State House Sweep

The real Republican revolution

John Hood from the February 1995 issue

(Page 2 of 2)

So what made the Republicans winners in legislative elections in 1994? Obviously, the Clinton factor and the Foley/Rostenkowski factor worked in their favor, but that doesn't tell the whole story. After all, Democrats have had problems at the top of the ticket before--notably in 1978, 1980, and 1988--without taking as big a bath in state and local races.

Looking closely at election results and public-opinion polls, you can't help but conclude that a true realignment based on issues may be in the offing. "Republican gains this year aren't just a blip on the screen," says William C. Binning, chairman of the political science department at Youngstown State University in Ohio. In his own state, Binning predicts that even if Clinton carries Ohio in the 1996 presidential race, Democrats will claw back only one congressional seat and few legislative seats. Up and down the ballot, he says, the GOP "will remain a majority or competitive party."

Ideologically, Republican legislative gains represent a victory for numerous organizations, think tanks, and activists organized in the past few years to combat government expansion. The term-limits movement, the "wise-use" and property-rights movements, taxpayer associations, gun-rights organizations, and the rejuvenated small-business lobby all helped provide Republican candidates with issues, foot soldiers, and momentum. The state free-market think tank movement, with which I am involved, also provided crucial intellectual ammunition to victorious candidates, as did the handful of national organizations--such as the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Reason Foundation, and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC)--that have done serious work on state policy in recent years. A sign of the times: Rep. Harold Brubaker, the new speaker of the house in North Carolina, is also chairman of ALEC this year.

Of course it's possible that voters, ever fickle, will decide they didn't really want limited government after all and vote in new, smooth-talking demagogues promising new government programs in 1996. But it seems more likely that Bill Kristol, the GOP's new quotemeister, was right on election night when he told ABC's Ted Koppel, "It's a new era in American politics." Kristol wasn't talking about Congress. He was talking about state and local races. That's where lasting political eras, rather than short-lived political fashions, are born.