Jonathan Rauch | November 5, 2007
In America, politics is usually like the weather, changing from
day to day in ways that are often capricious, rarely meaningful,
but always useful as fodder for unproductive conversation. Besides,
everyone complains about politics, but no one does anything about
it. Once in a while, however, the political climate changes.
Long-standing patterns shift in ways that alter the weather for
decades, not just days. Something like that may be happening now.
Consider, by way of a barometer, this graph:

Not many polling questions have been asked continuously for more than five decades, and fewer still remain as revealing today as they ever were. One such rarity is this question, which the Gallup Organization has asked in most (not all) years since 1951:
"Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous?"
This is the granddaddy of political polling questions not just because it is venerable but because it has earned its keep. If you had to pick only one political indicator as the most fundamental of all, this would be a good choice—because, to a first approximation, the party of prosperity is the default majority party.
The chart begins in 1951, when Harry Truman was president, and it shows how decisively the Depression and New Deal had bestowed "party of prosperity" status on the Democrats. Only occasionally did the Republicans even touch them. The Democrats' prosperity advantage seemed to be their birthright, part of the natural order of things, unlikely to be challenged or changed. Even well into the 1970s, as stagflation set in, few Democrats foresaw the trouble ahead.
That trouble arrived in the person of Ronald Reagan, whose greatest political achievement was to seize prosperity for the Republicans. He knew what he was doing when he made famous the phrase, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" By the time he was finished, Reagan had exorcised Herbert Hoover's ghost. Now it was the Democratic Party, once seemingly synonymous with modern economic management, that seemed inept and obsolete.
A recession and a bumbling Republican campaign nonetheless helped put a Democrat in the White House in 1993, and the succeeding eight years brought the Democrats news both good and bad. The good news was that a turbocharged economy lifted them back to parity. The bad news was that a turbocharged economy lifted them only to parity. Perhaps the memory of stagflation was too fresh in the public's mind; perhaps divided government muddied the picture. For whatever reason, by the time George W. Bush took office, the Democrats had not made the sale. The country had no party of prosperity.
Seeing opportunity, Bush set out to recapture and fortify Reagan's redoubt. His weapon was tax cuts—large and aggressive ones. That, plus five years of economic growth, should have pleased the public.
The results? Devastating. Crushing. Not only did Bush and his party fail to make the sale, the public slammed the door in their faces. Just why is hard to say. Worries about economic insecurity, and the failure of the median household income (adjusted for inflation) to rise during the Bush years, undoubtedly played a part. Bush's personal unpopularity and the public's displaced anger over the Iraq war may also figure.
In any case, by September 2006, Democrats had opened up a 17-point lead on prosperity. This September, the gap widened to 20 points, confirming that the change was no fluke. Democrats enjoy a lead on prosperity whose like they have not seen in a generation.
The prosperity gap is best viewed not as the jaws of oblivion for the Republicans but as a window of opportunity for the Democrats, because the public is more angry at Republicans than sold on Democrats. Anti-Republican sentiment, of course, is likely to do the Democrats some good in next year's election, but it is mere weather, likely to be transient. To change the climate, the Democrats need to own prosperity for years, not months.
Winning the presidency and keeping the economy healthy would be essential, but even that, as Bush's case shows, may be insufficient. Democrats also need a prosperity narrative: a compelling story about why the public can better trust them to make the economy flourish.
The Democrats' postwar narrative was Keynesianism: By managing demand, the government would balance the economy instead of the budget. Reagan's narrative was supply-side: He would reignite stagnating productivity by reducing tax rates, deregulating, and shrinking a bloated public sector. Bill Clinton preached fiscal responsibility and globalization, a program that succeeded economically but lacked staying power politically, partly because Al Gore seemed to repudiate it.
Bush adopted the supply-side story, but in a primitive form in which tax cuts, deregulation, and smaller government became tax cuts, tax cuts, and tax cuts. The public has responded with something between indifference and contempt, leaving Republicans without a leg to stand on.
As for the Democrats, they have an audience. For the first time since the Great Society era, the public is receptive to a Democratic prosperity narrative, even eager for one. What the party does not have, yet, is the narrative.
