I Fear...Spending Won't Be Restrained
John Berthoud
By the time the books are closed on the current fiscal year, federal spending will have risen by roughly 20 percent in real terms since the last budget signed into law by Bill Clinton. This four-year spending explosion has not been limited to the areas of defense and homeland security. Spending at the Department of Agriculture will have risen in real terms by an estimated 19 percent, at the Department of Labor by 40 percent, and at the Department of Education by 74 percent.
The entire eight years of the Bush administration are thus unlikely ever to be seen as a landmark in the fight for smaller government. At best, a concerted effort at spending restraint in the second term will make a difference between a so-so record and a historically disastrous one.
The Bush administration has spent no political capital in the fight against big government in the first term. Instead, it has opted to focus on spin (talking about how Washington has ratcheted down spending growth to 1 percent--true only if you exclude 82 percent of the budget). Bush may have no greater desire to use political capital on this important fight in a second term. But continuing to turn a blind eye to congressional spending will jeopardize the president's tax agenda. Given that taxes were one area of substantial domestic policy differentiation between Republicans and Democrats in 2004, if that distinction evaporates much of the Republican voting base may find better things to do when the next election rolls around.
John Berthoud is president of the National Taxpayers Union.
I Hope...We'll Keep Taxes Down by Eliminating Corporate Welfare and Entitlements for the Rich
Tyler Cowen
Commentators frequently refer to the Bush "tax cuts," but this is a misnomer. Government spending has risen sharply, so our taxes are going up in the future, especially once you consider the implicit liabilities from Social Security and Medicare. Bush has given us a "tax shift," combined with a long-run net tax increase. We simply haven't yet been told which taxes are going up and when.
To keep American taxes at reasonable levels I would eliminate all farm subsidies, tariffs, quotas, and price supports, along with other forms of corporate welfare. More important, I would repeal the Medicare prescription drug bill, slowly raise the retirement age for Social Security and Medicare, and introduce means testing for benefits.
Tyler Cowen is an economics professor at George Mason University, director of the James Buchanan Center and the Mercatus Center, and author of the forthcoming Markets and Cultural Voices (University of Michigan Press).
I Fear...Deficit Worries Will Bring Tax Increases
Grover Norquist
The one mistake that could cripple a second Bush term is to accept the campaign promise to "cut the deficit in half in four years" as a central goal of the administration. The deficit is an uninteresting and unimportant number that is the difference between two very important numbers: total federal government spending, and total federal taxes.
The true cost of government--and the correct target--is total federal spending as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product. To reduce government spending as a percentage of the economy, Republicans should first cut taxes to increase economic growth and then restrain the growth of federal spending below the growth of the economy. Democrats cannot compete on a political field of battle dominated by pro-growth tax cuts and spending restraint; they are against both and have no alternatives.
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