Iraq Is No Vietnam

But Vietnam holds lessons for Iraq

Jonathan Rauch | September 15, 2004

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America has significant influence on Iraq's security and economy, Eisenstadt says. "But on the political plane, we really have a limited role to play there."

The point is not that the United States is destined to lose in Iraq as it lost in Vietnam. The point is that the bottom line is the same: Only if the people of the country have a government that is worth supporting and capable of self-defense can stability withstand America's inevitable withdrawal. "Political development is prime," says Nash. "This is about politics, not military."

To call the situation challenging is an understatement. To some extent, Washington may undermine an Iraqi government's legitimacy in the very act of supporting it. Worse, says Ivo H. Daalder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, the presence of the U.S. military stimulates the insurgency. "That's the dilemma. We may be part of the problem, but without us things might get even worse." The dilemma, he adds, is inherent in the dynamics of the situation. Changing presidents, commanders, tactics, or "how much electricity you run" does not fundamentally alter the equation.

Fortunately, the example of Vietnam also provides cause for hope. In Vietnam, the United States failed to understand the war's political dimension until too late. By the time Washington woke up and changed tactics (with some success), the people of South Vietnam and the United States had irretrievably lost confidence in their respective governments' ability to win the war.

By contrast, April's double-whammy uprisings by both Sunnis and Shiites had something of the shock effect of Tet— but early enough in the conflict to do some good. Until then, says Eisenstadt, American officials and commanders still sometimes talked as if the rebels could be dealt a knockout military blow, preferably before the handover of sovereignty. "Since then there's been a very steep learning curve and we've come a long way," he says. "There is an emerging Iraqi politics now which forces them to act and be seen as acting as independent actors pursuing Iraqi interests which are not always identical to our own interests. And actually I think the Iraqi government has done very well and we've adjusted very well, after a very rough start."

Better, at least, than in Vietnam.