Various bits and pieces are in circulation. Fix health care. Improve income security. Restrict trade. Raise taxes on the rich. Democrats hope to speak to middle-class America's feelings of economic vulnerability, which is probably the right tree to bark up. But while some Democrats strike notes of class resentment, others seem to blame foreigners. No candidate has found a package and a tone that tell a story not primarily about populism or nationalism but about prosperity: raising the tide to lift all boats.
A prosperity narrative does not need to be conceptually elegant. It merely needs to be more right than wrong economically and in touch with the times politically, as Keynesianism and Reaganism were. What became known as Reaganomics was in fact a messy pastiche of Republican remedies old (tight money, fiscal restraint) and new (tax cuts, entrepreneurship) that Reagan assembled over the course of his 1980 campaign. The pieces hung together only inasmuch as they suited the candidate and his time—but that was what counted.
It may be that the Democrats will not find a prosperity story next year. Still, the potential for climate change is there. As Reagan exorcised Hoover's ghost, so the way appears open for the Democrats to exorcise Jimmy Carter's—and to haunt Republicans with the shade of George W. Bush.
© Copyright 2007 National Journal
Jonathan Rauch is a senior writer and columnist for National Journal and a frequent contributor to Reason. The article was originally published by National Journal.
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Probably doesn't help the Republicans that they've been spending like Paris Hilton on crack for the past eight years, either.
"Reagan's narrative was supply-side: He would reignite
stagnating productivity by reducing tax rates, deregulating, and
shrinking a bloated public sector."
That may have been his narrative, but his actions belied it. Both
Reagan and his imitator George W. Bush jumpstarted economic growth
the old-fashioned way, through massive deficit spending. Reagan cut
a few domestic programs--only those helping at the bottom of the
economic ladder, of course--while giving enormous increases to
defense. Bush, more even handed, increased spending all around. The
real "secret" of supply-side economics, as sold by Jack Kemp,
Reagan, and now Bush, is that deficits don't matter, so that
Republicans can say "yes" as often as Democrats. So far, the
deficits haven't caught up with us. And why fix the roof when the
sun is shining?
Not the either party can really claim to be the party of
prosperity, I suppose, but why has the claim to this title "fallen"
from the Republicans?
The economy has had a heck of nice run under Bush, really. You
couldn't tell from listening to the news, of course, but
fundamentals have been quite healthy since the recovery from the
9/11 shock.
Both Reagan and his imitator George W. Bush jumpstarted
economic growth the old-fashioned way, through
massive deficit spending.
Keynesianism has become the "conventional wisdom". Beautiful.
The only way I can look at this is a positive light is that I
hope the following scenario takes place.
Bush continues to spend...
Next Prez spends...
Government falls into massive debt...
Following Prez forced to sell off large amounts of government land
when debts come due...
?????????...
Profit!
R C Dean,
I guess it depends which fundamentals you are talking about.
The budget and trade deficits are massive and growing.
The money supply is growing at about 14% per year, which is truly
catastrophic. It is the inflation of the money supply that has
inflated the real estate and asset bubbles. All of this is coming
home to roost as we speak. Savers have been decapitated by negative
real returns on their savings, which has led to a negative US
savings rate. The government has phonied up the numbers regarding
inflation and job growth.
The government has phonied up the numbers regarding
inflation and job growth.
Don't forget that they changed the methodology for calculating
unemployment, too.
And this whole time, you thought we were stable at 4.5-5%
unemployment, with no major change, for 6 years?
Ha!
Taktix,
After watching the government lie about inflation, I don't trust
any of their published statistics. If you dig in to the methodology
behind the numbers, you come away realizing that the numbers say
whatever is handy for the government.
By the way, I don't blame Bush for this, or absolve him. He is part
of it, but the whole elected government really ought to be tossed
out on their ears. They won't be, of course.
BTW, it looks like another massacre day is brewing for Wall
street, courtesy of the "credit crisis", which is a direct result
of the inflation in the money supply.
Oh, and congratulations to Ron Bailey (I think) who so presciently
predicted that $40.00 oil was imminent just a few months ago. Good
call, Ron. We might see $70.00 oil again (momentarily), but $100
oil is a lead-pipe cinch, and soon.
split government is clearly the party of prosperity. look at the record. vote schizo in '08!
