How Many Votes Has the Pope?

John Paul II, George W. Bush and the Changing Catholic Voter

Patrick Basham | April 15, 2005

(Page 2 of 2)

In June 2004, Bush dashed off to the Vatican to meet John Paul II to exhort the pope to encourage American bishops to criticize Kerry's stance on various Catholic-sensitive social issues. At that meeting, the pope told Bush, "I follow with great appreciation your commitment to the promotion of moral values in American society, particularly with regard to respect for life and family." The Bush campaign subsequently placed the pope's picture on its campaign website under the headline "Catholics for Bush." The Republican National Committee web site contained entire sections tailored to conservative Catholic voters.

Over four years, the Bush campaign built a nationwide network of more than 50,000 precinct level Catholic "team leaders" who introduced fellow church going Catholics to the Republican Party. Catholic outreach operations included direct mail sent to parish registry lists, literature tables outside church sanctuaries, and email lists that publicized the Republican Party's pro-life position.

But does Republican electoral success confirm that the more pivotal Catholic voter is becoming a more socially conservative voter? No, it does not. In fact, traditional Catholics are not gaining in numbers. Regular church going, traditionalist Catholics remain a minority. Nevertheless, they are the Catholics most receptive to papal (and presidential) influence. For example, 60 percent of conservative Catholics believe in papal infallibility. The secret to conservative Catholics' electoral influence is that, in addition to being disproportionately located in the electorally critical rural and suburban Midwest, they have become far more politically active on their high priority issues.

The president and the pope's mutual emphasis upon social issues emboldened these Catholics to abandon voting habits based upon traditional bread-and-butter issues and, instead, to base voting more upon social concerns. Consequently, traditionalists increasingly perceive moral conservatism to be the political instrument of their faith. By contrast, liberal Catholics remain largely Democratic in their voting habits but suffer electorally as they are not nearly as politically organized or mobilized.

In terms of party identification, the unambiguous trend is for Catholics to identify less with the Democrats and more with the Republicans. In 1960, 82 percent of Catholics identified themselves as Democrats. Twenty years later, only 46 percent identified with the Democrats. In the mid-1980s, Democrats led Republicans among white Catholics by 7 points in party identification; by the mid-1990s, the gap had largely disappeared.

In addition to responding to both papal and presidential political marketing campaigns, Catholics are drifting towards the Republicans for sociological reasons. Catholics become more Republican as they become better educated, wealthier, and more suburban. Interestingly, the Republicans have experienced the steadiest Catholic vote gains among younger Americans, particularly males, who are most attracted to the Republican rhetoric espousing fiscal conservatism.

John Paul II's political influence extended beyond Catholic America. This reflects in no small measure a steady decline in anti-Catholic bigotry. Opinion polls reveal that evangelicals viewed Pope John Paul II more favorably than either the Rev. Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson. It also reflects conservative evangelicals' newfound willingness to ally themselves with conservative Catholics on social issues. In recent years, leading conservative religious leaders heaped praise upon the pope's role in and influence in the abortion and gay marriage debates.

The forthcoming selection of a new pope will reverberate throughout American politics on issues such as abortion, euthanasia, gay rights, the faith-based initiative, judicial nominations, and stem cell research. Ominously, perhaps, for the Republicans, the electoral deal between Catholic America and the Republican party is only partially sealed. A new pope could potentially unravel this socially conservative coalition.

Some conservative Republicans await the white smoke above the Vatican, signifying the successful conclusion of the papal conclave, with equal trepidation to many liberal Catholics. A more theologically liberal pontiff -- or one as conservative but less politically interventionist, or simply less charismatic than John Paul II -- may provide an opportunity for the Democrats to regain some lost ground. Conversely, many on the Karl Rove wing of the Republican Party pray nightly for a conservative Latin American pope to encourage further Hispanic defections, or at least a reliably conservative choice.

In assessing Pope John Paul II's impact upon American politics, one is struck by the contrast between his influences in different parts of the world. He clearly helped to advance the cause of political and economic liberty in Eastern Europe. However, his political contribution within the American context advanced those who advocate a greater role for the state in shepherding individuals all the way through their private lives.

Some 175 years ago, Catholics comprised less than 5 percent of our nation's population. At the time, the political sociologist Alexis de Tocqueville presciently noted Catholicism's propensity to flourish on American soil. Today, there are more than 65 million Catholics in the United States, totaling 23 percent of the nation's population.

That President Bush may owe his current position to the growth and growing influence of Catholic America demonstrates the strength of modern American pluralism and traditionalism's continuing resonance among an important segment of the American electorate, a traditionalism that Pope John Paul II both visibly embodied and assiduously nurtured.