Superhuman Imagination

Vernor Vinge on science fiction, the Singularity, and the state

Mike Godwin from the May 2007 issue

(Page 2 of 3)

A second possibility, less likely in my opinion, is that maybe it will turn out that whatever the hardware power of our new computers, we simply never figure out how to connect the parts. In one form or another, I think this is where most thoughtful skepticism re­­sides.

Still less likely, but possible: Maybe we have drastically misestimated the raw hardware power of what we carry between our ears. Hans Moravec had a very nice estimate of our “raw hardware power” back in 1990 in his book Mind Children. His estimate puts us humans way ahead of contemporary machines (and makes predictions of contemporary failures of A.I. [artificial intelligence] quite plausible). On the other hand, his estimate, together with the possibility that Moore’s Law [the observation that the computing power of new microprocessors doubles every 18 months to two years] continues for a decade or two, makes it plausible that very interesting A.I. developments might occur before 2030.

On the other hand, if one looks inside an individual neuron, one could argue that it is much more computationally competent than a microprocessor. This is without invoking quantum or mystical hocus-pocus. There was a researcher at the Thinking Machines meeting in 1992 who saw the possibility of computation taking place via the neuron’s microtubules.

Certainly if one looks at all the stuff going on inside any cell, there is very significant computation. The question is, how much of that is needed to support the brain’s ensemble behavior? The high-end estimates of neuron computational competence could push the Moore’s Law crossover point significantly further into the future.

Reason: What has changed since 1993? What has turned out different or slower or faster than you expected?

Vinge: In the 1993 essay, I categorized approaches to the Singularity into four groups. As time passes, some of these paths seem more likely than others, though that could change again and again, and the ultimate outcome will probably be some combination of approaches. The most intriguing trend over the last few years has been the interactions between people, networks, computers, and databases, perhaps an ensemble critter very much like [biophysicist and science writer] Gregory Stock’s “metaman” [Stock’s name for a “superorganism” consisting of humanity plus its technology].

At the same time, we are at the beginning of an era where computer power and storage is plausibly comparable to that of some animals. Before, this coming parity was simply a talking point. But now, questions about awareness in machines—and in people—should be subject to new insights. Thus, I’d expect these sorts of discussions to become increasingly substantive.

Reason: I increasingly encounter the assumption that consciousness is going to emerge from the growth of processing power and networks.

Vinge: I don’t want to make the assumption that it would just naturally happen. Mucho human genius will likely be necessary to “connect the parts” for the first time, even if the connections are simply the setup for intellectual growth. However, hardware parity between humans and computers is at least a reason for being more optimistic about the possibility of success.

Reason: Some philosophers have suggested that you need to have an actual body, with feelings, to have an emergent consciousness. Is this view just meat-space parochialism?

Vinge: Possibly. But in fact, this has been a selling point for mobile-robot research. Maybe emotions arise most naturally out of specializing broadly defined goals to threats and promises in the complexity of the real world. Of course, this is not to imply that the computer itself must be in the mobile.

Reason: You speculated about the Singularity in your novel Marooned in Realtime, the sequel to The Peace War (1984). Did it inform your writing of The Peace War as well?

Vinge: It’s informed most of my writing back to my short story “Bookworm, Run!” [1965], though I didn’t use the term Singularity until a panel discussion at AAAI ’82 [the 1982 conference of the American Association of Artificial Intelligence]. In the case of The Peace War, I think it’s there, but far offstage.

Reason: What are the sources of your vision of the Singularity?

Vinge: It’s a truism that science fiction is always about the present. That is, the stories are simply a reflection of the concerns of the era in which they are written. That’s a good insight, but imprecise: Science fiction is almost always a reflection of the author’s present. Looking back, I see how I was immersed in stories that pointed in this direction, including stories by Olaf Stapledon, Poul Anderson, and John W. Campbell Jr. Entire generations of science fiction writers had enchanted me with visions of how different the future could be. Many of these writers had speculated on the consequences of superintelligence. The notion that those consequences might be in the near future was often missing, but by the time of my childhood it was obvious to anyone of overweening optimism.

Comments

nfl jerseys|11.6.10 @ 2:41AM|#

bre

UggBoots On Sale|11.25.10 @ 9:10AM|#

VXVF

CHEAPWOMEN UGG BOOTS|11.25.10 @ 9:14AM|#

FGFG

قبلة الوداع|9.8.11 @ 6:15PM|#

thank u