In 1910, at the peak of the Progressive Era, the federal budget consumed less than 5 percent of national income; it now absorbs 22 percent. Without major changes in entitlement programs, that figure will surpass 30 percent by 2020. How could neo-Progressives credibly sell new spending programs in this atmosphere? Dionne offers no clue.
And what would Dionne's new Progressivism offer the Anxious Middle in programs? Not much. He wants the federal government to provide all the things Clinton hasn't been able to get: universal health care; campaign-finance reforms; expanded government child care, job training, student loans, and national-service programs like AmeriCorps. Enact the 1992 Democratic platform, and all will be well. As Michael Barone pointed out in a Wall Street Journalreview of this book, Dionne has reduced Progressivism to little more than a bundle of petty bribes for voters.
Though Dionne claims to be a pragmatist, he never offers any evidence to demonstrate that his policy proposals would in fact work. Do government job-training schemes increase employment for anyone other than the bureaucrats who administer the programs? Do higher minimum wages help low-skilled workers find better jobs (or any jobs)? Do tough limits on campaign spending give people of modest means greater access to the political process? The record shows they don't. But even though his policy prescriptions don't deliver their intended results, Dionne keeps plugging them.
Dionne can't make a compelling case for a Progressive revival. But supporters of limited government should not take solace. Newt Gingrich's affection for central planning could delay any federal downsizing. And Dionne points out another problem that could derail the capacity of the Republicans (or any other limited-government coalition) to restore constitutional government: the tense and tenuous relationship between cultural conservatives and libertarians.
The "leave us alone" coalition of gun owners, home schoolers, small-business owners, anti-tax advocates, libertarians, and religious conservatives nurtured by conservative strategist Grover Norquist united behind Republican candidates because it had a comm on enemy: Democrats who gladly used government power to tax and spend and regulate their lives. By February 1995, the Christian Coalition's Ralph Reed was echoing David Frum's seminal 1994 book Dead Right , saying that "in an essentially conservative society, traditionalist ends can be advanced through libertarian means."
Yet once the Contract with America passed the House, cultural conservatives stopped leaving us alone. "Family groups" backed the requirement that an anti-violence "V-chip" be placed in every new television set. To the horror of free speech advocates and such high-tech supporters as Reps. Chris Cox (R-Calif.) and Rick White (R-Wash.), the Family Research Council browbeat Republicans into adding criminal penalties to the telecommunications bill for those who distribute information on the Internet that might be "harmful to children." (That provision has been challenged in federal court.)
And while the Christian Coalition says it favors welfare reform, it doesn't want to end federal micromanagement entirely: The coalition opposes the Senate's welfare bill because it would let states decide whether they will continue to give welfare payments to mothers of illegitimate children. An approach more constitutionally consistent would end the programs at the federal level and cut taxes appropriately. Even some pro-family conservatives are frustrated by the Christian Coalition's demands. As one disgusted activist told me, "I'd rather let governors do something stupid [continue to fund illegitimacy] than keep federal bureaucrats in charge of welfare." Other pro-life activists worry that "family caps" might encourage welfare mothers to have abortions. If cultural conservatives merely insist on pulling the levers of power, the libertarian-leaning members of Norquist's coalition (who make up about 20 percent of the electorate, judging from Times Mirror polling data) could walk away.
By shedding their statist tendencies, contemporary Progressives could contribute much to effectively redirecting policy--from devising plans that devolve power from government agencies to individuals and voluntary institutions to replacing Medicare and Medicaid with programs that don't cripple taxpayers. Placing time limits on regulations, an idea promoted in a bill sponsored by Reps. John Mica (R-Fla.) and Jim Chapman (D-Tex.), is another area that seems ripe f or people of "free market Progressive" leanings to investigate. The era of big government may be over, but there's still plenty of work to do.
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