Letters

From the March 2000 issue

(Page 4 of 4)

Donovan Dennis
Moorpark, CA
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Thomas Hazlett replies: Many thanks for these (and other) thoughtful letters on "Hayek's Heroes." As for the areas of agreement, I agree. As for the areas of disagreement, I shirk. As I noted in the column, my take on D-Day was drawn from Stephen Ambrose's history. The interesting points of contention would be usefully debated with Professor Ambrose. I deserve no credit and scamper from any blame--a cowardly baby boomer contrast to the heroic actions on display June 6, 1944.

What Might Have Been

I very much enjoyed reading Charles Paul Freund's article on counterfactual history ("Spilt History," December). It was therefore especially disappointing that he neglected to mention the one work that does the most effective job of countering the deterministic in historical studies, Karl Popper's The Open Society and Its Enemies.

Popper makes an explicit connection between determinism and Marxism/totalitarianism that would strongly support many of Mr. Freund's points. His work is also important because it makes the same connection between deterministic history (historical teleology, or historicism) and the misunderstanding of science that justifies historicism as having more authority. The phenomenon, I believe, is known as "physics envy," and it is entirely misplaced.

My own hook for this is Isaac Asimov's classic Foundation trilogy, in which he invents "psychohistory." Psychohistory treats history mathematically once there are a sufficient number of individuals acting, just like thermodynamics makes deterministic predictions about sufficiently large numbers of atoms. The difference between molecules and people is, it seems, trivial.

This is a complex and wide subject, involving both common expectations for our lives and the sometimes silly "science wars" in the academies. It is endlessly fascinating, and I want to express my appreciation that Mr. Freund did a good job of making the case that historicism is tied to this misunderstanding of science.

C. David Noziglia
Washington, DC
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Charles Paul Freund's article on "what ifs" was a model of cool erudition and refreshing open-mindedness--just the sort of work one looks for in REASON. If anything, he may have underestimated the significance of "what if" thinking in guiding our policies. I'm thinking in particular about Vietnam and the "Vietnam syndrome."

What if LBJ had possessed a crystal ball in 1964 and had foreseen all the agony, outrage, and brutality that his Vietnam policy would produce and, most important, the eventual defeat of our side? Doves say that LBJ would never have embraced such a fate. Rather, he would have found a way to stay out. Hawks say LBJ would have or should have upped the ante militarily and the U.S. would have prevailed.

Both sides agree that LBJ made a big mistake. Most of the debate has been whether he was blinded by some personal flaw or was fooled by his generals. I've heard many people assert that either policy would have been better than the no-peace/no-victory strategy we actually followed. This is a sort of double counterfactual built on a super horror of the factual.

In our can-do country, an unhappy result must be the result of a mistake. I suspect LBJ would not have taken either alternative, no matter how much he saw of the horror that awaited.

Steve France
Cabin John, MD
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