Deterring the Egomaniac Dictator
War is not necessary to keep a street thug in check.
John Mueller
Brink Lindsey wants to argue that Saddam Hussein is reckless, but even he concedes that "no country, not even one as rash as Iraq, would dare to use weapons of mass destruction against the United States because of the threat of overwhelming retaliation." That is, it is entirely possible to deter Iraq. This deterrent would surely hold for an attack on Israel, which has an enormous retaliatory capacity and an even greater incentive to respond than the U.S. I would suggest that it holds as well for just about any substantial military provocation that Saddam might consider.
It is true that much of the world managed to contain its outrage when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980. But that was because the attack was directed against Khomeini's seemingly expansionary theocracy, which was seen to be a bigger threat at the time. It is simply not true that "the world" was "all too happy to acquiesce in Kuwait's disappearance" when Iraq invaded it in 1990. There was almost universal condemnation of the attack, even from Iraq's erstwhile friend and ally, the Soviet Union, and the debate was over tactics: whether to use war immediately to push back the aggression or to wait to see if sanctions could do the trick.
Reaction to a third Saddam adventure would surely follow the Kuwait pattern, except that the troops would now go all the way to Baghdad. Moreover, as I've suggested, Saddam's army, which even he finds unreliable, would be unlikely to carry out patently suicidal orders even if they were issued -- as it showed in the Gulf War of 1991.
Lindsey's appreciation for Saddam's egomania is fully justified. It's just that egomania is standard equipment for your average Third World tyrant. Indonesia's Sukarno haughtily withdrew from the United Nations and set up his own competing operation in Djakarta (only China joined); Egypt's Nasser (Saddam's sometime inspiration), who planned to unite and dominate the Arab world, died quietly in bed after being humiliated by Israeli arms; Khomeini's global revolution has essentially been voted out even in its Iranian homeland; and Cuba's Castro probably still hopes to become the new Simón Bolívar of Latin America. Self-important street thugs like Saddam Hussein love to flail and fume in the company of sycophants, but that doesn't make them any less pathetic.
We are left with the warning that Saddam will give weapons of mass destruction to shadowy terrorists to deliver for him. Lindsey is unusual in suggesting that Saddam might do this with nuclear weapons (which, of course, he doesn't have and perhaps never will have). Most observers assume he would selfishly keep them himself to help deter an attack on Iraq.
The case is more plausible for chemical or biological weapons -- which, however, have proven to be so difficult to deploy effectively that it is questionable whether they should be considered weapons of "mass destruction" at all, as Gregg Easterbrook pointed out in the October 7 issue of The New Republic. But terrorists may be after these weapons anyway, and the question is whether it is worth a war to eliminate one of many potential sources. Moreover, as Daniel Benjamin noted in the October 31 Washington Post, the best CIA assessment is that Saddam and Al Qaeda are most likely to bed together if his regime is imminently threatened by the preventive war (it would be in no reasonable sense an act of pre-emption) that Lindsey so ardently advocates.
Weighing the Risks
There's no invisible hand to protect us.
Brink Lindsey
I argue that Iraq is a serious threat to the surrounding region and to us. John Mueller disagrees. I contend that toppling the current Iraqi regime will aid in the broader campaign against Islamist terrorism. Mueller worries that an invasion of Iraq will backfire.
Risks of action, risks of inaction: Which are greater? Solid facts are few and far between; we're forced to make our way based on hypotheticals and maybes and historical analogies. How can we have any confidence that we are weighing the risks intelligently?
One point in my favor is that I am actually weighing the risks. That's why I support military action against Iraq: I believe the risks of inaction outweigh the risks of action.
I am not a reflexive hawk. I opposed our recent military adventures in Panama, Haiti, Somalia, and the Balkans. I would not support military action against, say, Burma, merely because its government is despicable. Odious as it is, the Burmese regime poses no significant threat to its neighbors or to us. I would not have supported making war on China in the 1960s, even though its rulers were wildly anti-American and seeking to develop a nuclear arsenal. Despite the threat China posed to us, the risks of acting were far too great (especially the possibility of an escalation with the Soviets) and the price of victory against such a formidable and fanatical adversary would have been far too high. In that situation, deterrence and diplomacy (in particular, playing the Chinese and Soviets against each other) were the better options.
So on the general question of preventive war -- whether to make war now in order to avoid a worse war later -- my position is: It depends on the circumstances. The decision whether to go to war should turn on a pragmatic assessment of relative risks. Sometimes the balance will tilt in favor of action, sometimes not. In the particular case of Iraq in 2002, I believe the balance tilts strongly toward action.
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time.
Eric H|12.19.09 @ 6:08AM|#
Should We Invade Iraq?
No
nfl jerseys|11.13.10 @ 12:46AM|#
nxhf
SheepskinUGG boots|11.22.10 @ 2:41AM|#
Women Uggs are achievable in the short styles appropriate and consistent. The variations of Ugg Sheepskin Boots are the full range of men and women. ?
Sheepskin Boots Sale|11.22.10 @ 2:45AM|#
surprised Uggs Australia Outlet and added the central grill without them across the breadth of the direction of oxygen there is an agreement and there can absolute sun. Ugg Boots Online Store boots affidavit of the auction,