We might see $70.00 oil again (momentarily), but $100 oil is
a lead-pipe cinch, and soon.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
- Plato
If the money supply is inflating so fast, where's it going? I think they're pumping up a leaky balloon.
Boy, I'm so glad Jonathan Rauch gets his work reproduced here. I was confused in thinking that what would be best for this country would be a party promoting far-out ideas like free markets and free minds, but what we really need is for the Democrats to tell us how they are better at managing the economy than the Republicans. Thanks, Mr. Rauch.
"If the money supply is inflating so fast, where's it going? I
think they're pumping up a leaky balloon."
It is going to the production arm of the US, China, India, Japan,
Germany. They recycle most of it back to the US to buy Treasury
bonds, which depresses the interest rate paid on the Tbonds. This
creates "cheap" money, which inflates assets (stocks, real estate,
etc).
This cycle is ending as we speak, I think.
you guys need to post on this thread more often, and more quickly. This subject interests me.
The Reason staff seems to have sold their souls to high taxes.
It is interesting how an alleged Libertarian magazine could think a
party that makes no secret about its desire to tax the most
productive members of society could "take the mantle of
prosperity". At best this article is a typical no substance horse
race kind of story you can get from any media outlet, the "here is
how one side can win" kind of story that says nothing about which
side should win, and at worst it is an implicit endorsement of
taxing the rich.
Why is it Reason, in their new found love of the Democratic Party,
has completely lost the freedom aspect of taxation? The government
taxing you is the most directly coercive attack on your freedom
that it does, short of arresting you. The government is taking
money that rightly belongs to its citizens. Yes some of that is
necessary because we do need a government. But there is a real
moral issue to it. Until the government can justify every dime that
it is spending now, it has no right to raise taxes one dime.
Instead of taking the pro-freedom view, Reason seems to look at the
budget deficit and debt and conclude that the obvious answer is for
the government to steal more of the people's money to make up the
short fall. That is just sad for a magazine that purports to be
"libertarian".
I really think the Reason foundation, if it is to be effective,
needs to move out of Washington and LA and out to like Topeka or
Wyoming or somewhere. Take the whole lot of them and get them the
hell off of the coast and away from the lefty friends where they
can start to think clearly again. If you pay attention to the
magazine, it has over the last seven years or so become more and
more liberal conventional wisdom and less and less subversive and
less and less pro freedom. To Reason freedom only means the drug
war and worrying about the CIA listening to their phone
conversations. Yeah, that is part of it but there is a lot more to
it than that. Too bad they don't realize that anymore.
What this country really needs is a Weimar Democrat in the White House, apparently.
4 Drinks right?
3 variations of "for a magazine called reason" or "for a supposedly
libertarian magazine"
and 1 drink for a variation of "you guys are just shills for the
democrat/ or republicans"
John,
As a veteran of this forum, it is polite to preclude a drinking
offense with a warning or an apology or something. I think that is
the proper etiquette.
kwais,
Actually I think there was a variation of the Virginal Postrel
offense in there as well.
Kwais,
Forgive me for not knowing what the hell you are talking about. The
bottom-line is the Reason staff needs to be incessantly reminded
what freedom really means. They rarely post about gun rights or low
taxes and their idea of being concerned about limited government is
occasionally giving Ron Paul a tongue bath and accusing Republicans
of spending too much. They rarely have much to say about
affirmative action or equal protection identity politics issues.
They do okay on nanny state kind of stuff. I wouldn't call them
shills for either party as much as being intellectually lazy and
too eager to fall into mainstream media conventional wisdom.
I am serious about moving the lot of them to Topeka or somewhere.
If they are not around the conventional wisdom they are less likely
to fall into it. Further, I think to work there you should have to
own a gun and a conceal and carry permit. I find that gun ownership
is not always but often is to be the best test of whether someone
really is pro freedom or not.
Also, since when it is a drinking offense to kick around Reason
when they do stupid things like write articles that praise high
taxes as the way to prosperity? Is this a magazine or a cult? If I
want to know the virtues of high taxes and how the Democrats are
going to steal more of my money to bring me prosperity, I will read
Slate or listen to Joe.
I thought Reason was supposed to be an alternative to all of that.
