Whip Flogged!

John J. Pitney discusses what Tom DeLay's fall from grace means for American politics. A Reason interview

Tim Cavanaugh | September 29, 2005

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Pitney: There does not seem to be that kind of linkage, at least not yet. Frist's problems appear to be totally different from DeLay's. Then again, who knows what lies under Capitol rocks?

Reason: So far the president has not made any public hand-washing gesture with regard to DeLay, even though the investigation has been brewing for a couple years, and White House spokesman Scott McClellan was more or less supportive in his comments yesterday. In scandals like this, how long does it typically take before the party has to throw the damaged politician to the wolves?

Pitney: At times like this, politicians light a candle, turn toward Montpelier, Virginia, and say a prayer of thanks to James Madison. Under the separation of powers, President Bush can say that the change of leadership is a congressional matter that does not involve the White House. Under bicameralism, GOP senators can say that it is a House matter that does not involve the Senate. Meanwhile, House Republicans will maintain a loyalty to DeLay—unless and until they see him as a drag to their own survival. At that point they would say Tom Who?

Reason: What kind of damage could this do to the Republicans, and how can they minimize it?

Pitney: Republicans should be glad that they retained the conference rule requiring indicted leaders to step aside. Without that rule, DeLay might have felt the temptation to hang on, thus giving Democrats a big fat target. Until interest in the case dies down, expect the House Republicans to avoid extensive exposure to the national press.

Reason: Conversely, how do the Democrats capitalize on this? In hindsight it seems like the resignations of Wright and Tony Coelho and the 1992 House Bank scandal set the stage for the 1994 Gingrich revolution, in the sense that the party controlling Congress was seen as corrupt and out-of-touch, which allowed the challengers to flip things with a strong message. Do we have two out of three here?

Pitney: The 1994 upheaval resulted from long-term forces, including the realignment of the South. The election of Bill Clinton opened a window for Republicans to become the outside reformers. The fundamentals do not point to massive Democratic gains in 2006. Nevertheless, they could still make serious inroads if they can develop a sense of what they're for, not just what they're against. They don't need a Contract, but they do need some ideas other than outbidding the GOP on Katrina aid.