Now, however, the PRI is represented by Ernesto Zedillo, who may have been Salinas's original favorite for the nomination. The parallels between the two men are striking. Sometimes called "Salinas Lite," Zedillo, 42, is just one year older than Salinas was before getting the nomination (Salinas was the youngest president-elect in Mexico's history). Zedillo also holds a Ph.D. in economics (from Yale). And like Salinas, he has never held elected office, rising instead via appointed economic posts, first in foreign debt management, then at the central bank, and later--again following Salinas's footsteps--as minister of planning and budget.
Like Salinas, Zedillo has a reputation as an exceptionally bright free-marketer. He is intensely disliked by leftists, old-style politicians, and entrenched bureaucrats, many of whose power and positions were reduced or eliminated in the Salinas-Zedillo budgets.
After the budget wars, Salinas appointed Zedillo secretary of education, probably in an attempt to give his protégé political stature. Had Zedillo performed without incident, Salinas might well have chosen him over Colosio. But Zedillo soon became mired in controversy.
PRI traditionalists objected to changes he proposed in the national elementary-school history textbooks. In the revised books, relations with the United States were depicted more favorably, as was the presidency of Porfirio Diaz, the dictator who preceded the Mexican Revolution; certain events supported by the left, such as the student revolt of 1968, were deemphasized or eliminated. Zedillo also incurred the wrath of the national teachers' union--a politically powerful organization traditionally aligned with the bureaucracy--by effectively decentralizing control of the school system.
Not surprisingly, then, Zedillo couldn't win the presidential nomination. He was, however, named Colosio's campaign manager, assuring him of a prominent post in the Colosio administration. And although he was criticized for running a lackluster effort on behalf of Colosio, he is now almost certain to win the August election.
His opposition has all but collapsed. Camacho lost popularity following the assassination, and he blew his chance for the PRI nomination by refusing to support Colosio. He can no longer capitalize effectively on his Chiapas negotiations, since the situation has proven difficult to resolve as it became clear that the rebels were not primarily looking for handouts but free elections and a voice in local government.
On the left, Cardenas will once again be the standard-bearer, and he may lead his party to important victories in local, state, and congressional elections. But he hasn't articulated a consistent platform. And he was unable to capitalize on his credible run for the presidency in 1988, virtually disappearing from public view during the Salinas term. He emerged only twice: once to oppose NAFTA and later to tepidly endorse it.
The opposition from the right, which in 1988 featured the charismatic industrialist Manuel Clouthier, is now divided following his accidental death--under mysterious circumstances--three years ago. In any case, the business community appears to be solidly behind Zedillo. His principal campaign theme has been "Continuity," and he supports tax and regulatory relief for small and mid-size firms. Zedillo faces a tough challenge. Political uncertainty, incomplete liberalization, and the threat of renewed deficit spending have made Mexican markets edgy. Interest rates have risen, stocks are down, and a currency devaluation is a strong possibility, given continued inflation above the U.S. rate.
The situation has been helped, however, by Salinas's making the Mexican central bank independent, which has given the markets more confidence in Mexico's macroeconomic stability. The bank, which became autonomous on April 1, continues to be headed by the internationally respected Miguel Mancera, a staunch fiscal conservative and Yale-educated economist who has led the institution for the past 11 years. Zedillo once worked under Mancera and has since been considered his protégé.
The events toward the end of Salinas's term were unprecedented--a trade treaty blown out of proportion, an armed rebellion, the first political assassination since 1928. Faced with the unfortunate task of selecting a new candidate, then, Salinas seems to have stuck to his own ideology and encouraged history to repeat itself. Six years ago, a bright, young, Ivy-trained economist with no political experience assumed the Mexican presidency under challenging circumstances and visibly improved the country. The same is likely to happen again.
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Apart from state-by-state differences, total school spending in the United States is routinely underestimated because of other measurement problems. As Lieberman and other analysts have pointed out, official school spending statistics leave out an awful lot. A partial list of expenditures excluded from federal data includes business and foundation donations, donated time, pension contributions, the cost of negotiating contracts, the cost of training teachers, remedial education in colleges, judicial costs, out-of-pocket parental expenses, and federal educational programs in departments other than Education (such as Head Start). Since real per-pupil spending even as currently measured shot up 62 percent from 1973 to 1993 (according to the ALEC study), an accurate analysis of total spending would no doubt find an even bigger jump.
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