My mistake I guess.
The great irony of the article's title is that real median income for individual working Americans peaked in 1978 during the presidency of .... Jimmy Carter. Sorry to intrude on the narritive.
Also, since when it is a drinking offense to kick around
Reason when they do stupid things like write articles that praise
high taxes as the way to prosperity?
Its not so much content as form that constitutes a drinking
offense.
The great irony of the article's title is that real median
income for individual working Americans peaked in 1978 during the
presidency of .... Jimmy Carter.
Sigh. Only if you don't include things like benefits and the
intangible increase in purchasing power driven by technology.
One of the reasons employers are constrained in raising wages is
because the cost of health insurance eats up a big chunk of their
global compensation budget.
When Reason moved its offices to DC many worried that its independence would be slowly digested in the belly of the beast. When Nick took over the mag his editorial promised more pop culture stories, less policy. With the addition of H&R this seems to have come to fruition. Not that there isn't something worthy to be found here daily. But I would agree with John that as a whole, the enterprise has gotten less serious and more pessimistic in its outlook.
"Sigh. Only if you don't include things like benefits and the
intangible increase in purchasing power driven by
technology."
Very true. My sibblings make less money, accounting for inflation,
than my father did. Yet, my nieces and nephews seem to have a much
better standard of living than we did growing up. The idea of
having two or three color TVS, a car phone and taking a yearly
vacation to somewhere far away like Florida was pretty much out of
question when I was growing up. We were not poor by any means
things were just expensive back then.
"When Nick took over the mag his editorial promised more pop
culture stories, less policy. "
I don't mind the culture stuff. I wouldn't bash Nick for that. But
I think the policy stuff has suffered. This article is a good
example of that. It is just a horserace article. You can get that
anywhere.
H&R:The Reason Foundation::
The Daily Show::Viacom
Jesus, lighten up Francis('es)
Just why is hard to say.
It's only "hard to say" for people who deliberately blind
themselves to the rather obvious fact that aggregate GDP numbers
don't tell the whole story.
When your health insurance costs rise faster than your salary
without your health care improving, you're worse off economically -
even if you want to count the rising cost of exactly the same
health insurance as an increase in total compensation.
When your salary isn't rising, it doesn't matter how much top 1%
wealth increases boost the overall numbers - you're not doing any
better.
Conservative economic policies fail utterly to account for either
of these factors, and that's why people don't trust them to bring
prosperity.
Wow, the conservatarians on this thread are shooting more messengers than Uday Hussein.
Just let Joe have a large share of your money. He is just the messanger afterall. Him and the good folks at the Reason foundation will know what to do with it better than you. Get out your wallet and move along here. Nothing to see here.
If only the American people were as smart as you, John.
This is why democracy doesn't work, right?
"When your salary isn't rising, it doesn't matter how much top
1% wealth increases boost the overall numbers - you're not doing
any better."
So the solution Joe is for the government to steal the money from
the top 1% and give it to you? That is really what is going on here
isn't it? You don't like the results of the market so therefore,
you take money from people who have done well and give it to people
who haven't. Now of course who gets the money is usually determined
by who can give the most money to someone like John Murtha, but we
will ignore that for a minute. That is really the core of your
philosophy isn't it? That whenever someone does well, the
government should take a large and increasing percentage of what
they have and give it to everyone else? I wasn't aware that was
what Libertarians were selling but I guess I am out of touch.
There you have it, folks.
When wealth becomes increasingly concentrated, it's "the
functioning of the market."
You can tell it's the functioning of the market BECAUSE it produces
greater inequallity.
Yes, John, because you believe this, you are deeply, deeply out of
touch - not just with the values of the majority of Americans, but
with the reality of how our economy functions.
"The Democrats' postwar narrative was Keynesianism...."
And George W Peron has overseen a fabulous Keynseian expansion of
government spending; ought we to assume Mr Rauch is thinking:
"Right policies, wrong President?"
I don't know what the Democrats should run as, but I'm still
baffled by how Republicans have run.
2000: Things have never been better. Vote for change!
2004 : Things have never been worse. Stay the course!
WTF?
Noticing that the Democrats economic message is more popular
than the Republicans is not an endorsement of their policies.
