Hurd was basing his figure not on the risk to kids under 10 but on the risk to those under 12, which is a significant difference; the risk to youngsters falls dramatically with each year they age. According to Table 2-14 of the NHTSA report "Fatality Reduction by Air Bags," the reduction in risk for kids under 12 is 28 percent (not the 22 percent Hurd stated).
Kazman's figure is derived from an analysis based on Table 2-12 of the same report, which the report itself says is problematic because "the `control group' data set of child passengers in cars with driver air bags is itself rather small, and...may be contributing to the sampling error." The report recommends instead relying on Table 2-14, which unfortunately does not break down the data by age as thoroughly as Table 2-12. That 120 percent figure is the clearest conclusion the NHTSA report can come to about the 1-10 age group, even though the report itself says that figure isn't the most reliable.
The whole scary statistics game can be a dead end. We do know that airbags have killed children. The government ought not force that risk--whatever its (still uncertain) magnitude--on parents who don't wish to bear it, or who don't want to be required to keep their youngsters out of the front seat.
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