Balls

The joy of watching ideas win.

Matt Welch from the December 2003 issue

(Page 2 of 2)

Which may sound like evidence for Richard Griffin's description of sabermetrics as a "cult," but that charge misses a crucial point. The analytic revolution thrived precisely because from its early days people argued passionately with each other. As important, they yielded when the better research or theory won. Much of the parlor reaction to Moneyball has focused on questions such as: What happens when the rest of baseball catches up to Beane's fanatical emphasis on on-base percentage? And why on earth would he give away his trade secrets?

The first question ignores the distorting effects of Lewis' book. He chose to highlight Oakland's strong emphasis on offensive patience, partly because it's important and partly because it presented to him cerebral underdog subjects such as castoff catcher turned starting first baseman Scott Hatteberg and submarine pitcher Chad Bradford. Sabermetrics at heart is about analytical thinking, not one particular statistical category. Perhaps the most significant organizational change the A's have implemented over the years is a scientific physical program to prevent what the stat geeks have long identified as a crucial problem: arm injuries to pitchers. Critics of Beane and Moneyball say both are piggybacking on the success of Oakland's three great young pitchers (Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder), but it's entirely plausible that one or more of the three would have blown out their elbows in nonsabermetric organizations.

As the A's cruised to another first place finish this year, an odd thing happened: they did it with pitching and fleet-footed defense, not their on-base percentage (which ranked near the bottom of the American League). Quietly, and without the naysayers noticing it, the team has gotten rid of fat slow white guys like Matt Stairs, Jason Giambi, and Jeremy Giambi, while importing low-on-base-percentage defensive wizards such as Chris Singleton. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox, who hired Bill James and sabermetric wunderkind Voros McCracken in the off season, had a record-setting, playoff-bound offensive season using forgotten players only stat geeks could love. While the Tracy Ringolsbys of the world stew in their juices, Beane and his fellow travelers are having the last laugh.

"A few years ago," he told the Oakland Tribune recently, "people wondered if we pitched well enough and if we played good enough defense. It's a story untold. All you have to do is score enough runs."