It shouldn't be necessary to point this out, but I guess it is.
Any poll question that asks which party is more trusted to
create prosperity is actually a reflection of the economic
ignorance of both the pollers and the responders.
Political parties in particular and governments in general never
created the economy in the first place. And they certainly have
never engineered a "prosperous" one.
The private sector creates the economy and it is the private sector
that enables government to exist at all in the first place and not
the other way around.
The very first dollar that government ever spent on anything came
from a tax on wealth that had already been created by the private
sector. The same is true for the last dollar government has spent
and every single one in between.
Huh?
I really don't see democrats asking "Are you better of today then
you were 4 years ago" and it catching many takers.
2000: Things have never been better. Vote for change!
2004 : Things have never been worse. Stay the course!
Economy was heading to recession in 2000 and in 2004 it had
recovered.
Its about the currency, stupid. The boom in stock prices was
fueled by inflationary subsidies to the markets (cash injections is
what they usually call it).
Blue collar people who save their money in cash saw their savings
slowly dwindle while the top third ran away with the stocks. In
terms of the well being of the middle class, all the tax cuts in
the world cannot cover up failed monetary policy.
joshua-
Fair enough, the economy was headed to recession in 2000. But that
wasn't apparent to a lot of voters.
In 2004, the message was "Your lives are in mortal peril! Stay the
course!" Do you see the problem with that?
Doesn't "headed for recession" mean "at the high point in the
busines cycle" - i.e., "very good economic conditions that have
persisted for a long time?"
Because all the indicators were still pointing north in 2000. In
the Spring of 2001, Bush was still selling his tax cut on the
grounds of the overheated, strong economy providing a huge
surplus.
As far as ballanced budgets go, part of being free and remaining that way is being responsible. I would prefer to see a much smaller government, but the long term prospertity of the US is dependant on getting the national debt under control.
I don't know what the Democrats should run as, but I'm still baffled by how Republicans have run.
2000: Things have never been better. Vote for change!
2004 : Things have never been worse. Stay the course!
WTF?
Easy: Al Gore and John Kerry
Doesn't "headed for recession" mean "at the high point in
the busines cycle" - i.e., "very good economic conditions that have
persisted for a long time?"
So, joe, would you say we are headed for a recession right now?
;-)
Can the Democrats Own Prosperity?
Democrats don't believe in private ownership of prosperity.
Alan V:
You've way oversimplified Reagan's economic policies to help to fit
them into a keynsian model. Reagan cut the marginal tax rate
dramatically. Yes, the marginal tax rate had a lot of room to be
cut, unlike the cuts that GWB has taken.
This cycle is ending as we speak, I think.
Wayne, let me help you with your economic speak. You're almost
there. Allow me:
The cycle is ending, we believe, unless it's not.
Work on that, and you'll be a real "short term outlook"
economist.
RC Dean,
I don't know. We used to be on an upswing, as the real economy
recovered from the 2001 recession, but the fallout from this
sub-prime mortgage imposion, which is even more widespread because
of the mortgages being sold off as derivitives which got trades,
threatens to send us into a recession.
RC,
I guess, in a sense, that puts us at the top of the economic cycle
right now. ;-)
"Yes, John, because you believe this, you are deeply, deeply out
of touch - not just with the values of the majority of Americans,
but with the reality of how our economy functions."
Yeah so the values of America are the politics of envy and taking
from those who are most productive? Perhaps where you live Joe but
you establish pretty much every day that you don't get out much or
have any idea how anyone outside of yourself actually thinks.
More importantly, just what the hell are your values? Why is it
that 18% of every dollar produced in this country is not enough to
run a federal government? In addition, why is it that we cannot
achieve "prosperity" by taking only 40% of every dollar in this
country (if you count state and local taxes)? What is going to be
the proper amount of taxes to achieve prosperity? 60% 80% 100%? The
US economy and those modeled on it continually outperform central
planed higher tax economies. We had your style of government in the
1970s, through high tax; high regulation policies and we got 10
years of stagflation to show for it.
I put this issue in moral terms because for you it is obviously a
moral issue. You wouldn't throw around bullshit terms like "values
of the American people" if it wasn't. Whether it be on here or on
the other thread talking about how Americans buy what they are told
to, you hate the idea of someone being successful without your's or
the government's help. You either believe in freedom or you don't.
