Hot Heads

The latest global warming predictions are hype, not hard data.

Ronald Bailey | January 24, 2001

(Page 2 of 2)

Perhaps the best way to think of the Kyoto Protocol is as an attempt to plan the entire world’s energy future for the next century. Just how quixotic this is becomes obvious when you think of how such an effort would have fared at the beginning of the 20^th century. Even the smartest council of scientists and politicians in 1900 would have been unable to project how energy would be used today. In 1900, there were essentially no cars and no electric lighting. Telephones were rarities and airplanes, refrigerators, televisions, radios, and air conditioners were unknown. Virtually no one had central heating, and computers and other electronic gadgets were not even on the drawing board. The list of such energy-using inventions that are central to our daily lives is nearly endless.

It is simply ludicrous to think that a 1900 version of the IPCC could have planned our energy supplies for today. Given the relentless pace of technological change, today's IPCC is arguably in an even worse position to predict what the global energy mix will be 100 years from now.

But don't expect the IPCC to admit as much. "The United States is way off meeting its targets," scolded Watson. "A country like China has done more, in my opinion, than a country like the United States to move forward in economic development while remaining environmentally sensitive." Say what? China has been developing economically at a blistering pace, but breathing the air in Shanghai is like smoking a pack of cigarettes per day--and that's not to mention continuing deforestation and the much-loathed Three Gorges Dam project. Perhaps more to the point, under the Kyoto Protocol, China, like most developing countries, is not obliged to cut back on any greenhouse gas emissions whatsoever.

"They present the summary as a consensus," says Colorado State's Pielke. "But it’s really a selective advocacy document. It’s not science. They ignore data and criticisms that don’t fit their hypothesis of atmospheric warming."

So what is really happening with global climate? The summary correctly concludes that during the 20^th century, global average temperatures have increased by around 1 degree Fahrenheit and the sea level has risen 4 to 8 inches. Most scientists agree that the carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels accounts for some, but not all, of the increase in temperatures that has occurred in the 20^th century.

And what about the future? The satellite data are telling us the results of an ongoing global climate experiment. Projecting the satellite trends into the future means that the world can expect about 1 degree Celsius of warming by 2100. That's not nothing, but it's also not the sort of prediction that conjures scare headlines.