The recent trips to Europe by Bush and Rice seem to have improved matters further. "There are still strong anti-Bush feelings, but even those were tempered somewhat by his visit to Europe," Craig Kennedy, the German Marshall Fund president, said in an interview after returning recently from Germany. "You know what Bush did really, really well on this trip? He showed he could listen to Europeans."
To them, this was a novel concept. In his first term, Bush demonstrated the worst ear for international public diplomacy since—well, since ever, come to think of it. For Europeans, just having him come and pay attention was a shock. "When you have someone coming to you and listening to you and trying to make nice, it pays," said Justin Vaisse, a French historian of trans-Atlantic relations, in a phone interview from his office at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris. "It was certainly a success."
The success of the Iraqi election in January was a further jolt to Europe. "I think people were shocked by the size of the turnout, by the obvious passion for democracy, and also by the small number of deaths," Kennedy says. "Based on that, Iraq is off to a pretty good start, and Europeans noticed that."
It also did not escape the attention of either the Bush administration or the Europeans that trans-Atlantic cooperation has achieved striking results in Ukraine and Lebanon. The administration has recently begun working more closely with Europeans to end Iran's nuclear weapons program. "It's not a new era, but it is a new phase," Vaisse says. The second-term Bush is still Bush, "but with new methods and more pragmatism. It's much easier to work with this second administration."
One swallow does not make spring, but the good news is this: Bush appears to have gone from ignoring foreign opinion to actively (if inconsistently) cultivating it, and he seems not half bad at the job, when he puts his mind to it. Just as important, foreign opinion has responded, at least in Europe. If the warming trends hold, Bush may be able to replace the downward spiral of his first term with an upward one in his second.
Now, don't get too cheerful, Ms. Hughes. The man who in 2004 seized upon his opponent's use of the phrase "global test" to mock the very idea of multilateralism will not change his spots in 2005. But he may change his tactics. He can be offensive to foreign sensibilities, but he can also be charming, as he proved in Europe. Your job, Ms. Hughes, is to encourage his charm offensive.
© Copyright 2005 National Journal
Jonathan Rauch is a senior writer and columnist for National Journal and a frequent contributor to Reason. This article was originally published by National Journal.
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