The most basic freedom any of us have is the right to make an
honest living and enjoy the fruits of that living. Taxes are a
basic but necessary affront to that freedom. They may be necessary
but they are still an affront. Your undying belief in that
government has an absolute right to whatever portion of its
citizen's income it deems necessary to ensure "prosperity" makes
you anti-freedom. Put simply, you cannot be a liberal in the
classical sense much less a libertarian if you believe in high
taxes. If you believe in high taxes you are just a socialist trying
to hide your stripes.
Yawn. Labels are a poor substitute for thought, John.
Just keep telling the majority of America how stupid and lazy they
are. That's a great way to keep your ideas from sinking further
into the swamp.
I can't for the life of me figure out what John and joe are
arguing about, or that John is trying to argue to joe.
John, life is short, much too short to spend arguing with people
who are fine with aggressing against you. Bashing your head against
the Wall Of Joe is irrational.
John, Nasikabatrachus is right.
Joe is a pragmatist masquerading as a principled thinker.
He's sort of like Dan T. without the skirt.
Don't bother with him. The fucking prick was a government
planner not long ago. That should tell you enough about his
lust for control and power.
This poll shows the massive danger of Populism and Pure
Democracy that the founding fathers tried so hard to avoid.
Low Voter Turnout is a GOOD THING. More of it would keeps the
Statists from taking over.
Jamie Kelly,
I don't think you got my point. My point was to get us to not waste
our lives arguing with evil people in clearly unenjoyable debates.
I say that I don't think you got my point because your caustic
comment seems as much directed at joe, if not more so, than towards
John.
"You shouldn't argue with people whose politics are different than yours" is surely the signo of an honest and confident thinker.
"You shouldn't argue with people whose politics are
different than yours" is surely the signo of an honest and
confident thinker.
No, it's about not wasting your time on evil people.
For example:
It's a lot easier to tell yourself that everyone who disagrees
with you is evil if you go out of your way to make sure you don't
learn anything about them and their ideas.
Like a said, not what a confidence thinker does.
Coward. I'll go toe to toe with anyone, because I have the courage
of my convictions, and I'm not afraid to broaden my understanding
and learn from others.
Is it hard to pat yourself on the back while sicking your fingers
in your ears?
I've argued with you several times, joe, and you've already
shown that you think it's okay to attack people.
Unless you'd like to tell me how some humans have rights that other
humans don't have, I'm just fine with leaving you be--I don't owe
you a damn thing.
Attack people - you mean like calling them evil for disagreeing with you about politics?
Like kidnapping people if they don't find your method of helping the poor agreeable enough to surrender their property.
"If the money supply is inflating so fast, where's it going? I think they're pumping up a leaky balloon."
It is going to the production arm of the US, China, India, Japan, Germany. They recycle most of it back to the US to buy Treasury bonds, which depresses the interest rate paid on the Tbonds.
Why doesn't the increased demand for the bonds bid their rates
up rather than down? We know it bids up their
price, so why wouldn't the issuer capture some of
that by raising rates?
As to gun ownership's being a test of freedom loving, would making
fireworks count as an acceptable alternative?
What is wrong with Reason and the rest of the Libertarians is that they think they are engaging in clever political maneuvering by siding with the socialist Democrat party. ("Ooh, we're so real politic.") It would be better if you did like us libertarian Republicans and work as part of a coaliton of like-minded groups to achieve goals we can all agree on.
"Because all the indicators were still pointing north in
2000"
No they weren't.
The stock market downturn began in March 2000.
"What is wrong with Reason and the rest of the Libertarians
is that they think they are engaging in clever political
maneuvering by siding with the socialist Democrat
party."
Not true. Many of us are merely stating our preference for a
portion of the Democratic platform, usually the social issues. Of
course, since the Democrats have fallen in bed with the GOP on many
privacy issues this relationship is strained from the outset. But
the more theocratic, big spending and anti-privacy the GOP becomes,
the less motivation there is to support them.
I simply don't see why corporations should have any say in politics. I would love to hear the rationale for this.
I simply don't see why unions should have any say in politics. I would love to hear the rationale for this.
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