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Nonetheless, Clinton's political advisers--including David Gergen, who supported Simon-Stenholm as a U.S. News & World Report editor in 1992--recognize that deficit spending is becoming a loser at the ballot box. The Concord Coalition and Ross Perot's United We Stand America can mobilize thousands of people to work against candidates those organizations consider fiscally irresponsible.

Democrats occupy 21 of the 34 Senate seats that are up for election this fall. Four incumbent Democrats will not seek re-election, and seven other incumbents won their last race with 57 percent of the vote or less. If the budget deficit becomes a major issue in the 1994 election, the Simon-Stenholm vote could determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years. And in the House, many of the 66 freshman Democrats ran in 1992 as deficit hawks. Since this Congress has already passed a huge tax increase, incumbents may feel a great deal of pressure to support a balanced-budget amendment as a restraint on future spending.

As this story goes to press, no one can confidently predict how the Senate will vote on Simon-Stenholm. A New York Times head count in early November found that 60 senators favored the amendment, 20 opposed it, and 20 were undecided. Amendment backers claim that the opposition is weakening. For instance, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Jim Sasser (Tenn.), a former opponent, now says he may vote for the amendment. Simon spokesman David Carle thinks the Democratic leadership will not take a position on the amendment.

If Clinton stays on the sidelines, the amendment could pass. Supporters doubt the president can afford to exhaust his political capital to defeat a balanced-budget amendment with his health-care reforms also on the line. Eventually, Clinton will have to support real fiscal reforms. Otherwise, says ATR's Norquist, a successful campaign to defeat Simon-Stenholm would "hail the death of Bill Clinton as a New Democrat."

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