Fischer would be forced to give up on his theory if he constrained his empirical testing in a more rigorous way. A key plank of his theory, for example, is the link between the growth rate of population and inflation rates. After 1820 the connection between population growth rates and inflation breaks down completely. The late 19th century saw rapid population growth across most of Europe and in the United States, but it also saw persistent deflation, in stark contradiction to the Fischer theory.
What is his response? He prints a diagram showing that in England the growth rate of population is connected with the level of prices. It is a subtle shift, but it completely changes the theory. When we get to the 20th century, Fischer settles on a diagram showing world population and U.S. prices between 1890 and 1990, where we get a nice correlation. Why have we suddenly shifted to world population? We have to do that because, despite the increase in inflation in most of Western Europe after 1970, population growth rates have fallen dramatically. Thus, the same diagram showing prices vs. population for any country in Western Europe for 1890 to 1990, or even for the United States, would show, if anything, an inverse connection between the growth of population and the growth of prices. With techniques such as these you can find empirical confirmation for any theory you want.
Similarly, Fischer's theory demands that inflation be associated with rising inequality. Yet he finds rising inequality in Florence in the period of price stability between 1330 and 1427, and falling inequality in the United States in the inflationary years 1910-1970. Wages always fall in inflations, except for the years 1946-1970. For each of Fischer's laws of inflation, many exceptions can be found and are evident in his own text.
This book seems designed to appeal to a broad audience. There are nicely illustrated maps of Europe in various epochs, and each of the chapters opens with a somewhat forced colorful vignette, from a festival day in Chartres 1224 to the Diamond Jubilee Day of Queen Victoria in 1897. Unfortunately, I can only recommend it to those sophisticated enough about economics to ignore most of the text and instead explore the very useful footnotes and appendices. Unless, that is, you are looking for a present for a favorite uncle with a penchant for strange theories, and you are expecting no imminent nuptials in your family.
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