Paul Had a Point

Non-interventionists have been remarkably prescient. So why are they still shunted to the fringe?

Radley Balko | May 23, 2007

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• The Cato Institute's Gene Healy: "After our quick victory, and after the "Arab street" fails to rise, you're going to hear a lot of self-congratulation from the hawks. But the fallout from this war is likely to be long-term, in the form of a protracted and messy occupation, and an enhanced terrorist recruitment base."

• Ted Galen Carpenter, also of Cato: "The inevitable U.S. military victory would not be the end of America's troubles in Iraq. Indeed, it would mark the start of a new round of headaches. Ousting Saddam would make Washington responsible for Iraq's political future and entangle the United States in an endless nation-building mission beset by intractable problems."

Now contrast those forecasts—both made before the war—with predictions from the war's architects:

• Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz: "We're dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon."

• Vice President Dick Cheney: "I don't think it would be that tough a fight."

• White House economic advisor Glenn Hubbard: "Costs of any [Iraq] intervention would be very small."

• OMB Director Mitch Daniels: "The United States is committed to helping Iraq recover from the conflict, but Iraq will not require sustained aid."

This war is now going on its fifth year. Some are predicting its total cost will exceed $1 trillion.

It's striking just how right people who think like Ron Paul were before the war, and how incredibly wrong those now piling on him were. And yet Paul Wolfowitz was promoted to head the World Bank; Dick Cheney is still vice president; and Mitch Daniels is the governor of Indiana.

The people who were wrong were rewarded. And without any sense of shame, they go right on mocking the people who were right.

Radley Balko is a senior editor for reason. A version of this article originally appeared at FoxNews.com.

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