Deaths, Lies, and Videotape

The UN deconstructs the Hariri assassination

Michael Young | March 28, 2005

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While this reality is obvious to the vast majority of Lebanese, its inclusion in an international document is a considerable victory for the opposition, as is Fitzgerald's account of how Bashar Assad threatened Hariri last August, when he forced the reluctant prime minister to vote in favor of an extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's mandate:

According to these testimonies, Mr. Hariri reminded Mr. Assad of his pledge not to seek an extension for Mr. Lahoud's term, and Mr. Assad replied that there was a policy shift and that the decision was already taken. He added that Mr. Lahoud should be viewed as his personal representative in Lebanon and that "opposing him is tantamount to opposing Assad himself". He then added that he (Mr. Assad) "would rather break Lebanon over the heads of [Mr.] Hariri and [Druze leader Walid Jumblatt] than see his word in Lebanon broken". According to the testimonies, Mr. Assad then threatened both Mr. Hariri and Mr. [Jumblatt] with physical harm if they opposed the extension for Mr. Lahoud.

This particular passage takes on particular importance in light of what the Fitzgerald team recommends, namely the formation of "an international independent investigation" to look into the circumstances of the Hariri assassination, which would have "an executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks." The UN Security Council is set to discuss this proposal starting tomorrow, and it seems virtually certain that it will be adopted, though the parameters of the investigation's actions and where it will lead legally remain to be negotiated. Certainly, among the first people to be interrogated, one presumes, would be Assad himself and Lahoud.

Fitzgerald's conclusions also include a passage that shows the extent to which the world has changed on issues of sovereignty: "[I]t is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community."

Barring such a transformation, the UN report admits, an international investigation would probably lead nowhere, since the Lebanese would do everything to hide the truth. But the onus for the investigation to succeed is clearly on Beirut, which is asked to reform its various security agencies.

Though Lahoud has declared Lebanon would collaborate with the UN, there is as yet no sign he intends, or is able, to fulfill its request to reform the intelligence apparatus. After all, one of the individuals whom the opposition considers most responsible for the state of affairs leading to Hariri's assassination is the head of the Presidential Guard, Mustapha Hamdan. It was notable that Hamdan, who happens to be a Muslim, was present at the Easter Mass Sunday attended by Lahoud, a clear sign of presidential support, though both men could have also been using the moment to appreciate the mystery of political resurrection.

If so, they're unlikely to succeed. An international inquiry into Hariri's murder, if it is approved, is a dangerous virus for the Syrian regime, both with respect to its authority in Lebanon and at home. While an investigation may take time, it will very soon start eating away at Assad's credibility and that of his Lebanese friends. Its progress might also be used by the United Nations as leverage to secure Syrian concessions in the short term, particularly on the timing of a military pullout from Lebanon. There is a good chance that legal action will be forthcoming, and that it will target those at the very top in Beirut and Damascus.

The UN team wrote that Hariri's assassination had "an earthquake-like impact on Lebanon." Indeed it did, but the Fitzgerald report has all the makings of the tsunami that follows the earthquake. The Syrians will try to brace themselves for the impact, but that may well prove to be in vain. Rafik Hariri's death was just too big a bite for Bashar Assad.