”—the standard-bearer, perhaps, of Putinism with a human face. In the past, Medvedev has cautiously voiced concern about the government’s assault on the YUKOS oil company (owned by Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky), and has criticized the aforementioned concept of “sovereign democracy.” He is also one of the few men in Putin’s inner circle who does not have a KGB background. Medvedev belongs, Latynina notes hopefully, to a different, post-Soviet generation. (Of course, no one knows how that will play out. The political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky cautions that Medvedev may take steps to curb political speech on the Internet because, unlike the older-generation Putin, he understands the Web’s power and relevance.)
So three months before the presidential election, Russian liberals were reduced to hoping, yet again, for a better Czar—or for a good-Czar/bad-Czar system whose inherent tensions may cause the authoritarian regime to collapse upon itself. Yet there may also be some other checks on the Russian state, from the elites’ desire for acceptance by the West to the small and battered voice of Russia’s own civil society. Post-Communist Russian democracy, like Communism itself, is dead. The authoritarian system that has risen on its wreckage is not a pretty sight. But there are still signs of life.
Contributing Editor Cathy Young is the author of
Growing Up in Moscow: Memories of a Soviet Girlhood (Ticknor &
Fields).
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